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As the 2025 season began, the volume of high-end quarterbacks resonated as one of the year's defining themes.
Heading into week 4, there's still little clarity regarding who could emerge from that pack as the top quarterback for the 2026 NFL draft.
ESPN polled 25 NFL scouts and executives to see who they projected as the top quarterback for the upcoming draft. The responses were varied, as seven different quarterbacks came back as the answer for QB1 among the 25 different responses.
South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers came back as the top vote-getter with 8, edging LSU's Garrett Nussmeier (7). The next crop, in order are Miami's Carson Beck (3), Oklahoma's John Mateer (3), Penn State's Drew Allar (2), Arizona State's Sam Leavitt (1) and Texas' Arch Manning (1).
While there's been a handful of hyped players who've slumped, the crop is still considered a significant uptick from last season.
The poll should be considered more of a touchstone of the varied opinions than a scientific projection. Last season, we conducted the same poll heading into Week 6. At that time, Colorado's Shedeur Sanders led Beck 9 votes to 5 among the 25 scouts/executives. Cam Ward got one vote. It's also uncertain who'll declare, as Sellers, Mateer, Leavitt and Manning all have eligibility remaining.
The way scouting works, scouts and general managers don't evaluate everyone week by week. Many general managers don't dig in intensively until after the season. There's a process of checking and cross-checking that often goes by region, so many scouts haven't dug into all the prospects in the same way they will by the end of the season.
"Much like last year," said a general manager, "it's hard to pick this early."
Why is Sellers the early favorite?
"He's got most physical talent," one veteran scout told ESPN. "His ability to scramble and make plays with his feet as a runner. He's instinctive and ball comes out quick. He's got a unique talent level. The kid, his story and how he got there. He's got a toughness to him. It intrigues people.
"He's got the make-up, intangibles and ability to run. He's got the most potential to be an impact player."
The debate between Sellers and Nussmeier came down to physical traits for some scouts. Sellers is a 6-foot-3 and 240 pound redshirt sophomore who fits the modern paradigm of quarterbacks who can be a threat in the called run game.
Nussmeier is listed at 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds and is considered a good athlete, as LSU coach Brian Kelly wanted him to use his legs more this season as part of his development. While both are in their second full season as a starter, Nussmeier has been in school five seasons and is the son of an NFL offensive coordinator.
"Instinctive and finds away," said another scout. "He's got a great feel for the position and a good arm."
Beck has helped himself in the early part of the season, as he struggled in stretches during 2024 after entering the season as the projected favorite to be the top quarterback in the 2025 draft.
"Let's see if Beck can continue his renaissance," said a scout, "because there's enough ability there."
Mateer's performance against Michigan convinced a few scouts, as he also fits the more pure dual-threat role.
Most scouts around the NFL expected Manning to go to school another year, and that belief has only been amplified by his tepid start to the 2025 season.
"He's very talented," said a scout. "Just from top-to-bottom, arm talent. Just understanding in the pocket and seeing the field and feeling the field. You see his arm strength.
"He just needs to get everything under control and for the game to slow down."
