Don't be surprised if ... Collin Gillespie, Austin Reaves continue hot scoring runs

Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

Don't be surprised if ... Phoenix Suns PG Collin Gillespie becomes a top-100 fantasy option

OK, so perhaps "top 100" doesn't seem like much, but you weren't thinking about Gillespie three or four weeks ago. Perhaps you didn't know he was in the league. The Villanova product who was part of a national championship team in 2018 went undrafted in 2022, and he made little impact for the 2023-24 Denver Nuggets. He started nine games late last season for the Suns, showing promise as a 3-point shooter, distributor and, perhaps most surprisingly, in racking up steals for a team playing its way out of a playoff spot.

Gillespie scored a career-best 28 points in Monday's win over the Los Angeles Lakers, draining eight 3-pointers, dishing five assists and adding two steals. He has scored double digits in each of the past 10 games, averaging 30.6 MPG, 18.0 PPG, 4.6 APG and 1.5 SPG. Those are certainly relevant numbers for our purposes. Perhaps the Suns played Gillespie only because injuries dictated it, but now they see this is a legitimate player who shoots well from everywhere (50% on 3-pointers in 10 games) and plays capable defense.

Fantasy managers aren't reacting, as Gillespie is not on the most-added list, and remains available in more than 60% of standard leagues. I admit Gillespie's emergence is quite surprising, and he likely fits better as a sharpshooting reserve than running point next to star Devin Booker for 35 minutes, but add him first, then see what this looks like in a few weeks. It certainly seems legitimate.

As for other Suns thoughts, I feel a bit vindicated about my trust in C Mark Williams, who couldn't stay healthy over his first three seasons with the Charlotte Hornets, but has missed only four of the first 22 games in Phoenix. Williams isn't quite delivering the scoring, rebounding and blocking figures I expected with health, but he is clearly outshining his tepid ADP, as is controversial SF/SG Dillon Brooks, who is somehow averaging 22.9 PPG. He's no Kevin Durant, but Brooks is seizing usage opportunity, and it all looks legit. I don't think the Suns are a top-6 Western Conference team, but they will qualify for the play-in round.

Don't be surprised if ... the Atlanta Hawks trade PG Trae Young

Perhaps it is just coincidence, but the Hawks have become a completely different team -- a better one, undoubtedly -- since Young left the lineup in the fifth game of the season with a sprained right MCL. Young led the Hawks of past seasons in scoring, usage and highlights (though rarely, and quite notably, in the analytically inclined Win Shares), and nobody has accumulated more assists since he entered the league, but there are several negatives in his game, too. Young is a career 42% field goal shooter, has led the league in turnovers three times, and let's just say defense is far from a priority.

Without Young, the Hawks have been one of the league's top defensive teams over the past month, and PF Jalen Johnson has continued to blossom into one of the league's great talents. Johnson averages 50.5 fantasy points per game, eighth in the league. He and the league's top steals option, SG/PG Dyson Daniels, combine for 13.3 APG, and they defend. Journeyman SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker, still available in more than 35% of ESPN leagues, averages 20.4 PPG and 34.7 fantasy points, and he defends. What's striking, from a fantasy aspect, is how, after Johnson, four other Hawks average more fantasy points per game than Young was, small sample size acknowledged.

Young averaged 45.3 fantasy points last season, so we should judge him on that basis, not at his current 31.4 mark per game, but with the Hawks performing better without him (hey, the numbers don't lie), perhaps a trade is sensible. This is not a good time to trade for Young in fantasy. For one, I worry the Hawks are in absolutely no hurry to get him back into the lineup, as they recently tacked on another two weeks to his recovery before re-evaluation. Perhaps we don't see Young on the court again until January.

The Hawks haven't won as many as 44 games in a season since ... 2016, so whatever they've done in Young's era, while fun, hasn't really worked. The current crew, balanced and willing to defend, looks like it may sail past 44 wins. We can't know where Young would end up, but in-season trades offer no guarantees of fluid statistical production, so we shouldn't assume he simply averages 25 PPG and 10 APG just because he has in the past. If Young remains a Hawk, perhaps his role in the offense and minutes are diminished, too. Something to ponder, anyway.

Don't be surprised if ... Los Angeles Lakers SG/PG/SF Austin Reaves remains a top-25 fantasy option all season

Perhaps this section is more about the impact SF/PF LeBron James is going to have on the Lakers than what Reaves is doing. Hey, you knew this was coming. First, let me say I do not think James is necessarily done as a top 25 fantasy option on a per-game basis, though recent results show otherwise. James has remarkably scored double-digit traditional points in every game for 18 years, but he has barely made it there in a few recent games. He looks hurt. He was hurt, missing the start of the season with sciatica and recently, a game recovering from a foot ailment.

My concern here is twofold. First, the Lakers look like a playoff team with or without James, so they may sit him -- for his own good, for management purposes -- so much in the final months of the regular season that it works against his fantasy value. Don't get mad, but this may look like the Philadelphia 76ers and C Joel Embiid. Nobody likes that comparison, but James isn't likely to play through known ailments, and certainly not in back-to-back situations. James should average more like 20 PPG, 7 RPG and 8 APG when he plays, unlike the current numbers. He will shoot better. C'mon, he's not a 55% free throw shooter. He's just not healthy.

In this vein and considering cost, of course, it may make more sense to invest in Reaves, who has gaudy numbers that now look more realistic to continue, than to pay a similar price in fantasy for James, who turns 41 this month. Reaves missed nary a game two seasons ago, and only nine games last season. That makes him durable, and this season, more than any other in NBA history, the stars are not durable.

Oddly, Reaves' usage is roughly the same with James in the lineup. The minutes and shots remain there, and Reaves is performing splendidly. I don't think he averages his current 48.1 fantasy points all season, but he averaged 38 points last season. Let's say 43 points for the rest of the season. That is still great. That's what Stephen Curry, Jalen Johnson and Jalen Brunson averaged last season. Trade for James as if he is a top-50 fantasy option the rest of the season, for it is never a good idea to bet against him, but covet Reaves as if, thanks to him playing in more games, he remains a potential top-25 option.