Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer: Which pitcher is this generation's true ace?

Baseball history is full of what-ifs. One of those: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer could have all been teammates with the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers, selecting sixth in the 2006 draft, were poised to take Kershaw, the top high school pitcher available. University of North Carolina left-hander Andrew Miller was regarded as the consensus top player in the draft, but the Kansas City Royals, holders of the top pick, were reluctant to meet Miller's bonus demands, so the Royals instead drafted Luke Hochevar. Four other teams passed on Miller as well, leaving the Tigers to change course and take him.

With the seventh pick, the Los Angeles Dodgers selected Kershaw.

Less than two years later, the 20-year-old made his major league debut, giving up two runs and striking out seven in six innings as he fired 97 mph fastballs and a big curveball, impressing then-Dodgers manager Joe Torre. "He's the real deal," the Hall of Fame skipper said. Kershaw was still a work in progress, working on his command and relying almost exclusively on only those two pitches until he started throwing his slider the following season. He had a 4.26 ERA as a rookie, but it would remain below 3.00 in 13 of his next 15 seasons.

With the 10th pick of that 2006 draft, the Arizona Diamondbacks took Scherzer. Concerned that his violent delivery would eventually lead to arm problems, the Diamondbacks later traded him to the Tigers, where he and Verlander -- whom Detroit selected with the No. 2 pick in the 2004 draft -- teamed up for five seasons, from 2010 to 2014. That team would win four consecutive American League Central titles and reach a World Series. Imagine the potential heights if Kershaw also had been in the rotation.

Kershaw is retired now, of course, going out on top with a World Series victory last fall after spending his entire 18-season career with the Dodgers. He faced only one batter in the World Series, but it was one of the biggest outs of the seven-game series, getting Nathan Lukes to ground out with the bases loaded in the 12th inning of Game 3, which the Dodgers eventually won in 18 innings.

Verlander and Scherzer, meanwhile, intend to play at least one more season, still surviving in their 40s, their fastballs no longer the dominant forces they once were. As Scherzer showed in Game 7 of the World Series, when he left in the fifth inning with his Toronto Blue Jays leading, he's still capable of a big moment and a clutch performance -- just as he, Verlander and Kershaw showed over the past two decades as they dominated much of the pitching conversation.

With the Hall of Fame announcement coming up next week for the class of 2026, it seems like a fun time to ask: Which of these three future Hall of Famers was the ultimate ace, the king of the hill, of this generation? And furthermore ... is there even a correct answer?

Career pitching value

We'll examine a few different categories. First, however, the basics:

Verlander: 266-158 (.627), 3,567 IP, 3.32 ERA, 128 ERA+, 83.3 WAR
Kershaw: 223-96 (.699), 2,855 IP, 2.53 ERA, 154 ERA+, 78.6 WAR
Scherzer: 221-117 (.654), 2,963 IP, 3.22 ERA, 131 ERA+, 74.1 WAR

That WAR figure is the average of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, although both sites produced similar totals for all three pitchers. It's no surprise that Verlander has the advantage here in both WAR and wins. WAR is a cumulative statistic and Verlander has pitched 600 more innings than Scherzer and 700 more than Kershaw, even though Verlander made only one start in 2020 and sat out all of 2021 after Tommy John surgery. He has more 200-inning seasons (12) than Scherzer (6) and Kershaw (5) combined. That durability and workload is a big plus in his favor.

On the other hand, it's hard to ignore Kershaw's advantage in ERA. Among pitchers with at least 2,000 innings since 1920, the start of the live-ball era, only reliever Hoyt Wilhelm has a lower ERA -- and just barely, at 2.52. Among pitchers with 2,000 innings from any era, Kershaw is tied with Pedro Martinez for the best adjusted ERA (ERA+) at 154.

