Early MLB offseason rumors and buzz: Which stars will get traded? Which teams will rule the winter?

The MLB hot stove season is here!

As players become free to sign with any team they choose (free agency officially begins Thursday at 5 p.m. ET), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the 2025 World Series.

What is the early word on top agents Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber? Will the Detroit Tigers consider moving Tarik Skubal? How will the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays approach the offseason after meeting in the World Series? Which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry? And who could be traded this winter?

Here is what we're hearing as the hot stove ignites.

What is the early word on top free agent hitters Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber?

Jeff Passan: Tucker falls in that interesting bucket where he will rightly demand a contract in excess of $300 million, but the number of teams willing to pay that will limit his options. The Dodgers and Giants make sense, as do the Phillies. Schwarber, on the other hand, will have a bountiful market.

Because he'll be 33 on Opening Day, Schwarber is looking at a maximum five-year deal. Even at a high average annual value, the lack of years keeps mid-market teams in the mix. Ultimately, though, the bidding is likely to come down to bigger-market teams, and he could wind up with a bigger per-year number than Tucker on account of that.

Jesse Rogers: The Cubs are likely going to let Tucker walk while the Phillies haven't closed the door on a reunion with Schwarber. Chicago has more budget constrictions than Philadelphia, meaning the Cubs probably don't want to tie up $35-$40 million in one player.

Somebody will be willing though, especially if Tucker can slide into a ready-made lineup -- like the Dodgers'. There was some fun chatter about him joining his hometown Rays under new ownership, but a mega deal from Tampa isn't likely. Industry insiders begin analysis of Tucker with the phrase, 'when he's healthy.' He's as good as it gets at the plate when he is, but a couple of injuries over the past two seasons have thrown a wrench into his overall production.

Schwarber is one of those rare players -- think Marcus Semien -- who will make more money in his mid-30s than he did previously. He should sign for much more than $79 million, what he just made in his previous deal with Philadelphia. The Phillies need him more than he needs them, according to insiders. How do you replace 187 home runs over the past four years? You don't. He could also balance out the Yankees lineup if Cody Bellinger walks. Can you imagine his home run totals with the short porch at Yankee Stadium?

Both players have the same agent -- Casey Close of Excel -- but they bring different skill sets to the table, meaning the crossover between interested teams may not materialize.

What do those in the industry think the Detroit Tigers will do with Tarik Skubal this winter?

Buster Olney: Other teams believe the Tigers will seriously consider moving him if they can glean what they want in a trade -- and there is every reason to expect a significant bidding war for Skubal, who will be eligible for free agency after next season.

The Mariners are expected to be among the teams that go after Skubal, to bring him back to the city where he attended college. The Mets, of course, have an acute need for an ace to lead their rotation -- a need borne out through their late-season collapse -- and they have the sort of major-league ready young talent that the Tigers will want, like Jonah Tong. The Red Sox are well-positioned to make a run at Skubal, if they want.

The only sure thing in this situation, it seems, is that Skubal will not sign a long-term deal with Detroit before he reaches free agency, and that will frame the Tigers' decision-making.

Rogers: There are mixed feelings on Skubal. Even if he's headed for free agency in a year, some believe the Tigers can still squeeze another playoff season out of him and then reassess under perhaps a new economic climate in baseball. Others believe Tigers President Scott Harris is too smart to let him walk for nothing more than draft pick compensation (under the current system), with the hope that whomever he might get in return helps the Tigers in 2026 and not just in the long term.

Some insiders see his situation as a test for owner Chris Ilitch. Will he open his wallet like his dad, Mike, used to or will he go the more conservative approach?

What should we expect from the Dodgers and Blue Jays this winter after reaching the World Series?

Jorge Castillo: The Blue Jays toppled expectations all season as underdogs and nearly pulled off the upset in the World Series, but this isn't some small-market outfit. Backed by Rogers Communications and an entire country, the Blue Jays spend money (see: Vladimir Guerrero's $500 million contract) and have targeted the sport's biggest free agents in recent years (see: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto).

Starting pitching and the bullpen figure to reside near the top of their list of priorities this winter, but the first matter to address is Bo Bichette's future. Bichette is a homegrown star coming off a timely bounceback regular season before battling through a knee sprain to go 8-for-23 with a .923 OPS in the World Series. His defensive metrics plunged at shortstop this season, perhaps enough for teams to consider him for second base or third base.

Toronto already has about $850 million in future commitments. Adding a nine-figure deal for Bichette would spike their projected 2026 payroll close to $200 million with holes to fill in their pitching staff. But the Blue Jays, after again dabbling in luxury tax territory in 2025, have the money.

Alden Gonzalez: The Dodgers have one massive need heading into the offseason -- they need a closer. More broadly, they need trusted arms late in games, particularly right-handed ones. Brusdar Graterol (coming off shoulder surgery), Blake Treinen (37 and coming off a rough year), Edgardo Henriquez and Will Klein (hard throwers with command issues) are the incumbents there, and they all have questions. So look for the Dodgers to be really aggressive in that space, either through free agency or via trade, or both.

