Three bets on overreactions and mismatches of college football's Rivalry Week

Week 14, the last stop of the regular season. Rivalries and overreactions are everywhere -- and spreads that get a little weird because everyone suddenly remembers they don't like each other.

It's the most entertaining board of the year.

Three games stood out to me for how they actually play, not how the logos make you feel. This is a card of overreaction and straight mismatches.

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia

Pick: Georgia Tech +13.5

C'mon. You know this was going to be on my card. This is about how these teams actually create, or fail to create, margin. Let's get this out of the way first: "Georgia is better than Pitt" as a justification to push the line from -13 to -14.5 is just lazy box score fluff with no premise. It ignores matchup, style and why Pitt beat Tech -- and Georgia can't replicate that script.

Georgia's front is not disruptive enough to break a structure built on a run game led by a mobile quarterback in Haynes King. The Bulldogs are 121st in pressure with only 16 sacks, one of the most important indicators for whether a favorite can create short fields or game-breaking possessions. They simply don't.

Flip it: Tech's run defense grades 12th in the FBS, which matters because Georgia's rushing offense lacks explosive punch. If you can force UGA into 10-12 play drives, they don't separate, they grind. Grinding doesn't cover over two touchdowns on the road.

Add in the rivalry factor, home energy and GT's ability to lean on scripted QB runs, play-action and mid-chunk rushing? The path to a seven- to 10-point Georgia win and Tech to cover is far more realistic. Backing the home side is the sharper side, not the emotional one.

Kansas State vs. Colorado

Pick: Kansas State -16.5

Colorado gave up 422 rushing yards to Utah. That is beyond a blip, that's straight-up structural weakness -- the exact weakness that's attacked when you walk into Manhattan.

K-State has a run identity that doesn't fluctuate with opponent quality. When the Wildcats get downhill, they dictate everything, control possession and stack scoring opportunities, removing any chance for the other team to trade blows.

The Buffaloes fold in that type of game state. All season, they've shown the same pattern: if they can't win on the perimeter, they don't have an answer. You don't cover games giving up 8.3 yards per carry to Utah and expect to handle a team with multiple backs and a quarterback who stresses you on the ground and can pop vertically.

This matchup is trench integrity; K State has it, Colorado doesn't. When a team without a front steps into that stadium, the game stops being a matchup and turns into a physics problem. There's only one side that can survive that equation.

Old Dominion at Georgia State

Pick: Old Dominion -26.5

This is a violent mismatch. Georgia State has multiple games with over 400 yards of offense and still finished with 27 points or fewer. A team that can't convert yards into touchdowns is a team that gets buried by anyone who can score in bunches -- and the Monarchs can score in bunches.

In fact, they're built in a way that exposes every flaw Georgia State has spent three months trying to hide. ODU scores quickly, in chunks, and without needing ideal game states. Its offense lives off explosiveness, averaging 9.1 yards per pass, ripping off totals in the 40s and 50s. Every time ODU sees a fragile defense, the game turns into a track meet and ODU laps its opponent by halftime.

Old Dominion will run Georgia State off the field. I thought about the OVER 58.5 because I can see the Monarchs scoring this on their own. Juiced to the OVER, I'll take the -110 price wager.