Let's overreact to NFL Week 11: MVP for Josh Allen? Sack record for Myles Garrett?

DENVER -- The Chiefs and Broncos spent the first half circling each other like prizefighters, fully cognizant of the stakes and being careful not to make the devastating mistake. It was 6-6 at halftime -- two field goals apiece, nothing to indicate which way it would go.

In the second half, they started throwing haymakers. And scoring touchdowns. They ended up delivering a classic rivalry game that turned on a sack by Broncos defensive back Ja'Quan McMillian -- his second of the game, to go with an interception -- and ended when Broncos kicker Wil Lutz made a 35-yard field goal as time ran out for a 22-19 Denver victory.

Coincidentally, it was the same length field goal that Lutz had blocked as time ran out in Kansas City last year to deliver the Broncos their most heartbreaking loss of the 2024 season. But this isn't last year. The Broncos were 1-6 in one-score games last season. They're 7-2 in them this year. The Chiefs were 11-0 in one-score games last season. This year, they're 0-5.

"I'd be lying if I didn't say it was a big win," Broncos coach Sean Payton said when it was over. It's maybe the biggest any team had in Week 11, when you factor in the history and the circumstances.

The Broncos now head into their bye week with a two-game division lead over the Chargers and a 3.5-game lead over the Chiefs, who have won the division nine years in a row, with six games left in their season. So while we sort through the Week 11 overreactions to try and figure out which ones might hold up and which ones are mirages, it seems right to start things in Denver.

Jump to:
Chiefs' AFC West championship run over?
Offensive line to cost Chargers the playoffs?
Is Allen the MVP favorite again?
Do Rams have their best team of Stafford era?
Garrett will shatter single-season sacks record?
Fantasy-related overreactions

The Chiefs' division title streak is over

Not only is Kansas City 5-5, but it's lost two in a row to AFC contenders Buffalo and Denver. Those games were wrapped around the Chiefs' bye week, which makes Sunday's result even more remarkable because it drops coach Andy Reid's record to 22-5 coming off a bye.

Kansas City enters Week 12 on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The Chiefs are only a game behind the Jaguars, who would be the seventh seed if the playoffs started today, but they lost to them, too, so the Chiefs are effectively two games behind Jacksonville.

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Broncos prevail on Wil Lutz's game-wining FG as time expires

The Broncos take down the Chiefs on the back of a Wil Lutz's field goal as time expires.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Chiefs have a ton of work to do to just get a wild-card spot. Sunday's result makes the math incredibly daunting in terms of extending their division title streak to an even decade. The Chiefs are also 1.5 games behind the second-place Chargers in the AFC West and lost to the Chargers in Week 1, so they'd be behind Los Angeles in the head-to-head tiebreaker, too (though they do play them both one more time). But the main reason this isn't an overreaction is because the Broncos deserve their respect.

Sure, second-year QB Bo Nix is erratic, but he's been nails in the fourth quarter, which is a heck of a foundation while he develops into a more stable quarterback. And Denver's defense is very clearly championship-caliber. It recorded three more sacks Sunday to give the Broncos a staggering 49 through 11 games, which has them on pace to break the 1984 Bears' single-season record. They're a nightmare to play against, even without reigning Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II and leading tackler Alex Singleton, neither of whom played Sunday.

If defensive coordinator Vance Joseph's group continues to play like this, the offense can afford to be in-and-out and rescue games in the fourth quarter. They've won eight games in a row and trailed in all of them. This is who they are, and how they win, and the Broncos go into their bye in an extremely good spot.

The Chargers' offensive line issues are going to cost them a playoff spot

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert was awful in a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday. It was bound to happen eventually. With both starting offensive tackles out for the season -- one of whom (Rashawn Slater) has been sidelined since the preseason -- Herbert has been taking a pounding and producing in spite of the hits. But the dam broke Sunday.

Before being pulled for Trey Lance early in the fourth quarter with the game out of reach, Herbert was pressured on 11 of 23 dropbacks -- 48%, the second-highest figure for him this season. The Chargers are 7-4 and would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today. They are on bye next week, so Herbert has a chance to heal up. But they're going to come out of the bye with the same tackle situation they have now, and that's not good.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Texans, Chiefs and Ravens -- teams we're used to seeing in the playoffs -- are each 5-5 and lurking, waiting to take the playoff spot from a team that slips. Baltimore is playing much better than it did in the first half of the season and still has a shot to win its division. But all three of those teams could still get into the playoffs, which would knock out teams like the AFC North-leading Steelers, the 6-4 Jaguars and the Chargers.

Los Angeles' next three games are against the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs -- all of whom can pressure the quarterback. The Chargers get a break in Week 16 against Dallas' defense but finish with games against the Texans and Broncos -- arguably the two best defenses in the NFL right now. How are the Chargers going to protect Herbert for six more games?

Josh Allen will win his second straight MVP award

The Bills' quarterback and reigning NFL MVP was incredible in a 44-32 victory over the Buccaneers on Sunday. Allen accounted for six total touchdowns -- three passing and three rushing -- while throwing for 317 yards and rushing for 40. This was a game in which Allen needed to be Superman, and he was.

