NBA awards update: Why Cunningham, Wembanyama are the bets to make for MVP

With right around six weeks left in the NBA regular season, it's a perfect time to go around the league and take a closer look at the awards races.

Which are a done deal? Which ones are still up for grabs?

Let's take a deep dive into each award, going over the leader, the players in the hunt and the long shots of interest, and explains the bets to make.

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are as of publication.

Most Valuable Player

Leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-250)
In the hunt: Nikola Jokic (+425), Cade Cunningham (+700)
Longer shots of interest: Victor Wembanyama (25-1), Jaylen Brown (40-1), Luka Doncic (75-1), Anthony Edwards (250-1)

There is a new candidate for MVP this season that is dominating the race, and it wears the number "65". A few years ago, the NBA set a threshold of 65 games played for any player to be considered for any individual award. The threshold was part of the league's effort to cut down on the perceived "load management" that was becoming very unpopular among the fanbase, but the decision has yielded unintended consequences. One is what is happening in this MVP race, where several of the top MVP candidates either already have or are on-pace-to miss more than 17 games, too many absences to actually win the award.

Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, has been sidelined with an abdominal injury and has already missed 11 of the Thunder's 60 games so far, including the last nine in a row. He is set to return to the lineup Friday at home against Denver, however. Jokic, the three-time MVP and reigning runner-up, has missed 16 games. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already missed 27 games and fellow former MVP Joel Embiid has missed 26. The stars of Los Angeles, Doncic and Kawhi Leonard, have missed 12 and 13 games, respectively. Wembanyama has missed 14 games for the Spurs.

Gilgeous-Alexander remains the odds-on favorite at DraftKings to win his second consecutive MVP while Jokic is second, but if either miss just a handful more games down the stretch then either or both could be ineligible for the award. And for the betting public, that is where things get interesting because it would open up the MVP race to candidates that weren't expected to have a chance to win. Two candidates in particular catch my attention as value bets in that scenario.

Cunningham is building a case that could win MVP even if SGA and Jokic are eligible. He has led the Pistons to the best record in the NBA right now, overtaking the Thunder for the top spot. Cunningham is 12th in the NBA in scoring (25.4 PPG), second in assists (9.8 APG) and fourth among guards with 5.7 RPG. Cunningham is the only All-Star on a team that has dominated the league all season, and if the Pistons end the season with the best record Cunningham will have a strong narrative argument to win his first MVP.

Wembanyama dropped out of the MVP race when he had an extended injury absence from mid-November into December, with the assumption he would miss the games threshold. But when the Spurs brought him back, they brought him along slowly with limited minutes and even a role off the bench for awhile with the purpose of getting him action every game with less risk of re-injury. And the strategy has been very successful so far, with Wembanyama having played in 32 of the Spurs' last 34 games, including the last 23 straight.

There is a growing sentiment that Wemby will make the 65-game threshold, as evidenced by his being the extreme favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year (-500). He could only win DPoY if he reaches the 65-game threshold, so if he is eligible for that award he'd be eligible for the MVP as well. And, like Cunningham, Wemby is building an MVP case that would be competitive even if SGA and Jokic reach 65 games. He is acclaimed as clearly the best defensive player in the league while still averaging 23.7 PPG on offense.

Wemby has also led the Spurs into contention at least a season before they were expected to get there. They are currently the hottest team in the NBA on an 11-game winning streak and only trail the Thunder by 1.5 games for the top seed in the West. If the Spurs do overtake the Thunder and Wemby gets to 65 games, he will have a strong narrative to win his first MVP.

Ultimately, both SGA and Jokic are still currently eligible to win MVP, but betting on SGA in particular doesn't have enough juice (-250) to be worth a futures bet. I do see some value in Jokic at +425, because if every player hits the 65-game threshold Jokic measures out as the best and most valuable player. But Cunningham has more juice than either without the risk of missing the threshold to give him more value. Wemby has a similar threshold risk, but is getting much more juice (+1900). All told, at this point in the season I think Cunningham and Wemby are the bets to make for MVP.

Rookie of the Year

Leader: Cooper Flagg (-125)
In the hunt: Kon Knueppel (-105)
Longshots of interest: VJ Edgecombe (100-1), Derik Queen (500-1)

This has become a two-man race between former college teammates. Flagg was already the odds-on favorite to win, but his four-game span starting Jan. 29 where he averaged 37.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 4.5 APG pretty much locked up the award for him ... if he reaches the 65-game threshold. Flagg has missed nine games so far and is currently sidelined by a foot injury that has kept him out of the last five games and does not yet have a return timeline.

This opens up the door for Knueppel, Flagg's teammate at Duke who is on pace to have the best 3-point shooting season by a rookie in NBA history. Knueppel has averaged 19.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 3.5 3PG while flirting with 50/40/90 shooting percentages. He has also helped lead the Hornets' renaissance into playoff consideration, earning him more credit and likely votes for this award.

Sixth Man of the Year

Leader: Naz Reid (+120)
In the hunt: Keldon Johnson (+240), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+650)
Longer shots of interest: Reed Sheppard (15-1), Tim Hardaway Jr. (17-1), Dylan Harper (200-1)

This award always fluctuates throughout the season, and of late it's Reid -- the 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year winner -- who has moved into the pole position. Reid is on pace for career-best marks in scoring (14.1 PPG), rebounds (6.4 RPG), assists (2.5 APG) and steals (1.0 SPG), all ahead of the numbers he produce when winning the award a couple seasons ago.

Johnson has been a strong sixth man all season for a Spurs team that could end up as the top seed. Jaquez's production has slowed since he was the favorite to win this earlier in the season, but Sheppard is coming on of late and his odds have improved enough for consideration.

Defensive Player of the Year

Leader: Victor Wembanyama (-500)
In the hunt: Chet Holmgren (+400)
Longshots of interest: Rudy Gobert (15-1), Scottie Barnes (35-1), Amen Thompson (100-1), Ausar Thompson (100-1)

When last we looked at this race, Wemby was at plus money (+400) because of concerns about him hitting the game threshold. Now, if he gets to 65 games, he is the overwhelming favorite to win the award.

If not, Holmgren is next most likely to take it home. The only other player in the conversation is Gobert, who has won four times before, and has really improved in the rankings since the last update. If Wembanyama misses the games threshold and Gobert's Timberwolves finish strong like they did last season, Gobert could be up for his fifth DPOY.