How Week 14 shook up the NFL playoff picture: What now for the Colts, Chiefs, Ravens and Bears?

In an NFL season where so many teams are tightly packed at the top of their respective conferences and divisions, every week of football in December is going to drive massive changes in the league's playoff picture. Thursday's win by the Lions over the Cowboys kept Dan Campbell's team in the race with its divisional rivals for a wild-card spot, while Dallas saw its own push into the postseason derailed. The Cowboys' playoff odds were more than cut in half, per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI)

There were more significant swings on Sunday, especially in games where teams with realistic playoff aspirations were pitted against one another. With three potential playoff teams on bye and two more still to meet when the Chargers and Eagles play on "Monday Night Football," there were four matchups between true playoff contenders on Sunday. (Sorry, Bengals.) They were all interesting in their own ways.

Subscribe: 'The Bill Barnwell Show'

Today, I'll break down the big stories from those four games and what the outcome means for both teams involved. That starts in Jacksonville, where a Colts team saw its chances of making an impact in 2025 and potentially 2026 disappear in a matter of moments. Not only did Indy lose the division matchup, but it also lost quarterback Daniel Jones to an Achilles injury. A team that had visions of running the AFC playoffs through Indianapolis as the 1-seed might not make it to this season's postseason at all.

Note: All playoff odds throughout are via FPI.

Jump to:
Jaguars over Colts | Steelers over Ravens
Texans over Chiefs | Packers over Bears

Jaguars 36, Colts 19

Jaguars' playoff odds change: 84.0% to 96.7% (up 12.7%)
Colts' playoff odds change: 72.6% to 51.3% (down 21.3%)

The Colts were already in free fall, having dropped out of the top spot in the AFC after losing three of their past four games. Their offense, one of the best in recent history over the first half of the season, had fallen back to earth. Cornerback Sauce Gardner -- whom Indy traded two first-round picks to acquire at the trade deadline -- was sidelined by a calf injury. The organization surely felt lucky that its new star defender hadn't suffered an Achilles injury as feared when he went down in last week's loss to the Texans.

Unfortunately, the Colts weren't as lucky this week. Already playing with a fractured fibula in his left leg, Daniel Jones went down Sunday with a torn Achilles on his right side. Jones has hit injured reserve in the past after tearing his ACL and battling neck issues with the Giants, and now his 2025 season is over after 13 games. He had seemingly established himself as the quarterback the Colts have been desperately trying to find since the unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck just before the start of the 2019 season. Now, what felt like a relatively settled situation turns into yet another offseason of QB uncertainty for GM Chris Ballard and the Colts' front office.

The Colts were surely going to bring Jones back in 2026 after the end of his one-year deal, either by using the franchise tag or signing him to a new contract. Those negotiations suddenly seem more difficult for all parties involved. Would the Colts really commit what projects to be a $46.1 million franchise tag to Jones if they aren't sure whether their quarterback will even be ready to start the 2026 season on the active roster? Could they really commit on a long-term deal to a passer who has been able to complete only one full, healthy season as a starter since joining the league in 2019 without knowing how he looks after the injury?

Jones already made life-altering money during his time with the Giants and would have had a meaningful market if the Colts had decided to let him leave this offseason. The 28-year-old was looking at a minimum of $46 million more in guaranteed money from the franchise tag, if not more on a long-term deal. Now, that's up in the air. The Colts could get creative and offer Jones something less to try to find common ground on a deal, but that could allow Jones to hit the open market. At that point he might prefer a deal with a team like the Vikings, who presumably regret letting Jones walk out the door this offseason.

And of course, the Jones injury leaves the Colts in an impossible position. Their backup, 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson Sr., is on injured reserve after suffering a fractured orbital bone in a freak warmup accident. Their new quarterback is undrafted Notre Dame product Riley Leonard, who went 18-of-29 for 145 yards and an interception Sunday. Leonard had a short rushing touchdown, but he was lucky to get away with a couple of other would-be interceptions and took a sack in the end zone for a safety.

