Battle for No. 1: Draisaitl, Pastrnak and the players to consider

Sleepers, value picks and supporting casts are crucial to fantasy hockey success, but what about the upper crust? That carefully chosen fantasy straw to stir your roster all the way to ultimate success? We need to discuss the flat-out superstars, and which of member of that exceptional ultra-shallow pool you should select first overall.

For this compare and contrast exercise in ranking the true elite, we're settling on a select group of six top forwards. While some will make an argument for picking top-tier defender Cale Makar or standout goalie Connor Hellebuyck first overall, most managers will instead justifiably side with a member of the following group. Each player's strengths and weaknesses are assessed within the framework of ESPN's standard H2H points game, in step with the following formula, while exceptions are mentioned otherwise.

Skaters:

• Goals = 2 points

• Assists = 1 point

• Shots and Hits = 0.1 points

• Blocked shots and Special-teams points = 0.5 points

Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche

A jack of all fantasy trades, the Avalanche center is also a master of most. Averaging a whopping 4.70 shots/game since 2022-23, MacKinnon sits second only to McDavid with 1.58 points/contest. Runner-up in power-play points this past season, he also blocked more shots than the average elite forward (one notable exception mentioned below). Those extra 0.5 digits add up pretty quickly. Despite potting only 32 goals this past season, MacKinnon still finished head of the forward pack with the most fantasy points in ESPN's standard league. Draft him first overall and hope he scores closer to 51 like in 2023-24.

Leon Draisaitl, F, Edmonton Oilers

Punching through the 50-goal plateau in three of his past four seasons, while potting 32 in 56 games during the pandemic-shortened 2021 campaign, Edmonton's other superstar forward is a legit top-pick candidate in any league that rewards goals more than assists. If not for missing 11 contests last year, he would have bested MacKinnon in total haul in conventional competition. Despite losing that chunk of the season, Draisaitl still finished top-10 in power-play production and averaged 3.4 shots/game.

Still, it's about the goals with this guy. Rattling off at a 0.63 goals/contest pace since 2020-21, the soon-to-be 30-year-old can be relied upon to consistently put up exceptional scoring numbers while still pitching in piles of assists. Draisaitl is also durable, missing just five tilts in the three years leading up to last season. If not convinced MacKinnon has a 45-plus-goal drive in him this round, strongly consider selecting the Oilers forward straight away.

Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning

A finalist for the Hart Trophy in consecutive years -- the only player to do so -- the predominant playmaking wizard of the East is responsible for collecting more points (1.67/game) than everyone else at even-strength (166) and with the extra-skater (99). While deservedly revered for his magical abilities to drive play and set up others -- 0.74 primary assists/contest through the aforementioned stretch -- Kucherov also finds the back of the net often enough, potting 37 goals this past season and 44 the previous. Despite shooting on net less often than others, the Lightning winger finished just a hair behind MacKinnon in total fantasy points in 2024-25.

Plus, from a schedule viewpoint, ESPN Senior Writer Greg Wyshynski points out why Kucherov is his preferred No. 1 selection in what's going to be a busier grind for the other five skaters:

"He's an offensive machine and a durable one at that, missing only five games over the past three regular seasons, and since Russia isn't participating in the Olympic hockey tournament means he'll get a midseason breather, too. While Kucherov doesn't exactly have to prove his worth to anyone, keep in mind that he's entering the last two years of his contract."

By the way, the 32-year-old veteran undisputedly sits top of the target table in scoring-based fantasy leagues where goals and assists are valued equally. In such competition, he's your No. 1 overall draft pick. End of chat.

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Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers

Widely considered the best skater on the planet, McDavid's biggest weakness -- an utterly ridiculous characterization out of context -- is his proclivity for assisting teammates in finding the back of the net instead of scoring himself. While averaging 0.55 goals/game since 2020-21, the league's top star has skipped to the rhythm of 1.15 helpers/contest, comprising 0.75 primary assists. For comparison, Tampa's otherworldly playmaker is 1.07 and 0.67 respectively, over the same period.

However, back to the balance issue. Since erupting for 64 goals back in 2022-23, the 28-year-old has just 58 to show for his past two seasons (143 games). Kucherov has 81. So there's the oh-so-minor knock on the Edmonton center in ESPN standard points competition. Durability is another emerging concern. After missing six games in 2023-24, McDavid sat out 15 last year. All else being equal, there's ample argument to side with one of the aforementioned trio as a top fantasy option before the game's most gifted performer. Except in fantasy play that values assists equal to goals, where he ascends to the No. 2 option behind Kucherov.

David Pastrnak, F, Boston Bruins

While hardly an afterthought, the Boston winger sometimes feels like the other member of fantasy hockey's elite sextet of forwards. Rather unfairly, considering he's averaged 110 real-life points -- almost half of them goals -- in three consecutive seasons without missing a game. Pastrnak's special superpower is that he likes to shoot in the direction of the opposition's net a whole lot.

According to Evolving Hockey, his 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons finished first (727 iCF) and second (717 iCF) respectively in Individual Corsi For amongst all NHL skaters. Combine that shot-happy attitude with his resilience, and small wonder Pastrnak has scored more total goals than anyone these past three seasons.

So why not grab the sturdy forward first overall in fantasy leagues that prize goals above all else? Because Boston's power play stinks, that's why. Ranking 29th overall, the Bruins stumbled along at a 15.2% success rate in 2024-25. Which goes a long way to explain why their top forward amassed only 23 points with the extra skater. If the club manages to get more out of their current top unit, this fantasy gem should see better special teams numbers once more.

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Auston Matthews, F, Toronto Maple Leafs

No regular competitor can boast scoring at a greater clip the past six seasons. Nearly pacing MacKinnon in shots/contest, Matthews also puts up impressive numbers with the extra skater, contributes a healthy haul of helpers, and even kicks in the odd short-handed point. What sets him apart from the rest of this elite company is a propensity to block shots. As far as regular forwards are concerned, only Alex Tuch (1.38/game) blocked more per outing than Matthews (1.33/game) in 2024-25. Just like with MacKinnon, those half points add up rapidly. Unsurprisingly the Maple Leafs' captain finished top of the fantasy table alongside Draisaitl in averaging 3.0 points/contest in standard ESPN competition. At face-value, he presents as top no-brain selection in conventional drafts.

Unfortunately, there are other less attractive factors to consider, such as the big center's health. Missing 15 games this past season, he often didn't look his best self even when active. If trying to manage a chronic worry, Matthews will inevitably miss time. While the departure of former linemate Mitch Marner is also a concern, Matthews is arguably gifted enough to eventually figure it out alongside whoever subs in for the departed winger.

It comes down to games played. Does he eke out 75? 70? Fewer? How will the extra effort of competing in the Olympics affect his fitness? Whoever substitutes into your lineup when the 28-year-old is convalescing isn't going to earn you the same fantasy cake. But maybe Matthews grinds out another 80 or so, like two seasons ago, when he scored 69 goals. If that's on display in your fantasy crystal ball, by all means draft him first overall.

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