One more look at NFL Week 14: We have sleepers, QB questions, trends to watch and more

Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Lions defeated the Cowboys on Thursday night. Now, let's look at what you need to know for the remaining 13 games on the slate. We have last-minute nuggets to know.

First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then, fantasy writer Eric Moody highlights five players who are rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That's followed by NFL analyst Ben Solak's three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen's key matchup to watch and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado's favorite bet for Week 14. We also asked our NFL Nation reporters to answer questions about interesting QB situations around the league.

Where do the Steelers have a clear advantage over the Ravens? Does Jets wide receiver Adonai Mitchell have fantasy upside against the Dolphins? Will the Offensive Player of the Year race get decided this week? How will the Bears try to get past the Packers' defense? Will offense be limited in the Commanders-Vikings matchup? What's the latest on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert's left hand injury? We dig into all of it.

Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Bet of the week | QB questions

Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 14 winners

Will the Broncos' pass rush be too much for Raiders quarterback Geno Smith?

The Broncos are on pace to tie the single-season team sack record (72). There is arguably no better matchup for them to move ahead of that pace than a game against the Raiders.

Smith has taken sacks at a 10.6% rate, the highest among all QBR-qualifying quarterbacks this season. And with Denver as solid favorites in Las Vegas, the Broncos should force Smith into plenty of desperate passing situations. Denver, which ranks fourth in pass rush win rate (42.8%), sacked Smith six times in Week 10.

Will Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr. be able to limit Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

This is a No. 1 vs. No. 1 matchup of sorts. Smith-Njigba, even after his least productive game of the season (23 yards versus the Vikings), is averaging 4.3 yards per route run this season. That not only leads all players in 2025, but it also leads all players in any season since at least 2007.

Terrell is also quietly putting up exceptional numbers this season. He has allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap, lowest among all outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps. His success comes primarily via target deterrence -- perhaps why his strong season hasn't received a ton of attention. His 9% target rate is also lowest among that same set of cornerbacks. Though Terrell won't always be on Smith-Njigba, their snaps against each other could be critical Sunday.

Could fumbles be the key to victory for a Steelers upset over the Ravens?

The playoff leverage for this game is massive. The Ravens have a 75% chance to reach the playoffs with a win but just a 31% chance with a loss, per ESPN's Football Power Index. It's a similar story for Pittsburgh -- 64% and 19%, respectively.

The Ravens are favored going into the contest, but the Steelers have the edge in one high-leverage area: fumbles. No team has forced fumbles at a higher rate this season than the Steelers (on 2.0% of defensive plays). And the Ravens have been particularly susceptible to fumbling, doing so at the second-highest rate in the league (2.8% of the time on offense). If Pittsburgh can continue that trend in Week 14, that could even the playing field.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up -- and can start this week

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (38.3% rostered)

Since the Jaguars' bye, Lawrence has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three of his past five games. He's surrounded by playmakers, such as Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Brenton Strange. Meanwhile, the Colts' secondary has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season. Lawrence is a solid option for managers desperate at quarterback in Week 14.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (33.9% rostered)

Strange's snaps, routes run and targets all trended up in the past two games. That's encouraging, as he has come back from a hip injury, which forced him onto injured reserve. Strange has scored at least 13 fantasy points in back-to-back games and recorded his first touchdown of the season against the Titans in Week 13. He faces a Colts defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, New York Jets (28.2% rostered)

Mitchell finished with a season-high 12 targets and 102 receiving yards in Week 13 against the Falcons. Since getting traded to New York, his target share has grown each week. The Dolphins have limited opposing wide receivers to the fewest fantasy points per game, but they've been more vulnerable on a per-play basis, allowing the highest completion percentage and seventh-highest yards per pass attempt.

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Why Field Yates sees fantasy upside for Adonai Mitchell in Week 14

Field Yates explains why he sees fantasy upside in Jets WR Adonai Mitchell for Week 14 vs. the Dolphins.

Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, Washington Commanders (28.0% rostered)

Rodriguez had at least 11 touches and nine fantasy points in three of his past four games. He scored a touchdown in three of those outings. The Commanders' backfield remains a committee, but Rodriguez looks like the leader against Minnesota. The Vikings' defense has also allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game, putting him in a favorable spot for Week 14.

Devaughn Vele, WR, New Orleans Saints (7.7% rostered)

Since the Saints moved on from wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks, Vele's role has exploded. His route participation has jumped significantly, and he has turned 15 targets over the past two games into 130 yards and a touchdown. With New Orleans out of playoff contention, it makes sense for the Saints to lean on their young talent. Vele faces a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers.