One way to view this is not to look at value above replacement level, but value above average -- a testament to excellence and not just longevity or durability. Kershaw gains the advantage here when looking at wins above average figures:

Kershaw: 55.0
Verlander: 49.4
Scherzer: 49.3

All three totals are hugely impressive. Using our live-ball era timeline since 1920, those totals rank seventh, 11th and 12th, with Kershaw trailing only Roger Clemens, Lefty Grove, Randy Johnson, Tom Seaver, Greg Maddux and Martinez. Other than Martinez, the others all pitched at least 1,000 more innings than Kershaw.

Kershaw's career was remarkable. He never had a losing season. And other than a seven-start season in 2024, when he had a 4.50 ERA, he never had a bad season. Even in 2025, when he was no longer striking out many batters and his fastball averaged just 89 mph, he was still effective, going 11-2 with a 3.36 ERA.

So, advantage Kershaw?

Maybe. But there are a couple of more data points to consider.

Bill James' win shares system, a different method of evaluation than WAR, can still be found at the Fielding Bible website. In this system -- three wins equals one win of value -- Verlander has the sizable lead:

Verlander: 277 win shares
Kershaw: 247 win shares
Scherzer: 231 win shares

OK, so back to Verlander?

Let's consider one more thing. Though all three pitches have terrific winning percentages, Kershaw's .699 percentage is the highest ever for a post-1900 pitcher with at least 125 wins. Of course, Kershaw played on a lot of great teams. Only once in his 18 seasons did the Dodgers finish with a losing record, going 80-82 in 2010. Verlander and Scherzer, however, have also spent most of their careers on winning teams. So let's use an old Bill James technique. If we give each pitcher his actual number of decisions each season but the winning percentage of his teammates, we can see how many wins he added over the rest of the team.

For example, Kershaw went 21-3 in 2014. The Dodgers were 73-65 when he didn't get the decision, so his teammates would have been expected to win 13 games in 24 decisions. That's a plus-11 for Kershaw. Here are the totals:

Kershaw: 180 to 223 (+43 wins)
Verlander: 226 to 266 (+40 wins)
Scherzer: 178 to 221 (+43 wins)

Well, that doesn't help us make a decision. So far, it feels like a coin flip between Kershaw and Verlander, with Scherzer a close third.

Peak pitching value

The Sandy Koufax question: Who was the best at their best?

We have Kershaw, the artist. I once asked DJ LeMahieu, who spent years facing Kershaw when he was with the Colorado Rockies, what made Kershaw so good, wondering if Kershaw hid the ball well with his unique delivery, with that little pause and hitch with his front leg before he delivers the pitch. No, LeMahieu said, he saw the ball just fine. Kershaw just had exceptional fastball command, and his slider and curveball looked like the same pitch coming out of his hand. Indeed, Kershaw didn't give up a home run off his curveball his first six seasons in the majors.

We have Verlander, the machine. As a young starter, he possessed a triple-digit fastball so powerful that he would hold back in the early innings and then ramp up velocity as the game progressed. He twice bounced back from a career crisis, first from offseason core surgery before the 2014 season, which led to two down seasons before winning his second Cy Young Award in 2019. The second was Tommy John surgery in 2020, which wiped out two seasons before he returned to win his third Cy Young in 2022.

We have Scherzer, the ferocious competitor. He went from a good to a great pitcher in 2013, winning his first Cy Young Award after he added a curveball to his wipeout slider and changeup. Still, he often just reared back and fired his explosive fastball past hitters. When he signed with the Washington Nationals in 2015, the contract was widely criticized, but he would win two more Cy Youngs and finish in the top three of the voting three other times.

But what constitutes a pitcher's peak? Jay Jaffe, in his JAWS system to evaluate Hall of Fame candidates, uses a player's best seven seasons. Using Baseball-Reference WAR, we get:

Verlander: 50.3
Kershaw: 47.6
Scherzer: 46.7

If we use their five best seasons and use the win shares method, we get:

Verlander: 114 (27, 23, 23, 21, 20)
Kershaw: 107 (23, 22, 22, 21, 19)
Scherzer: 99 (21, 20, 20, 20, 18)

Three best seasons? Verlander again.

(By the way, we're using just pitching WAR here. Kershaw was actually a good enough hitter for a pitcher that he earned 2.8 additional WAR for his hitting.)

