Are Man City now title favourites after win over Arsenal?

By

Manchester City reporter at Etihad Stadium

Erling Haaland's winning goal, the explosion of noise, the reaction at full-time.

Sunday's result at the Etihad Stadium felt like the moment when the momentum of the Premier League title race had fully swung Manchester City's way following their monumental 2-1 victory over leaders Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta's men still remain at the summit but are now clinging on to their position after seeing a nine-point lead chopped down to just three in the space of a week.

City also have a game in hand and can leapfrog Arsenal by beating Burnley at Turf Moor on Wednesday night.

Pep Guardiola's side tend to peak in the final two months of the season and are going through the gears once more.

The Spaniard, though, played down the immense victory by saying: "Still we hope.

"But the truth is that we had a horrible calendar and we are not top of the league. So far they are the best team in England but we extend the chance to fight until the end. They are so competitive, we know that. But at the same time, we are too.

"The table speaks for itself. They have been the best. Congratulations to the guys, but don't lose the focus."

The momentum is now firmly in City's favour - they have lost just once in the past 20 league games while Arsenal are beginning to wither, winning just one of their past six in all competitions.

History shows City are immense during this part of the campaign too and their results in April under their boss provide fabulous reading for their fans and are frightening to those of an Arsenal persuasion.

This month of the calendar remains Guardiola's favourite with his win ratio now standing at 71.4% - 2.53 points per game - while Arteta continues to suffer in his worst month, collecting 1.48 points per game with a win rate success of 39.5%.

The odds - according to statisticians Opta - remain heavily in Arsenal's favour but their chances have fallen from 97% to 73% within a week, while City have leapt from 3% to having a 27% chance of winning the title.

This season, Arsenal have been top of the table for 206 days while City have only sat at the summit for six days - and that was in the first week of the season.

Since Arteta took charge of Arsenal in 2019, City have won the Premier League four times but it is Arsenal who have been at number one for the longest period at 537 days to City's 453.

Arteta said: "We have full belief that we can do it. Today we showed again the team that we are. It's in our hands and it's there for the taking."

The Spaniard added to BBC Radio 5 Live: "We lost an opportunity in terms of the result. They have a game in hand, we have three points.

"Game on because it is a new Premier League."

Last weekend might have given the City players and fans real hope after Arsenal suffered a shock home defeat by Bournemouth and Guardiola's side capitalised with a statement win at Chelsea.

With six games remaining for their side, they will now start to have real belief that a seventh top-flight crown in the past nine years is within reach.

While Arsenal players slumped over at the end, City's convened in a huddle as supporters in the stands wildly celebrated claiming a massive three points.

The travelling contingent made a quick exit from Etihad Stadium, while the City faithful jumped up and down to the tune of Milky's Just The Way You Are.

That song is becoming the soundtrack of City's season, with the words reworked into catchy chants for new signings Rayan Cherki and Antoine Semenyo.

"The full-time celebration felt a bit much," former Premier League midfielder Danny Murphy told BBC Sport. "If you are an Arsenal player, you are thinking 'hold on, we're still leading'. It was a heavy celebration, I was surprised with that.

"I get it in the emotional moment and I have been in those games where I have done it and you celebrate too much. It did seem like they were celebrating the title. By winning the game as a group, they probably thought now we have a chance.

"Even a draw was handing it to Arsenal, so I do get it."

Haaland's second-half winner sparked a cacophony of noise after Cherki had given the hosts the lead, with Kai Havertz equalising in between following Gianluigi Donnarumma's error.

Both sides still have their destiny in their own hands in this gripping title race - should City win all their remaining games it might not be enough as Arsenal may pip them on goal difference.

On paper, Arsenal's run-in looks more favourable as their five remaining games are against teams in the bottom half of the table.

City captain Bernardo Silva called the victory "very big" adding: "It puts us in a position if we win our game in hand we are on the same points.

"Two weeks ago this scenario didn't look very likely. I am happy we can be on the same points."

One aspect of the title race was settled on Sunday with the prospect of an end-of-season play-off now over - should the teams be level on points, goal difference and goals scored come 24 May, City will collect the title by worthy of a better head-to-head record.

Sunday's game was the latest into a season City had faced the league leaders since April 2012.

On that occasion they beat rivals Manchester United 1-0 at Etihad Stadium courtesy of Vincent Kompany's winner en route to securing their first Premier League title on goal difference.

Is history about to repeat itself?

Former Manchester United captain Wayne Rooney told BBC Match of the Day Arsenal will win the title by two points, with the Gunners winning all their remaining matches and Man City drawing at Everton.

He said: "This title race is not over yet, I still feel like there are some more twists and turns to come. It is obviously going to be tight but City have got one more game to try to win, so I still have Arsenal down as slight favourites.

"I have been in this situation myself, where you need to win all your games. You look at your games and you think well we should win this one, or that one, but it never pans out that way.

"From now until the end of the season it is just going to be down to which team keeps their composure the best - that is who will win it.

"City's fixtures look a little bit more difficult. The Arsenal fans have a big part to play, they need to get behind their team.

Ex-Tottenham and Liverpool midfielder Danny Murphy told BBC Match of the Day, Man City will win the title on goal difference, with both teams winning their remaining fixtures.

He said: "I think it edges it [the title race] towards City. Momentum, confidence and all of those things. I was really pleased with the game, I expected it to be much more cagey. Lots of quality and great moments, edge of your seat stuff.

"They are such powerful teams that I think they will win all the games. Bournemouth away could be tough for Man City and West Ham is probably the one to watch for Arsenal. But I think it will be goal difference and Man City will edge it."

Ex-England goalkeeper Rob Green: "It's going to take something monumental for Arsenal to turn this around."

Former Man Utd defender Gary Neville told Sky Sports: "City are on the right track and it's a very difficult train to stop if you're Arsenal. Serial winners coming out on top in big matches. City upped it a gear."

Ex-Blackburn Rovers striker Chris Sutton told BBC Radio 5 Live: "I still think that Arsenal will win the Premier League. I think they have the easier fixtures, and Man City will slip up in theirs."