Was Oxtoby's Northern Ireland tenure a success?

When Tanya Oxtoby was appointed as Northern Ireland manager in 2023, it was a new direction for women's football in the country.

Alfie Wylie and Kenny Shiels were known names in Northern Ireland, and the latter achieved history with Euro 2022 qualification.

Despite her CV with Chelsea, Oxtoby was seen as something of a left-field appointment, with her experiences sitting at the top level rather than vast knowledge of football in Northern Ireland.

Oxtoby has presided over a Euro 2025 qualifying and two Nations League campaigns, and was set to lead Northern Ireland into next year's World Cup qualifiers.

But now, after just over two years in the job, the Australian has left her role to become Newcastle United's head coach.

So, how will her time as manager be remembered?

To look at how successful her tenure was, we will start by going back to her first press conference in September 2023 when she outlined her objectives.

From her first training session, Oxtoby had spoken about "keeping standards high" - a point of experience from her time as Emma Hayes' assistant with Chelsea.

The terms "processes" and "principles" were soon frequently adopted in player interviews, who have also spoken about the culture and bonds within the group, and the 43-year-old consistently referred to standards and "non-negotiables" in her own media sessions.

Oxtoby has also been critical of conditions faced by her squad on their travels, most notably in Croatia and Iceland.

Succession planning was another key topic from that press conference, and that is one area where you can see progression.

The Euro 2022 squad had a core of experienced campaigners, who brought the team from the ashes to glory, and Marissa Callaghan, Julie Nelson, Sarah McFadden, Ashleigh Hutton and Rachel Furness were all aged 34 or over.

While that success was a sporting fairytale, it was clear there would have to be a transition, and it was a mission that Oxtoby set about from her first squad.

Hutton retired after the Euros and Nelson never featured under the Australian, while Furness saw her minutes limited and McFadden - partially down to injury and the birth of her second child - drifted out of the set-up.

There was also the rather unceremonious axing of Callaghan and Demi Vance ahead of the Euro 2025 play-off with Croatia, which was viewed as ruthless whether you felt it was justified or not.

She handed out nine debuts and, to sum up how the age profile of the squad has changed, five of the squad to face Iceland - Kate Smith, Abi Sweetlove, Mia Moore, Aimee Kerr and Kascie Weir - were not even born when McFadden made her senior debut in 2005.

In fact, the average age of the squad to face Iceland - without captain Simone Magill, who has since announced her pregnancy, and experienced defender Laura Rafferty - was 24.8, compared to the 26.7 average age of the squad which went to the Euros.

The number of caps have also fallen to 27.8 against Iceland, from 42.3 at the Euros.

A higher percentage of NI's squad also play in England or Scotland, with 13 domestic-based players at the Euros compared to just nine, out of a squad of 24, against Iceland.

This is by far the most substantial change that Oxtoby implemented throughout her tenure, and the promotion of youth has been accelerated.

Ultimately, on the pitch, Oxtoby's reign will be remembered for moments of brilliance rather than consistent success and she could not guide NI to the next edition of the Euros.

That is a microcosm of performances too, where Northern Ireland often played well in patches but struggled to string a 90-minute showing together.

The most obvious highlight was Lauren Wade's stunning late winner against Croatia in the first round of Euro 2025 play-offs in October 2024.

Magill stepped up and delivered two memorable late goals to snatch a late win against Bosnia-Herzegovina in February, but there's also the argument the team should not have been in that position to start with after they conceded twice in four minutes after dominating the game.

The four-goal win in Albania was impressive, and victories in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro were also strong outings.

Of the 11 defeats suffered under Oxtoby, all but one were against sides who have featured at the last World Cup or Euros.

The heavy defeats by Norway, Poland, Portugal, Iceland and the Republic of Ireland were a stark reality of NI's position in Europe's pecking order.

And there lies Northern Ireland's biggest issue.

No matter who Northern Ireland's next manager is, the biggest challenge is how to make the next step and contend to reach a second major tournament.

Since the Nations League format was introduced, in Oxtoby's first campaign in charge in 2023, NI have been in League B for every iteration of the competition.

In short, they are too good for League C but any time they have faced League A opposition they have come up well short.

There are no easy answers as to how NI can bridge the gap to the top sides, especially with the young make-up of the squad, who have potential but are far from the finished product.

With Oxtoby on her way back to club football, there is now the question of who will follow in her footsteps.

The Irish FA face a big decision over whether to make an internal appointment, or again look at an external option - a route which England, Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland have now all followed.

There are plenty of talented coaches in football in Northern Ireland, and within the IFA.

Gail Redmond is the current Under-17 and Under-19 manager and stepped up in the interim period between Shiels and Oxtoby, and is likely the leading internal option.

Kim Turner has guided Glentoran to two Women's Premiership titles in three years while at Cliftonville, the trio of John McGrady, Claire Carson and Brendan Lynch have all brought huge success to Solitude.

A number of the Euro 2022 squad, such as former captain Callaghan, record goalscorer Furness and most-capped defender Nelson, have taken steps to develop their own coaching journeys.

While Oxtoby fell short on her own personal ambitions to reaching a major tournament, she has ushered in a new era for Northern Ireland.

In truth, the fruits of Oxtoby's labour may not be seen in this next campaign, or even the one after that.

But now, a new manager will be tasked with taking that challenge on.