But what will absorb the most attention in the early part of this offseason will be the Dodgers' ties to Tarik Skubal, the Tigers' ace and Kyle Tucker, the star free agent outfielder. They'll be engaged on both of those players, simply because they can, but it will probably be on the periphery.

After a disappointing end to the season for both New York teams, how active do those in the industry expect the Yankees and Mets to be this winter?

Castillo: The consensus seems to be that the Mets will be more active after their disappointing season. The Mets need a frontline starting pitcher. Tarik Skubal rumors erupted as soon as the Tigers were eliminated from the postseason, but acquiring the Cy Young Award winner will require David Stearns to venture beyond his comfort zone. Then there's the case of first baseman Pete Alonso, a free agent for the second straight offseason. Alonso wants a lucrative long-term deal coming off a rebound campaign. The Mets probably aren't going to give him one, which would leave first base to fill.

The Yankees have moves to make, too. Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver are all free agents. Re-signing Bellinger, who fit in so seamlessly in his one season in the Bronx, is a priority, but he's going to have a few big-pocketed suitors. The Yankees could also use some rotation depth with Carlos Rodón, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt all out for at least the beginning of next season.

But between the two teams, the Mets, with owner Steve Cohen still hunting for a championship after five seasons in control, are more likely to execute big splashes this winter.

Olney: There is insight to be gleaned from the trade deadline activity of the New York teams, when they both were aggressive in trying to better position themselves for championship runs -- the Yankees loading up on relievers and adding third baseman Ryan McMahon, and the Mets also working to bolster their bullpen.

The working goal for both organizations is plainly apparent: Anything short of a shot at a World Series title will be regarded as failure. So, yes, the Yankees will try to reconstruct a better, deeper bullpen; replace Cody Bellinger, if he re-signs elsewhere, with an outfielder or two who can help the lineup around Aaron Judge and Ben Rice; and build more options at shortstop beyond Anthony Volpe, who is expected to miss the start of the 2026 season.

For the Mets, that could be targeting Tarik Skubal, or a free agent signing, and resolving the future of Pete Alonso once and for all.

Who is another team you are hearing could dominate the headlines this winter?

Gonzalez: A lot of eyes this offseason will be on the Mariners, coming off their deepest postseason run in franchise history. Seattle came painstakingly close to reaching its first World Series but remains the only franchise that hasn't.

Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, the two midseason acquisitions brought in to bolster the lineup, are now free agents, which means the Mariners once again have a massive need for offense to support their dynamic pitching staff.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told local reporters recently that payroll is expected to be roughly where it stood at season's end, at about $165 million. When accounting for the contracts that have since expired, that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million to spend -- all of which can go to bats. The Mariners are widely expected to be aggressive in free agency, but they also have the prospect capital to pull off massive trades. And if there's anybody who can be counted on to be aggressive when the moment demands it, it's Dipoto.

Rogers: The Phillies. As they continue to chase a ring, Dave Dombrowski is always willing to do more than just tinker with his roster. Obviously, Schwarber's situation will help determine their path this offseason, but fortifying the bullpen as well as the outfield should be high on their to-do list. And he won't stop there. With Zack Wheeler on the mend and Ranger Suarez a free agent, the Phillies could need more in their rotation.

Dombrowski won't overreact to another postseason loss -- his team did win the NL East -- but he also won't leave things to chance. He'll try to find as much redundancy to his roster as he can, like the Dodgers have been able to do. That takes money.

Who are the biggest names you are hearing could be traded this winter?

Buster Olney: Because of the looming labor situation, some younger stars who are under team control in 2027 before reaching free agency could be shoved into the trade market by circumstances this winter.

The best example: Joe Ryan, who is eligible for free agency after the '27 season. Typically, the Twins could wait until next summer's trade deadline to consider taking offers for Ryan. However, with many executives believing that at least some of the '27 season is in jeopardy because of the labor strife, placing an appropriate trade valuation on Ryan will be much, much more complicated next July; teams might not be willing to part with significant return if they believe the '27 season will be truncated or lost. So if teams want to get proper return on players like Ryan, they could be better served to take offers this winter, rather than waiting until next summer.

Other players who could fit this timeline: MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, the Guardians' Steven Kwan, the Cardinals' Lars Nootbaar, the Orioles' Adley Rutschman. If those players aren't going to be locked down with multi-year deals, the best time to get value in a deal for them could be this winter.

Jeff Passan: Everyone wants Tarik Skubal, the soon-to-be two-time American League Cy Young winner, but as of now, the industry expects Detroit to hold onto him, even with his free agency approaching after the 2026 season.

Another arm with questions as to whether he'll go: Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta, who at $8 million is cheap and will hit free agency next winter. Most of the bigger names that will draw interest are pitchers: Minnesota right-handers Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore, St. Louis right-hander Sonny Gray.

Boston could be active in moving one of its outfielders, either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. One player widely expected to be moved: St. Louis third baseman Nolan Arenado, who is willing to waive his no-trade clause.