He completed passes to nine different people. His leading receiver was Tyrell Shavers, so congrats if you predicted that. Gabe Davis, who wasn't even on the team last week, caught three passes for 40 yards. This was a classic Allen-has-to-win-it-for-us game, a shootout against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. The Bills needed a win after last week's upset loss to Miami, and Allen won it for them.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Allen also threw two interceptions on Sunday, bringing his season total to seven -- one more than he threw all last season. He's been a little more inconsistent this season than he was last year. There's no shame in that -- Allen and the Bills' offense were a machine in 2024. But they're currently trailing the Patriots in the AFC East and just haven't clicked as consistently as they want to.

There is still time. Buffalo could catch the Patriots, Allen could finish on a tear and absolutely could win his second MVP award in a row. He's unquestionably good enough. But this year, with guys like Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye and, shoot, Jonathan Taylor doing what they're doing, it doesn't look like Allen has put himself in position to separate from the MVP pack.

This is the best Rams team of the Matthew Stafford era

The Rams beat the Seahawks 21-19 in the other huge matchup Sunday afternoon, improving to 8-2 and taking sole possession of first place in the NFC West, where they're a game ahead of 7-3 Seattle and 1.5 games up on the 7-4 49ers. They Rams have a top-five defense, a top-five offense and Stafford has played out of his mind this season. He has thrown 273 straight passes without an interception and has only thrown two picks to 27 touchdown passes. The Rams have a monster run game out of these three-tight-end formations they're majoring in this season and can win in several different ways.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This isn't simple a "Well, the 2021 team won the Super Bowl, so unless they do that ..." commentary. Stafford wasn't brilliant Sunday. He was 15-for-28 for 130 yards. The Seahawks outgained Los Angeles 414 yards to 249. The Rams were 2-for-11 on third down. They're a really good team and deserve to be considered the favorite in the NFC following Sunday's win (pending Sunday night's Lions-Eagles result), but the 2021 team had Cooper Kupp putting up an historic wide receiver season and got a boost from midseason acquisitions Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller. Oh, it also had Aaron Donald.

Could this Rams team reach those same heights? Sure, but it doesn't have the same star power, and it needed the Seahawks to turn the ball over four times and miss a 61-yard field goal at the end to win by two points Sunday. The Seahawks will still have something to say about whether the Rams even win the NFC West.

Myles Garrett will smash the single-season sacks record

Sure, the Browns lost to the Ravens on Sunday. No big news there. The Browns are 2-8 and lose all the time. But Garrett is having a ridiculous season, and it needs to be pointed out. He had four more sacks Sunday to give him 15 for the season and 10 in his last three games. He's on pace to finish with 25.5 sacks, which would easily break the single-season record of 22.5 set by Michael Strahan in 2001 and matched by T.J. Watt 20 years later.

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Myles Garrett makes NFL history after sacking Lamar Jackson

Myles Garrett takes down Lamar Jackson and becomes the first player in NFL history to have at least 12 sacks in six consecutive seasons.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Why doubt him? Garrett obviously doesn't need to be in the best possible environment to pile up sacks. His team obviously doesn't need to be playing from ahead. He obviously can beat double teams. The Browns get the Raiders, 49ers, Titans and Bears in their next four games. All of those teams have sackable quarterbacks.

Garrett doesn't seem to have much else to play for. He's signed long-term and knows he's in the middle of what feels like an eternal rebuild. Get your sacks, Myles. Make your history. Make them remember that you were maybe the best player in the league at a time when your team couldn't get you anywhere near the playoffs.

Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions

• Sean Tucker needs to be on rosters in every league. NOT AN OVERREACTION. At least not until we get some clarity on Bucky Irving's timetable to return. Tucker is clearly running better than Rachaad White and should continue to get opportunities to do so after Sunday's blowup.

• Tetairoa McMillan is a WR1 the rest of the way. OVERREACTION. Great player, not a great QB situation. You think Bryce Young is throwing for 448 yards every week? McMillan has to be in lineups, but Carolina's offense will remain run-heavy and McMillan doesn't have the week-to-week consistency of a WR1.

• Nico Collins is the only Texans player you can start. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Running back Woody Marks still isn't much more than a passing-game player in that offense, and with Davis Mills starting at QB, you don't want to over-invest in this passing game. It wasn't even that great with C.J. Stroud. But Stroud and Mills both know what they have in Collins and have shown they can get him the ball.

• Time to pick up Shedeur Sanders in dynasty! OVERREACTION. The Browns have two first-round picks next year and didn't put Sanders into a until Dillon Gabriel got hurt in Week 11. Sanders went 4-of-16 for 47 yards and an interception. You getting married to that?

• John Metchie III is worth a flyer with Garrett Wilson out for the Jets. OVERREACTION. Maybe, maybe the Jets' passing game might show some life if they switch to backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor. But that's still a maybe and we don't know if they'll make that switch. Besides, Thursday night dropsies aside, I still think Adonai Mitchell is the WR to have the Jets.