Solak: Don't be surprised if ...

The Broncos have their big loss

The Rams were 9.5-point favorites when the Panthers shocked them last week, serving as a good reminder that any team can lose at any time in the NFL. The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites in Las Vegas, playing a Raiders team that matched up well against them in the first meeting. Denver is also on a shorter week, coming off an overtime game Sunday night. This one might get ugly.

Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett breaks the single-season sack record

Garrett is only four sacks from surpassing the single-season mark of 22.5, attained by Michael Strahan (2001) and T.J. Watt (2021). Garrett gets a home matchup against rookie Cam Ward, one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL. This might be a rare instance in which the Browns nurse a second-half lead, and Garrett truly gets a chance to go on a tear.

Offensive Player of the Year gets decided this week

Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor are in a dead heat for the award. Smith-Njigba gets a Falcons defense that just gave up 100 receiving yards to Adonai Mitchell and the Jets, and he is coming off a career-worst game -- expect JSN to get early and big production. Taylor is in a must-win divisional game against a suspect Jags run defense -- expect him to get 25-plus touches. Either one of them is going for 150 yards and two touchdowns this week.

Bowen: Key matchup to watch

The Bears' 12 personnel run game vs. the Packers' defensive front

We should see a steady use of 12 personnel -- one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers -- from the Bears to create run game production Sunday. Coach Ben Johnson's offense has run the ball 133 times out of 12 personnel this season, fourth most in the league. The Bears like to use their tight ends to win the edges, while also generating backside cutback lanes on unique "wham" blocks. Plus, Johnson will get his tight ends in motion before the snap to give them better blocking angles.

However, the Bears could have a challenge opening lanes for running backs D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. The Packers' defense has allowed 3.9 yards per carry this season, which is tied for fifth best in the NFL.

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Orlovsky to McAfee: Bears' pass game still leaves a lot to be desired

Dan Orlovsky tells Pat McAfee that Caleb Williams has improved but that the Bears' passing game still leaves a lot to be desired.

Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 14

UNDER 42.5 points in Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings

Both offenses are stuck behind their limitations. Washington's QB situation keeps the ceiling low, as Jayden Daniels is making his first start since dislocating his left elbow Nov. 9. The Commanders move the ball well but rarely finish drives, and the Vikings quietly rank third in red zone touchdown rate allowed (48.6%).

Minnesota's offense is an even bigger drag. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is expected to return, but he has been the least efficient signal-caller in the league in every meaningful metric. Both teams should lean one-dimensional, throwing loads but not generating sustained efficiency.

NFL Nation: QB questions

How close is Caleb Williams to unlocking his full potential in the Bears' passing game?

Williams believes the Bears are "so close" to unlocking the passing game. He pointed to several examples from the win in Philadelphia, where his receivers were in the right spot at the right time and slipped due to field conditions or there was a miscommunication between himself and his primary target. When Ben Johnson said Chicago is winning games "in spite of our passing game, not because of it," he's right, but it's not just Williams who has to fix those issues.

The key to getting the passing attack on track is route depth and ball placement. Williams said he needs to be clean with his footwork, and when he moves through the concepts, he should make sure his drop is right and his passes hit receivers in stride. -- Courtney Cronin, Bears reporter

Has Trevor Lawrence found his go-to receiver in Jakobi Meyers, and what has made their connection so strong so quickly?

It's easier to let Lawrence explain it. Here he is Nov. 19, after playing just two games with Meyers: "I like throwing to him. He's just an easy guy to throw to from a quarterback perspective. It's kind of hard to describe sometimes, just the way he moves, it seems very clear what he is going to do. So, that's something I really like."

That's a long way of saying he trusts Meyers. The stats bear that out: 18 catches on a team-high 21 targets since Meyers was acquired Nov. 4. The Jaguars had a league-high 19 drops in the eight games before Meyers was acquired but have just five in the four games since then. -- Michael DiRocco, Jaguars reporter

What's the latest on Justin Herbert and if he'll play with a left hand fracture?

Despite having surgery on his left hand four days ago, no one in the organization appears concerned about Herbert missing Monday's game against the Eagles. Herbert practiced Thursday with a cast, throwing passes and catching snaps as normal, though gripping the ball with his left hand still appears to be a challenge. After his injury against the Raiders, the Chargers operated exclusively from the shotgun and pistol, a plan expected to continue Monday. If the Chargers need an under-center snap, they will likely turn to backup quarterback Trey Lance. -- Kris Rhim, Chargers reporter