Jones won't fight, McGregor will and more 2026 MMA predictions

Everyone knows mixed martial arts doesn't take an offseason, but it sure feels as if we're in the middle of one right now.

It has been more than three weeks since the most recent event, UFC Fight Night on Dec. 13. And we're still more than two weeks from the end of inactivity with UFC 324 on Jan. 24 in Las Vegas.

If you're getting a little stir-crazy during this absence of fights, you're not alone. We also are eager for the 2026 schedule to kick off, but as we wait, here are several bold predictions for this calendar year. MMA is arguably the most unpredictable sport, because scheduling is based on wins and losses, so no prognostication is too far out. Here are a few scenarios that would be unexpected but are still quite possible.

Jon Jones will not fight in 2026

I'm zigging where others are zagging here. The widespread expectation going into 2026 is that Jones will absolutely make his return to MMA. That expectation is based on his July announcement that he would end his short retirement in hopes of fighting at the White House this summer, preferably against Alex Pereira. Ask MMA pundits and fans right now if they believe Jones will fight at least once in 2026, and the response probably will be overwhelmingly affirmative.

I also hope Jones fights in 2026, and I will acknowledge that he has made it appear likely. But will he really? Jones is 38 years old. His time in MMA is limited, yet he still chose not to fight in 2025. He has fought twice over the past six years. Why should we assume his comeback is a given? He apparently doesn't need the money, in light of his decision to decline a very lucrative bout against Tom Aspinall.

Dana White has said the odds of Jones headlining the White House card are a "billion-to-1." And though the UFC CEO could still change his mind and welcome back Jones, there's a reason he said not to bet on it. Jones is unreliable and has been throughout his career. In addition to his decision to retire instead of agreeing to fight Aspinall, Jones has been suspended and stripped of his titles multiple times because of legal issues and substance violations. Yet now, it's suddenly sure that -- at his age and following more than a year of inactivity -- he's going to be ready to go in six months? I don't know.

But Conor McGregor will fight -- twice

You want bold? Let's go bold, baby. In the past, I have said that McGregor would never fight again. Now I'm saying he'll fight twice in 2026? What changed? The White House.

Though I don't see the White House card being a "sure thing" to get Jones into the Octagon, I kind of think it is for McGregor. This is the kind of opportunity that finally will get him back to some sense of discipline. It's an event that McGregor's ego will not allow him to pass up. He will view himself as the one and only figure who should headline that card, and he won't be wrong. He remains, far and wide, the biggest star in MMA.

Here's where I step out on a limb. The expectation is for McGregor to face Michael Chandler in June. Chandler is a fantastic lightweight, but stylistically, it's a favorable matchup for McGregor. I'm not saying McGregor is a lock to win, but if he resembles his old self at all, he could look very good against Chandler. And if he does, don't you think the UFC matchmakers would offer McGregor nearly any opportunity to keep their biggest draw active? Pick a date and opponent, Conor. Maybe even for a title.

If McGregor makes it to the White House, I don't think a second fight by the end of the year is out of the question whatsoever. He'll be in shape and soaking in the spotlight that he so craves. The UFC won't give him a chance to disappear. It will offer whatever fight he wants and book it for November in Madison Square Garden. It sounds far-fetched, considering the past 4½ years since he has fought in the UFC, but when a potential future schedule for McGregor is laid out, it's fathomable, isn't it? It's faint, but it's there.

Multiple active UFC champions will retire

This would be a rarity, but we're seeing more examples of champions going out on top in recent years. Jones in 2025. Amanda Nunes in 2023 (though she has since changed her mind). Khabib Nurmagomedov and Henry Cejudo in 2020.

In 2026, we will see it again -- multiple times. As we head into the first events of the year, think about the current champions.

Heavyweight titleholder Aspinall is young but is dealing with a serious medical issue. It's natural to assume he'll recover from being poked in the eye and come back, but that's not a given. Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira is 38. Middleweight champ Khamzat Chimaev has said he doesn't love the sport as much as he used to. Ilia Topuria, the former featherweight and current lightweight champ, is only 28 but has teased retirement multiple times. Top featherweight Alexander Volkanovski is 37 and could retire in the second half of the year, if he cements his legacy the way he intends.

Even some of the other top names floating around the championship tier are close to the end of their careers. Justin Gaethje, who fights Paddy Pimblett for an interim lightweight title on Jan. 24, has said he wants to win the undisputed belt then immediately retire. Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman could get another title opportunity in 2026, and if that happens, how many fights would he have left? Kayla Harrison and Nunes will kick off the year with one of the biggest fights in women's MMA on Jan. 24, but could the year end with both of them retired? It's possible.

The BMF title will also retire

It's time to put the BMF to rest, and the UFC will find a way to do it. It doesn't seem possible this belt is more than six years old, but it has lived a darn good life. Nate Diaz, Jorge Masvidal, Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway have all been in BMF fights. In March, Charles Oliveira will be added to that list, when he challenges Holloway for the belt at UFC 326. All of those fighters are 100 percent irrefutable, undeniable, Grade A, BMF-certified. It's a perfect time to wrap up.

This isn't a knock on the idea of a BMF belt, which is meant to signify the promotion's toughest fighters. It doesn't hurt anything for it to exist. It doesn't water down any of the legitimate belts. It's a marketing tool, and it has proved to be a good one. But it feels as if it has lost some of its impact, and rather than allow that decline to continue, the UFC should announce that Holloway vs. Oliveira will be the final BMF fight. Although the promotion doesn't seem ready to do that immediately, I believe, one way or another, we will see the BMF belt move to extinction in 2026.

Usman Nurmagomedov will re-sign with PFL

Nurmagomedov is the undefeated, 27-year-old cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov and brother of UFC men's bantamweight contender Umar Nurmagomedov. He is the PFL lightweight champion and considered one of the top lightweights in the world. He and his manager, Ali Abdelaziz, have stated he has two fights left on his PFL contract, which means he probably will be discussing his future with the promotion following his next appearance on Feb. 7 against Alfie Davis.

Whenever there is an exciting, world-class fighter competing outside the UFC, the expectation is that he or she will eventually make his or her way over. That might happen with Nurmagomedov eventually, but not on this next contract.

There are a few reasons for that. The PFL needs Nurmagomedov and will prioritize keeping him. It's no coincidence that all three of Nurmagomedov's PFL appearances (two last year and the upcoming one in February) have been scheduled in Dubai. The PFL signed a multiyear deal with the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism in late 2024, and the Nurmagomedov name carries a lot of weight in that region. In addition, Nurmagomedov's talent has made him one of the few standout faces for the PFL brand. It can't lose him.

As much as fans would love to see how Nurmagomedov would fare in the UFC, the reality is that the UFC's lightweight division is already log-jammed. The year will begin with an interim title fight between Gaethje and Pimblett. Topuria's immediate future as the champion is murky, now that he has stepped away from competition to begin the year. Arman Tsarukyan is waiting for his well-deserved shot. There's not a lot of room for Nurmagomedov at the moment.

It won't be a bad thing if Nurmagomedov re-signs with the PFL. At all. MMA is healthiest when there are multiple promotions finding success. That means more shows for fans and more opportunities for fighters, their trainers, support staff and everyone else in the space. When it comes to Nurmagomedov in 2026, the PFL will make it worth his while to stay. And from a business standpoint, the sport will be better for it.