Verlander's 2011 season, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 8.6 WAR, ranks as the top season among the three pitchers, with his 2012 season (17-8, 2.64 ERA, 8.1 WAR) tied with Kershaw's 2013 season (16-9, 1.83 ERA, 8.1 WAR) for No. 2. Scherzer's best season was 2018 (18-7, 2.53 ERA, 7.9 WAR) and comes in fourth best among the trio, although he lost the Cy Young that year to Jacob deGrom.

Verlander has a couple of small advantages here over Kershaw. First is league context, specifically run scoring. Kershaw's peak was 2011 to 2017, pitching in a pitcher's park, when pitchers were still hitting and the run-scoring environment was generally lower than it is now. The National League averaged 4.20 runs per game over those years, dipping to as low as 3.95 in 2014, when Kershaw won his Cy Young/MVP double whammy with 21 wins and a 1.77 ERA. Verlander's best seasons in 2011-12 came when the American League averaged 4.46 and 4.45 runs per game. When he won the Cy Young in 2019 with 21 wins and a 2.58 ERA, the AL averaged 4.88 runs.

The other advantage Verlander holds is that Kershaw didn't finish off some of his potentially best seasons. Even in 2014, for example, when he won the Cy Young/MVP Awards, Kershaw produced 7.7 WAR in only 27 starts. Give him 33 starts and the WAR prorates to 9.4. He might have been on his way to his best season in 2016 -- he would finish with a 1.69 ERA and 5.8 WAR with an incredible 172-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio -- but made only 21 starts after sitting out 10 weeks because of a back injury. Give him 33 starts and his WAR prorates to 9.1.

It's close once again, but the edge in peak value goes to Verlander.

On any given night

In 2015, Scherzer might have pitched the greatest back-to-back games in MLB history. On June 14, he pitched a one-hit shutout with 16 strikeouts and one walk against the Milwaukee Brewers, the only hit a blooper that fell just beyond the reach of second baseman Anthony Rendon. In his next start on June 20, Scherzer pitched a 10-strikeout no-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates, losing his perfect game with two outs in the ninth when he hit Jose Tabata with a slider that backed up (and Tabata infamously sort of leaned into).

Those weren't even his best games of the season. In his final start of 2015, Scherzer pitched a 17-strikeout no-hitter against the New York Mets, losing a perfect game on a sixth-inning error. That registered a game score of 104, the second-highest nine-inning game score in history (behind Kerry Wood's 20-strikeout no-hitter).

The third-highest? Kershaw's 15-strikeout no-hitter against the Rockies in 2014, which registered a 102 score.

And Verlander? He has thrown three no-hitters, with a highest game score of 100.

But who was most dominant on a regular basis?

Game score rewards points for outs recorded and strikeouts and subtracts points for runs, hits and walks. A game score of 80 or higher is a great start -- just 2.1% of all starts in 2025 reached that threshold.

Here's how often each pitcher produced a game score of 80 or higher:

Kershaw: 10.6% (career average: 62)
Scherzer: 8.6% (career average: 59)
Verlander: 7.4% (career average: 58)

Kershaw at his best was something else. From 2011 to 2017, when he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA and won five ERA titles in seven seasons, he had 37 starts with a game score of 80 or higher -- nearly 18% of all his starts. Scherzer and Verlander have had only 41 each over their entire careers.

Kershaw's potential for dominance can also be seen in the percentage of career starts he gave up no runs:

Kershaw: 102 (22.6%)
Scherzer: 78 (16.5%)
Verlander: 84 (15.1%)

Over his career, Kershaw gave up no runs or one run in 47% of his starts. That's how you post the lowest ERA in modern baseball history. It seemed as if Scherzer might win this category -- don't forget his record-tying 20-strikeout game in 2016 -- but any given night, we have to go with Kershaw.