Jones had been struggling a bit in recent weeks, surely owing in part to the fibula injury, and Leonard will play a little better when he gets a full week of practice and preparation as the starter. But even the Jones we saw over the past month would have been a significant upgrade on what the Colts will have at quarterback with Leonard moving forward. Richardson still hasn't been cleared for football activities, and he was one of the least effective passers (era-adjusted) in league history over his first two seasons with the Colts.

play

0:17

Jonathan Taylor muscles his way in for a TD

Jonathan Taylor rushes for a 1-yard touchdown to even the score for Indianapolis.

At this point of the season, with the trade deadline past, there aren't going to be many teams willing to just float a quarterback to the Colts out of the kindness of their hearts. The Colts have Brett Rypien on their practice squad and will likely promote the 29-year-old to be the backup, but there aren't many potential starters freely available around the NFL. The best options are veteran journeymen Trevor Siemian (on the Titans' practice squad) and Mike White (Panthers), neither of whom has crossed paths with coach Shane Steichen in the past. They wouldn't be able to immediately step in and run the offense with any sort of mastery, although they could be upgrades on Leonard.

The obvious veteran lurking at the bottom of a roster who would make sense is Russell Wilson, who was inactive as the third-string quarterback for the Giants last week. Wilson is owed $444,444 in base salary over the rest of the season, so the Giants wouldn't be saving a ton of money by waiving the veteran, but this would be doing a player who is on his way out a favor. Wilson wasn't great in New York and would also need to learn what the Colts want to do on offense. Still, it would be worth a flier for Indy if the Giants did release the 37-year-old.

Of course, the solution for the Colts will probably be to phase out the quarterback as much as possible and rely heavily on Jonathan Taylor and their defense to win them games. We saw the limitations of that strategy Sunday. While the Colts were already trailing 14-7 at the end of the first quarter when Jones suffered his injury, they were still close enough to the Jags to continue running the football and keep things competitive. It just didn't work.

Taylor finished with 74 rushing yards on 21 carries, averaging 3.5 yards per carry. On the first drive after Jones' injury, the star back lost a fumble, giving the Jags a short field. Jacksonville scored on the next play to go up 21-7, and while the Colts responded with a 14-play drive, it ended with a field goal. Taylor was then stuffed on fourth-and-1 after a Bhayshul Tuten fumble, and the Jaguars scored again to go up 18 points at halftime, with Indy never really threatening to make the game competitive after the break.

The Jags obviously benefited from facing a third-string quarterback making his pro debut, but they dominated this game on both sides of the ball. There were still the sadly familiar signs of sloppy play on offense, but the unit was playing well enough to allow for a meaningful margin of error. In some games, a false start at the 2-yard line and a drop by Tim Patrick in the end zone on consecutive plays would be enough to turn a touchdown into a field goal and sink the Jaguars in a close game. But here, Trevor Lawrence just threw a touchdown to Patrick on the next snap.

play

0:25

Trevor Lawrence evades pressure, throws TD pass to Tim Patrick

Trevor Lawrence finds Tim Patrick for a touchdown to extend the Jaguars' lead vs. the Colts.

Lawrence played his best game of the season by a considerable margin, going 17-of-30 for 244 yards, throwing two touchdown passes and running for three first downs. His 82.8 Total QBR was his best mark in more than a year. With the Colts leaning heavily into man coverage even without Gardner in the lineup, Lawrence made them pay with shots downfield, going 8-of-15 for 168 yards and a touchdown against man coverage. He hit deep shots past each of Indy's starting corners, though the highlight had to be Lawrence's 26-yard completion to Patrick. Lawrence outran a slot blitz to his left and smoothly found his receiver for an explosive play.

The Jags had a margin of error earlier in the year because of their defense and their newfound propensity for creating turnovers. Jacksonville racked up 14 takeaways through its 4-1 stretch to start the season. Over the 3-3 stretch that followed, it mustered only four, and the defense dropped from sixth in EPA per play to 19th. Injuries in the secondary didn't help matters, while midseason trade acquisition Greg Newsome II struggled to grow comfortable in his new digs.

