UFC 323 expert picks, best bets: Can Merab or Pantoja be stopped?

ESPN's No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter, Merab Dvalishvili (21-4), will defend his bantamweight title for the third time this year at UFC 323 in Las Vegas on Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN PPV; prelims beginning at 6 p.m. on ESPN+). The nine-year UFC veteran from the country of Georgia is taking on former champion Petr Yan (19-5) in a rematch of their 2023 fight that Dvalishvili won by unanimous decision. If Dvalishvili gets his hand raised for the 15th consecutive time on Saturday, he'll become the first UFC fighter to win four title fights in a calendar year.

Another longtime titleholder and top-10 pound-for-pound competitor, Alexandre Pantoja (30-5), puts his men's flyweight belt on the line in the co-main event against upstart 24-year-old Joshua Van (15-2). Like Dvalishvili, Van is making his fourth appearance this year. If Van can figure out how to slow down Pantoja -- something five challengers before him have not done during the Brazilian's two-and-a-half-year reign -- he would become the second-youngest UFC champion ever and first born after 2000.

In all, the final UFC pay-per-view card of the year plays host to seven fighters ranked by ESPN and three ranked-vs.-ranked matchups.

ESPN MMA analysts and commentators provide their title fight predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight on the value bets available on the card.

Men's bantamweight title fight

How do you go against Merab right now? I think he rinses and repeats what he's been doing to everybody. His ability to keep fighters confused and guessing on the feet will win him this fight. Yan will be guessing all night. It won't look as easy as it did in the first fight, but Dvalishvili will win four out of five rounds. -- Din Thomas

Merab is hot, and I think he beats Yan again. He'll wear Yan out. I think back to Yan's fight with Song Yadong in March 2024, and Yan looked very tired in that one. Song fights at a high pace, but Dvalishvili's pace is even faster. Dvalishvili makes a living out of beating people who are in a lot of ways better than him, and he does it by making them tired. He'll do that here. -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of Dec. 4. For the most up-to-date odds, visit DraftKings.

Parker: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-250). Dvalishvili will yet again defend his title in an effort to be known as the most active champion in UFC history. In their first fight, Dvalishvili defeated Yan by doing what he usually does -- shoot a lot of takedowns and control the pace. But Dvalishvili has evolved his game since that fight. He has become a more well-rounded mixed martial artist and is continually improving his striking. As good as Yan is, I don't see Dvalishvili losing his belt any time soon, especially in a five-round fight that makes his cardio a weapon in itself. Yan has never been finished, so take that into consideration when betting this fight.

Men's flyweight title fight

I love Joshua Van. He's one of my favorites right now, but he's not going to win this fight. Pantoja is just too consistent -- and too hungry -- to let a one-dimensional fighter like Van beat him. Pantoja is going to get takedowns early, and Van is going to start worrying about that. Once that happens, Pantoja will start beating him on the feet and then take him down and choke him out. -- Din Thomas

The smart money says Pantoja, because of his experience and familiarity with five-round title fights. I think Van is very, very good, but I suspect this will look a lot like Pantoja's last fight against Kai Kara-France, another dangerous striker. Pantoja wore him out so much you almost started to feel bad for Kai at the end. And Pantoja didn't even look like he was trying all that hard. -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Parker: Pantoja to win by submission (+150). In what could be fight of the night, Pantoja will be looking to successfully defend his title against a rising fan favorite. Van is a good striker with solid power and durability who looked incredible in his last fight against Brandon Royval. However, Pantoja is a wholly different fighter, and I don't see Van getting the win against him. Look for Pantoja to use his striking and forward pressure to eventually take Van down. Once on the canvas, it's a matter of time before the submission ace gets another finish.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the card

Middleweight: Brunno Ferreira vs. Marvin Vettori

Ferreira to win (-102). It's a bit surprising that Vettori is the slight favorite here because he is on the decline of his career and he is taking on a well-rounded and powerful striker. Ferreira has the wrestling and the jiu-jitsu edge over Vettori, and on the feet and his power could be the difference-maker. Vettori's only path to victory is a decision, but with all the damage he has taken in his past few fights, take the underdog with the skills to match him on the feet and upside on the ground.

Men's flyweight: Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira

Moreno to win (+110). This is another interesting and fun fight. Unless Taira can take Moreno down and hold him there for all three rounds, Moreno is more than capable of getting the win. On the feet, Moreno is the better striker and has the cardio to keep the volume up over three rounds. Moreno is a smart fighter and is aware of the danger of letting Taira take his back early, so I have to assume he has done the work to prepare If you want to take your bet a step further, Moreno by decision will get you great odds as well.