The postseason

OK, now to Kershaw's Achilles' heel regarding his ultimate legacy. The postseason numbers:

Kershaw: 13-13, 4.62 ERA, 196⅔ IP, 171 H, 54 BB, 213 SO, 32 HR
Verlander: 17-12, 3.58 ERA, 226 IP, 179 H, 74 BB, 244 SO, 32 HR
Scherzer: 8-8. 3.78 ERA, 157⅓ IP, 121 H, 62 BB, 182 SO, 23 HR

Kershaw's big-game struggles have been well documented. Most perplexing was an eight-start stretch during the absolute apex of his abilities, from 2013 to 2016, when he went 2-5 with a 5.63 ERA (sometimes pitching on three days' rest). There was some bad ... we'll call it misfortune ... in that stretch, as he had a 2.54 FIP. Though Kershaw was certainly more homer-prone in the postseason, 24 of the 32 home runs he gave up were solo shots. His strikeout (26.5%) and walk rates (6.7%) are nearly identical to his regular-season rates (27.1% and 6.3%, respectively). The big difference: He gave up a .255 average with runners in scoring position in the postseason compared to .200 in the regular season. As Kershaw himself once said, "Maybe I try too hard" in the playoffs.

He did have some good starts along the way, although he lacks that signature postseason moment. He recorded a game score of 70 or higher in nine of his 32 playoff starts (28%), with an average of 54. Compare that to Verlander, who had 10 starts of 70 or higher out of 37 (27%), with an average of 57; and to Scherzer, who had five of 70 or higher out of 28 (18%), with an average of 56. Let's be clear here: None of the three ever had a single dominant postseason run, like Madison Bumgarner in 2014 or Stephen Strasburg in 2019 or Yoshinobu Yamamoto in 2025.

Verlander had a few more big games than the other two, although they all came in earlier rounds before the World Series (of his 10 best postseason starts, none came in the World Series). Scherzer's two most memorable playoff outings were his two World Series Game 7 starts, both games testament to his competitive drive more than his results -- he pitched five innings in 2019 despite a neck injury that had left him unable to start Games 5 or 6, and then 4⅓ innings of one-run ball this past October, with his stuff much diminished at age 41.

In the end, I'm not sure there's a winner in this category. Verlander was the best overall, but he's 1-6 with a 5.63 ERA in the World Series, so not exactly Bob Gibson. Kershaw was actually better in the World Series than Verlander, going 3-2 with a 4.42 ERA (not exactly Koufax). Scherzer has started six World Series games, going 1-0 with a 3.54 ERA.

This generation's ultimate ace

Like Koufax and Gibson and Juan Marichal -- the three great pitchers of the 1960s -- or like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez -- the three greats of the 1990s and early 2000s (with a fourth, Roger Clemens, in his own separate category) -- Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer will always be linked. They've each won three Cy Young Awards and though Kershaw has three World Series rings to two apiece for Verlander and Scherzer, he wasn't on the 2024 playoff roster and his contributions in 2025 were minimal.

Kershaw has one clear advantage: We picture him in one uniform, those gleaming Dodgers home jerseys, a large crowd cheering him on, Vin Scully on the call. A young Kershaw faced the pressures of matching the legacy of Koufax -- and in many ways, he ended up exceeding it.

Verlander's best years were split between the Tigers and Houston Astros, then he spent that ill-fated half season with the Mets in 2023 and last year with the San Francisco Giants. Scherzer has become an arm for hire after leaving the Nationals, going to the Dodgers, Mets, Texas Rangers and Blue Jays.

My favorite pitcher to watch of the three was Scherzer during his Nationals years. Maybe it was the intensity, the way he'd stomp around the mound after a big strikeout, or maybe his attitude of challenging hitters along the lines of, "Hey, I'm going to throw my fastball, you know I'm going to throw my fastball, I might even just throw it right down the middle of the plate, see if you can hit it." There was always something more old-school about Scherzer's approach that I found appealing.

But he's not the ultimate ace of this generation. It took him a couple of years too many at the beginning of his career before turning into an ace to quite match Kershaw and Verlander. So, who's No. 1? If Verlander had pitched better in his nine World Series starts, he would clearly be the guy. But he didn't, so we're left with Verlander versus Kershaw.

Do we have to answer?