Over the past two games, though, the Jaguars have gotten back on the turnover train, with two in the win over the Titans and three more against the Colts. Leonard was responsible for only one of those giveaways, as the Jags picked off Jones early in the game before his injury. With the Jets, Broncos, Colts and Titans on the schedule between now and the end of the season, the Jags might feel like they can continue to create takeaways in bunches on the defensive side of the ball.

Sitting atop the AFC South at 9-4, the Jaguars are in a favorable position as they try to claim just their third playoff berth since 2008. They're a game ahead of the Texans, and the two teams split the head-to-head. The Jaguars currently have a slight lead with their record on common games, but the Texans will have a chance to make that up between now and the end of the season. The Jaguars are also 4-1 in division matchups, while the Texans are 3-1, but that could also even out. This could come down to a fifth or sixth tiebreaker, but the Jags still have that one-game lead. Both teams will be favored in three of their final four games and be underdogs on the road in their toughest remaining contests (Jags against Broncos, Texans against Chargers).

For the Colts, meanwhile, they're now underdogs to even make it to the postseason at all. Leonard's first career start will come next weekend in Seattle, where the Seahawks just devoured fellow undrafted third-stringer Max Brosmer in what might end up being his only pro start. They host the 49ers the following week, then finish up with games against the Jaguars and Texans. Having started 8-2, it's entirely possible that the Colts fail to even finish with a winning record, let alone a postseason berth.

And then, of course, the decision to trade so much for Gardner at midseason would be even more painful. The deal strongly pushed the Colts toward sticking with Jones, given that Indy shipped off its next two first-round picks to acquire the corner. The Colts couldn't possibly have foreseen both Gardner and Jones going down with injuries in consecutive games, but relying on a QB with Jones' injury history was always a risky proposition. Now the Colts are facing another season around .500 and an uncertain path forward under center.

Steelers 27, Ravens 22

Steelers' playoff odds change: 32.5% to 68.6% (up 36.1%)
Ravens' playoff odds change: 60.9% to 28.9% (down 32.0%)

In some ways, this game defied our expectations, especially about the quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers seemed to respond to a week of biting criticism with an immediate riposte, going deep to DK Metcalf on his first snap of the game for a 52-yard completion. He hit all three of his deep shots Sunday for 121 yards.

Lamar Jackson ran seven times for 43 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens as a whole ran for 214 yards on 40 carries, highlighted by a 55-yard scamper by Keaton Mitchell, who would later leave the game with a knee injury. The Ravens had a 43% success rate on their carries, and they held the Steelers to 34 rush yards on 17 attempts.

By the end of the game, though, this mostly came down to what we could have anticipated. The Steelers ran out of steam on offense in the fourth quarter, going three-and-out on each of their final three possessions. The Ravens continued to move the ball, racking up 46 yards or more on each of their fourth-quarter possessions, but an offense that was so good at scoring touchdowns in the red zone last season couldn't punch the ball in this time around. The Ravens made three trips to the red zone on those drives and managed two field goals, failing to score at all on the third try when Isaiah Likely couldn't haul in what should have been a pitch-and-catch touchdown from Jackson against soft coverage.

play

0:39

Isaiah Likely's go-ahead TD gets overturned on review

Isaiah Likely appears to score a go-ahead touchdown, but it's overturned because the referees say he lost control of the ball.

The Likely non-catch was controversial and will linger in the heads of Ravens fans for a long time if they don't make it to the postseason, but it was one moment in a sequence of unfortunate red zone events for the Ravens. They went 2-for-6 converting red zone trips into touchdowns Sunday and left opportunities to score on the field.

On their first attempt in the fourth quarter, Jackson & Co. faced a third-and-4 from Pittsburgh's 10-yard line. The Steelers blitzed, and halfback Rasheen Ali -- nominally the team's fourth option at the position -- whiffed on his pass protection attempt, forcing Jackson to scramble to escape pressure from Patrick Queen. When he reset, Jackson saw an open Rashod Bateman running a shallow route for what should have been an easy first down, but the pass bounced off Bateman's hands for an incompletion, forcing the Ravens to kick a field goal.

