The new Mets are better than the old Mets -- and we can prove it

No MLB team has had as interesting an offseason as the New York Mets. Gone are longtime lineup anchors Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil, plus closer Edwin Diaz and designated hitter Starling Marte, a group that played a combined 36 seasons with the Mets.

Joining the team: Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., Devin Williams and Luke Weaver.

None of this should be a surprise, as president of baseball operations David Stearns said the Mets weren't "going to take anything off the table" at his 2025 season-ending news conference after they finished 83-79, tying the Cincinnati Reds for the final wild card but losing out on the tiebreaker to miss the playoffs.

While Mets fans remain upset about losing fan favorites such as Alonso, Nimmo and Diaz, it didn't make sense to bring back the same core of players. The Mets had the second-highest payroll in the sport last season and watched October baseball from their homes. Even when they reached the NLCS in 2024, they weren't that good, going 89-73. After signing Juan Soto last winter and receiving a much better season from Alonso in 2025, the Mets nonetheless scored two fewer runs and then the pitching collapsed down the stretch as they went 21-32 over the final two months.

So, Stearns set out to remake the roster.

This certainly doesn't feel like Plan A, but credit Stearns for his flurry of moves this week that saved the offseason. After the Mets lost out on Kyle Tucker, they reacted quickly to sign Bichette. While not a perfect fit for the roster, he'll fit nicely alongside Francisco Lindor and Soto at the top of the lineup. They also still needed an outfielder and a No. 1 starter, so Stearns made the trade for Robert and used a deep farm system to acquire Peralta.

It's an overhaul that few front offices are willing to risk. It pushed Stearns out of his comfort zone -- he certainly never traded prospects for veterans when he ran the Milwaukee Brewers -- but in New York, there is no rebuilding. Plus, with Soto in his prime and Lindor likely entering the tail end of his best years, you need to be all-in every season.

But the question remains: Are the Mets better?

The current FanGraphs projections rank the Mets third -- behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees and just ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays -- so maybe the simple answer is "yes." But let's do some roster math to see where the Mets stand.

Players coming in

In baseball, there are two accounting tricks going on: wins and payroll. Even the Mets have some constraints on how much they are willing to spend on salaries. While Stearns made some big-market moves, he's also keeping an eye on the long-term payroll and roster flexibility. Semien, for example, will make a few more million this year than Nimmo, but he is signed for three more seasons compared to five for Nimmo. Getting out of those final two years of Nimmo's contract -- a player who peaked in 2022 and 2023 -- while getting a similarly valued player in Semien in return is a good move.

It's a similar deal with Alonso and Polanco. The Mets clearly don't believe Alonso is going to age well. The Baltimore Orioles signed him for five years at an annual average value of $31 million. Polanco comes to the Mets for two years and $20 million per season. Yes, less projected offense for the immediate future, but a lower salary and less long-term risk.

Let's look at the projections for the seven primary new players for the Mets: Bichette, Peralta, Semien, Polanco, Robert, Williams and Weaver.

FanGraphs projected WAR for 2026: 15.5

Total AAV salary: $145.75 million (including $5.75 million payment to the Athletics for McNeil)

That WAR total includes 4.4 for Bichette, a conservative 2.7 for Peralta (he was worth 5.5 bWAR in 2025) and 2.1 for Polanco (not far off the 2.6 he had for the Seattle Mariners in 2025).

Along the way this winter, the Mets have also improved defensively. Semien is coming off a Gold Glove campaign with the Texas Rangers. Robert obviously comes with injury risk and questions about his offense, but he is excellent in center field, ranking in the 93rd percentile in range via Statcast in 2025. Either rookie Carson Benge or Tyrone Taylor will be a defensive upgrade in left field over Nimmo. Bichette has never played third, but he should be fine there, at least as good as Brett Baty and better than Mark Vientos. Baty or Vientos should be an upgrade over Alonso at first base. So that's possible defensive upgrades at four positions and maybe a fifth.

Those are Stearns' Brewers roots showing up.

Players going out

The five primary departures are Alonso, Nimmo, Diaz, McNeil and Marte. Peralta and Weaver essentially replace free agents Griffin Canning and Ryne Stanek. We'll use the 2026 AAV salary for the four players with contracts and the 2025 salaries for Marte, Canning and Stanek.

2025 Baseball Reference WAR: 12.4

2026 FanGraphs projected WAR: 11.0

Total AAV salary: $114.5 million

For an additional $31 million or so in payroll, the Mets have replaced seven key players and added 4.5 projected wins. That's solid work by Stearns, considering a win on the free market is worth an estimated $10 million to $11 million.

Overall, via Roster Resource at FanGraphs, the Mets estimated 2026 payroll is $365 million, up from $340 million last year. The 2026 payroll includes $17 million in dead money for the released Frankie Montas, that $5.75 million to the A's for McNeil, plus a one-time $5 million to the Rangers for part of Nimmo's contract.

There could be more moves in the works. Stearns could trade Baty or Vientos perhaps for an outfielder or pitching help. Kodai Senga, signed for two more years at $14 million (with a 2028 club option), has been mentioned as a trade candidate as well.

Are the Mets now the favorite in the National League East?

Despite all of this, it still doesn't feel like most fans or analysts view the Mets as the third-best team in baseball. While the Dodgers are the clear No. 1 team, it's a tight field after that with a dozen teams separated by just seven wins in the FanGraphs projections.

While the offense looks stable and the defense has improved, that leaves the pitching as the likely key to the Mets' fortunes in 2026. The rotation lines up as:

Freddy Peralta
Nolan McLean
David Peterson
Clay Holmes
Sean Manaea
Kodai Senga
Jonah Tong

Tobias Myers, part of the Peralta trade, is probably next in line, with Christian Scott, who's returning from Tommy John surgery, perhaps in the mix later in the season. That feels like a solid group, although FanGraphs ranks it just 15th in the majors, projecting regression from Peralta and a so-so 3.72 ERA from McLean, who flashed ace potential in his eight-start call-up last season with a 2.06 ERA. Tong struggled in his five-start call-up despite leading the minors in strikeouts at the time he was called up, but his ceiling remains high.

The bullpen, other than Diaz, wasn't good in 2025, finishing 15th in ERA. Signing the two former Yankees in Williams and Weaver is intriguing, as neither had their best season in 2025. Looking past Williams' ugly 4.79 ERA, however, his peripheral numbers remained excellent. No, he might not match Diaz's 2025 numbers (1.63 ERA), but Diaz has been inconsistent in his career -- and given the declining velocity on his fastball, he isn't the best bet to repeat that dominant season anyway.

Add it all up and the Mets appear better and more balanced heading into the 2026 season. Fans will miss Alonso's energy and Timmy Trumpet blaring when Diaz came in from the bullpen, but winning solves all complaints. This looks like a team that can win the NL East, although it shapes up as a three-team race with the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.

What's fascinating about the Mets is how important one win has been for them in recent history. In 2022, they tied with the Braves for the division title but lost the tiebreaker and had to play the best-of-three wild-card series (which they lost) while the Braves had a bye into the NLDS. In 2024, the Mets, Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks tied for the final two wild cards, with the Diamondbacks losing the tiebreaker. Last year, the Mets lost the tiebreaker to the Reds.

One win can decide the fate of a season. The Mets hope this roster restructuring leads to more than one additional victory.