A fourth-and-1 conversion by Henry got the Ravens into the red zone on the next possession, but he came off the field for the ensuing three-snap sequence. Ali ran for 2 yards on first down. The Steelers brought the house on second down, and while Jackson eluded an unblocked Queen again for a moment, the pressure forced him to one-hop a checkdown under duress. On third down, nobody got open, and while Jackson avoided a sack, he threw another pass into the ground, setting up another Tyler Bass field goal.

Even after Likely's drop, the Ravens were in favorable position to score their much-needed touchdown. A pass to Henry set up a third-and-2 from Pittsburgh's 5-yard line, leaving the Ravens with two shots to pick up 2 yards against their archrivals. They just didn't execute. Henry lost 3 yards on third down when the Steelers crashed down and attacked the mesh point on a slow-developing gap run, with a completely unblocked Alex Highsmith blowing up the run in the backfield. The Ravens were also flagged for illegal formation on the play, which was just a complete mess.

On fourth-and-5, Jackson tried to work a juke route to Zay Flowers with a corner route over the top from Likely, but he came off of it almost immediately and never really seemed to land on something he liked. DeAndre Hopkins was open briefly in the back of the end zone, but Jackson was already off the veteran wideout, too. He seemed to get caught between scrambling and waiting in the pocket before attempting a throw to a covered Mark Andrews, who wasn't able to bring in the ball.

All this from a team that converted 74.2% of its red zone possessions into touchdowns last season, the best rate of any team in the NFL and the fourth-best rate by any team in any season over the prior decade. The Ravens are picking those up 44.9% of the time in 2025, which is 30th in the league, and that's all the way down to 36.4% in the games they've lost. There have been other issues -- the defense was a mess early in the season, and the run game has struggled to stay on schedule -- but one of Baltimore's biggest strengths last year has become one of the weaknesses that might cost it a trip to the postseason.

play

0:24

Steelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over Ravens

Steelers sack Lamar on final play to secure AFC North-leading win over Ravens

This was obviously an enormous victory for the Steelers, who now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens and will host the rematch between the two in Week 18. The Bengals blowing their lead in Buffalo and losing helped; their playoffs odds dropped to 3.4%.

And at the very least, we saw some signs of life from a Steelers passing attack that had looked physically and mentally exhausted in recent weeks. Rodgers had his best game by Total QBR since Week 7 against the Bengals, going 23-of-34 for 284 yards with a touchdown pass and even scrambling for a score without turning the ball over once. It would be tough to count on that every week moving forward, but even knowing Rodgers has that sort of game in him this late in the season feels like a pleasant surprise for the Steelers. Maybe the fans who chanted "Fire Tomlin" will let their coach stick around for next week's home game against the Dolphins.

The Steelers also have a much easier schedule moving forward than the Ravens, who have three of their final four games on the road. The Ravens travel to play the Bengals, Packers and Steelers, while their lone home game is against the 11-2 Patriots. Baltimore is out of the wild-card picture, so its only path to the postseason is through the AFC North title. John Harbaugh's team technically still controls its own destiny and could clinch the division by winning out, but Sunday's loss was a major step backward.

Texans 20, Chiefs 10

Texans' playoff odds change: 54.0% to 81.8% (up 27.8%)
Chiefs' playoff odds change: 40.4% to 14.2% (down 26.2%)

What seemed impossible is quickly becoming a reality in Kansas City. The idea that the Chiefs would outright miss the playoffs with a healthy Patrick Mahomes would have gotten you laughed out of any football conversation over the summer. Now, after a brutal home loss to the Texans on Sunday, the Chiefs' chances of making the playoffs for the 11th consecutive season are on life support. It will take something truly spectacular for them to land even a wild-card spot in January.

I've written about how bad luck and timing have hurt the Chiefs this season, but when it comes to their Week 14 loss, they have nobody to blame but themselves. It wasn't a great matchup given that the Texans were fielding the best edge duo in football against a pair of backup Chiefs tackles, and the matchup got only worse when Wanya Morris was injured on the opening snap and replaced by undrafted free agent Esa Pole for his NFL debut. But the line didn't singlehandedly decide this game the way it might have in the Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Eagles.

Instead, the Chiefs beat themselves. Although this was one of their best defensive performances of the season, especially when Chris Jones and the D-line got pressure on C.J. Stroud, they did make some mistakes. The Chiefs allowed a pair of third-and-16-plus conversions. They gave up a touchdown to Dalton Schultz early on, only to be bailed out by an illegal shift penalty. Mike Edwards missed a tackle on Nico Collins that turned a 10-yard completion into a 53-yard catch. A few plays later, with the Chiefs double-teaming Collins and Schultz in the red zone, nobody covered Woody Marks out of the backfield for a 9-yard score. Losing top cornerback Trent McDuffie in the first quarter hurt. But even allowing for those issues, the Chiefs defense played well enough to win.

The offense was far sloppier, culminating in a horrible callback to the 2023 offense at the end of the game, with Rashee Rice dropping a would-be conversion on fourth down to end one drive and Travis Kelce dropping consecutive passes on the ensuing possession -- the latter of which bouncing off him and into the hands of Azeez Al-Shaair for a back-breaking interception. Noah Gray had two drops earlier in the game, while Kareem Hunt's drop on what should have been an easy third-and-2 completion ended what could have been a touchdown drive with a field goal to tie the game. Tyquan Thornton had a deep shot hit him in the hands in the end zone, but he wasn't able to hang on.

It wasn't just the drops, though. The Chiefs finished the game averaging minus-0.36 EPA per play, the third-worst offensive performance of the Mahomes era behind a five-turnover day against the Broncos in 2023 and last season's Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. Mahomes had one of his least productive games as a pro, going 14-of-33 for 160 yards with three picks and a minus-16.3% completion percentage over expected (CPOE), per NFL Next Gen Stats. He finished 2-of-12 for 40 yards and an interception when pressured and was just 6-of-22 for 105 yards when he held the ball for 2.5 seconds or more.

Mahomes scrambled for a team-high 59 yards, but even his best plays weren't perfect. The star QB hit Hollywood Brown with a catchable ball on a third-quarter post route for 35 yards, but a better throw would have produced a touchdown. Instead, even while throwing from a clean pocket, Mahomes' pass was underthrown and forced Brown to make a shoestring catch. It was a C-plus throw from a quarterback who we know to be capable of much better. That drive ended in a touchdown, but it took a subsequent fourth-and-1 conversion to get there.

play

0:39

Texans force Mahomes into a 3rd INT

Patrick Mahomes is intercepted for the third time while targeting Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs wouldn't be so fortunate later in the game, failing on a pair of critical fourth-down attempts in the fourth quarter on Mahomes incompletions -- including a fourth-and-1 in a tie game inside their own territory. Our analytics model liked the decision to go for that fourth-and-1, and my colleague Seth Walder gave reasonable answers for why it might have been right, even given what happened next. Chris Jones nearly sacked Stroud on third down on the ensuing Houston possession, which would have pushed the Texans to the fringes of field goal range; if he got his man and the Texans punted, nobody ever would have talked about that fourth-and-1 call again.

I don't want to play victim of the outcomes, but while I'm in favor of the Chiefs going for it in just about every situation imaginable, this one felt like a genuine shock and a mistake to me. Coach Andy Reid used a timeout before making his choice, which was damaging under any circumstance. Game flow can lie or trick you, but this felt like a game where the team that made a mistake on offense first was going to lose, and the Chiefs were running a much greater risk of being that team by attempting a fourth-and-1 without much reward in return. From the 41-yard line, with the Texans needing to advance the ball to get in field goal range, I wouldn't have minded. But from their own 31-yard line, with the Texans already in range to take the lead if they stopped the Chiefs on downs?

Reid's playcall might have worked, as JuJu Smith-Schuster came open immediately on a shallow crosser, but Mahomes didn't fire into that initial window. Rice was bumped on his route following Smith-Schuster by Al-Shaair, throwing off the timing of the play and giving Derek Stingley Jr. time to recognize the concept and drive on Rice, breaking up the attempt.

Rice simply wasn't good enough in a critical game, as he battled drops and caught four of the eight targets thrown his way for a total of just 34 yards. Eight targets to Chiefs tight ends produced two catches, 14 receiving yards and four drops. The only player who caught a Mahomes pass between the hashes on Sunday was ... Mahomes, who brought in his own tipped pass for a loss of 10 yards.

One of the things I was hoping to see from the Chiefs during the game was more work from under center on the ground. They came into the game as the league's second-best rushing attack by EPA per play on under-center runs, while the Texans were one of the league's worst defenses against those rushes. It didn't happen. The duo of Isiah Pacheco and Hunt carried the ball 21 times, and 15 of those runs were from the shotgun or pistol. Those gun runs produced an average of 2.5 yards per carry. The six under-center runs were up at 3.8 yards per attempt, which isn't great but still about 50% better than the alternatives.

It could have been a more substantial win for the Texans, who left points on the field with penalties and drops of their own. They struggled to block up Kansas City's blitzes after an early touchdown pass, and on the whole, Stroud was 5-of-13 for 78 yards and a score against the blitz. The third-year quarterback missed too many throws, often high, but he also came up with a handful of big plays on third down to keep possession. On a day where Houston's running game turned 29 carries into just 77 yards, it was on Stroud to move the ball. It wasn't a highlight-reel game most of the way, but he made fewer damaging mistakes than Mahomes and got more help from his receivers.

play

0:25

CJ Stroud flips it to Woody Marks for Texans TD

CJ Stroud throws a short pass to Woody Marks to take a 10-0 lead over the Chiefs.

For the Texans, this is some measure of a vindication in a place where they've been haunted in years past. The Chiefs knocked the Bill O'Brien-era Texans out of the playoffs in Kansas City during the 2019 playoffs, overcoming a 24-0 deficit and scoring 51 of the final 58 points. They beat the Texans at home in the season opener the following season, won in Houston in overtime two years later and then swept the Texans with a pair of home victories a year ago -- including the 23-14 postseason victory which ended Houston's season.

It also keeps the Texans one game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South. Given that the Colts are likely to fall out of the race without Daniel Jones at quarterback, the Texans are in great shape to land a playoff spot, especially given that they have home games against the Cardinals, Raiders and Colts to come. It's possible none of those teams has its starting quarterback available for those games. The Texans have all but officially battled back from starting 0-3 to make it to the postseason.

For the Chiefs, well, time is running out. FPI suggests that Kansas City has a 48.7% shot to make it to the postseason if it wins out, which would require several leaps of faith at this point. The Chiefs now have another loss and would subsequently lose a tiebreaker to another wild-card contender in the AFC; the one team they do have a tiebreaker victory over is the Colts, who are likely to fall out of the playoff pack. Their streak of winning division titles is officially over, and while there's still time for miracles, a Chiefs team which felt preordained to land something transcendent at exactly the right time for nearly a decade looks downright ordinary these days.

Packers 28, Bears 21

Packers' playoff odds change: 89.2% to 93.7% (up 4.5%)
Bears' playoff odds change: 73.5% to 63.1% (down 10.4%)

Bears players sick of hearing about how unsustainable or unlikely their first-place position in the NFC was had a chance to end it this weekend. Beating the Packers at Lambeau Field would have given Ben Johnson's team a stranglehold on the NFC North and made it the inside favorite to claim the top spot in the conference. While players will happily tell you that they don't care about opinions outside the building, this win would have conferred significant credibility to a Bears team that's trying to establish itself atop the division, just as beating the Packers in Week 18 of the 2022 season might have confirmed that Johnson's Lions were for real and about to take a leap forward in 2023.

The Bears were good, but they weren't quite good enough. In part, that stems from the biggest disconnect between this team and reality. The Bears came into this game with the best turnover margin (plus-17) in the NFL by a considerable amount, driven both by sound offense and a whopping 26 takeaways on defense. They entered turning 19.8% of opposing possessions into turnovers, which was both the best rate in the league and the third-best rate by any team in any season over the past decade.

There's nothing wrong with takeaways, of course, but we know they can be subject to significant amounts of variance. And while some great defenses (like the Broncos) create plenty of takeaways and then still stifle teams when they don't snatch the ball away, the Bears have not managed the same feat. When you strip out drives ending in fumble recoveries or interceptions for all 32 teams and just look at what defenses do on drives without takeaways, the Bears came into the game ranked 29th in points allowed per possession. If you can protect the rock against the Bears, you can move the ball and score on them.

This was a bad matchup for that version of the Bears defense, given that the Packers had turned the ball over a league-low seven times heading into this NFC North showdown. And indeed, that's how it played out. Jordan Love threw an ugly interception to end the opening drive, with the Bears failing to turn the short field into points, but that was Green Bay's only turnover of the game. And across their seven other meaningful possessions Sunday, the Packers had four touchdown drives, all traveling 60 or more yards.

The Bears had a legitimate reason to hope to not be that same defense heading into the game: health. They welcomed back cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon last week, while linebackers T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell were back in the fold this week. Johnson is a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback at his best, and with the returning contributors, the Bears should have felt like they had a realistic chance of holding up on the drives that didn't end with turnover celebrations.

It didn't play out that way in reality. Gordon injured his groin in pregame warmups and was a late scratch. Johnson was in and out of the lineup and played only 65% of the defensive snaps. Edwards was on the field for 63% of the snaps in his return, while coordinator Dennis Allen played D'Marco Jackson ahead of Sewell, who suited up to play just one defensive snap all game.

Gordon's injury cost the Bears their top slot cornerback. Guess where Love picked the Bears apart? Love was 7-of-7 for 150 yards and three touchdowns throwing to receivers operating out of the slot on Sunday, nearly doubling his passing output on throws to receivers who were split out or started in the backfield.

play

0:22

Christian Watson hauls in his second TD

Jordan Love passes to Christian Watson and he turns on the jets to the end zone to extend the Packers' lead.

Those plays were typically against mismatched safeties. Against a Cover 0 look, Christian Watson ran away from Kevin Byard III on a post for a touchdown. Love hit two big plays against hybrid corner/safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, including a 41-yard touchdown on a slant to Watson in the fourth quarter. Gardner-Johnson has been great near the line of scrimmage since joining the Bears, and Byard has intercepted six passes this season, but Chicago doesn't want either of those guys running in coverage against wide receivers very often.

Love's 45-yard strike to Bo Melton for another score came with the Bears seemingly running what's known as a "2 invert" coverage, with Jaylon Johnson dropping to play safety on one side of the field in what's essentially a disguised version of Cover 2. Johnson tried to wall off a crossing route at the second level, but there was nobody covering or really paying attention to Melton's deep post route. I don't think we can say for sure whether Johnson (a cornerback playing safety) or Byard (a safety you don't want running vertically with wide receivers) should have been in coverage, but when Jaquan Brisker was unable to catch up to the throw, Love had another huge strike for a score.

It was just a rough game for the Bears defense, which also missed 13% of its tackle attempts. Josh Jacobs hasn't had the best season, but this was the Packers running back's best game of the season. Jacobs' 20 carries produced a solid 86 yards, but he made a number of big plays on third down, most notably a third-and-2 pitch in the third quarter where he appeared dead to rights against Bears edge Montez Sweat only to cut back behind the Chicago defender, break through a tackle attempt by Gervon Dexter Sr. and turn upfield for a 21-yard gain. Jacobs punched in the game-winning touchdown from 2 yards out two minutes later, riding a Nick McCloud tackle into the end zone.

Coming off a dominant rushing performance against the Eagles, the Bears eventually got their run game going, but it took some time. Chicago's first three drives of the game produced a total of just one first down and 5 net yards. The Bears managed just one possession with more than one first down in the first half of the game before racking up 15 first downs across their four drives after the break.

Ben Johnson very clearly wanted to do whatever he could to avoid making Caleb Williams a sitting target for Micah Parsons in the backfield. This was one of the heaviest boot and play-action game plans I've ever seen for an offense. The Bears typically use play-action on just under 33% of their dropbacks, which is one of the highest rates in the league. On Sunday, that jumped to 60.5%, the highest rate for any quarterback in a single game all season and the eighth-highest rate in a single game over the past decade.

play

0:17

Olamide Zaccheaus' short TD gets Bears closer

Caleb Williams throws and Olamide Zaccheaus makes a diving catch for a 1-yard Bears' TD vs. the Packers.

Look at what Williams did and you can understand why Johnson leaned into moving his quarterback around. Williams went 14-of-22 for 144 yards with two touchdown throws and a pick using play-action, but he was just 5-of-13 for 42 yards as a dropback passer. He started slow and was just 1-of-7 for 2 yards in the first quarter, but as the game wore along, he improved. He was 13-of-21 for 154 yards with two scores and a pick in the second half without taking any sacks.

That interception was painful. With the Bears trailing by seven and four of the six preceding drives by both teams resulting in touchdowns, Johnson clearly wanted to make his team's two-minute drill the final possession of the game. With three timeouts and 3:26 to go, the Bears moved the ball into the red zone and were very comfortable running both the football and the clock, presumably with the idea that they would score a touchdown and then go for two with as little time remaining as possible to try to win the game.

It didn't quite work out that way. On a third-and-1 from the Packers' 14-yard line with 35 seconds left, edge Kingsley Enagbare overpowered inexperienced Bears left tackle Ozzy Trapilo and then stopped Kyle Monangai at the line of scrimmage in his tracks for no gain. A merely solid tackle attempt would have likely yielded a first down, given that Monangai was running vertically and Enagbare was coming at him from the side, but this was a great play by Enagbare. The Packers missed just two tackles all game, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

After the two teams traded timeouts, the Bears called yet another bootleg on fourth-and-1, this time with Williams scrambling out to the left. He has had a habit of taking the safe throw in spots where he might have wanted to try to hit a home run in the past, but he got the process flipped this time. The concept the Bears called was designed to go to D'Andre Swift in the flat, and while he wasn't wide open, a well-placed ball would have given the Bears a first down if thrown at the right time.

Instead, Williams threw against his body to take his shot downfield, seeing green grass ahead of tight end Colston Loveland. The problem? Cornerback Keisean Nixon read the concept, and when Williams couldn't get much on his pass attempt, Nixon had plenty of time to catch up to Loveland and intercept the pass, sealing a Packers victory. On first-and-10 and with plenty of field space to work with, it would have been a reasonable decision. Needing a first down to survive, though, Williams probably made the wrong call.

play

0:31

Packers seal win with INT of Caleb Williams

Keisean Nixon picks off Caleb Williams to seal the win for the Packers with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

There were plenty of positive moments for Williams in this game, including a spectacular throw to Cole Kmet on the move and a touchdown pass into an impossible window for Olamide Zaccheaus. Williams drove the Bears into position for the game-altering score they've gotten so many times in the fourth quarter this season. This time, though, the Packers were up to the task.

This was a painful loss for the Bears, who fell all the way from the top spot in the NFC playoff picture to the seventh seed by the end of Sunday's games. The Packers have a half-game lead atop the division and now possess the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bears. While Chicago can get its revenge at home in two weeks, the Packers have already clinched a better division record than their rivals by going 4-0 in the NFC North. The Bears and Lions are both 1-3. There won't be a tied race as long as the Packers have a tie on their record and their two divisional brethren do not, but the Packers would be in position to win any tiebreakers if that scenario does come up.