With six NFL teams at 0-3, which one needs a win most? Our experts weigh in

Six teams head into Week 4 of the NFL season without a win, and there's a bright side ... and a downside. Two teams will get their first wins (barring the unlikely event of the NFL's first tie since 2022), two teams will not.

Of the six winless teams, four will face off -- the Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans and New York Jets at Miami Dolphins. The other two 0-3 teams are the New Orleans Saints (at the 3-0 Buffalo Bills) and New York Giants (hosting the 3-0 Los Angeles Chargers).

History says a win for the 0-3s would offer a slim chance to make the playoffs, while a loss, well, it would take a historic feat to defy the odds. Since 1990 (when the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format), only one team (1992 San Diego Chargers) has made the playoffs after starting 0-4, but 35 have done it after starting 1-3. In the 14-team playoff format that began in 2020, five have made it after starting 1-3 and all nine 0-4 teams fell short.

There have been four seasons in the past 16 when at least six teams have been 0-3 (2013, 2019, 2020, 2025), and of the winless coaches, two are in their first year. Aaron Glenn (Jets) and Kellen Moore (Saints) are the 31st and 32nd coaches -- not including coaches who have had previous interim jobs -- to start 0-3 since 1990. The previous 30 averaged 4.7 wins per season. The last team to finish with a winning record from that group was the 2004 Buffalo Bills, coached by Mike Mularkey.

Since then, 18 straight 0-3 teams with first-year coaches finished with losing records, and Bobby Ross with the '92 Chargers is the only first-year coach to start 0-3 and make the playoffs since 1990.

Our experts weighed in on what 0-3 means for these six teams and what could happen going forward.

Dolphins

How we got here: A surprising blowout loss to the Colts in Week 1, procedural issues in Week 2 and another hard-fought game against division-rival Buffalo that failed to produce a win. The Dolphins have looked markedly better in their past two games than they did in their 33-8 loss to Indianapolis, but this has been one of the worst defenses in the league through three weeks, ranking last in scoring, third-down defense and takeaways.

How big of a surprise is this start? A loss to the Bills in Buffalo is more or less expected considering the teams' recent history, but a winless start through three games is a surprising development for a team that believed it was close to being on the right track after missing the playoffs last season.

Could changes come soon? Owner Stephen Ross is a patient man who believes in process over results -- to an extent. But at some point, the results have to matter. No Dolphins coach since Dave Wannstedt in 2003 has made it four full seasons, and this is Year 4 for Mike McDaniel; Joe Philbin and Tony Sparano were fired during their fourth seasons with the team, while Adam Gase and Brian Flores were fired after their third seasons. A few more losses with the same issues will test Ross' patience.

What needs to happen to get a win in Week 4? Continue to run the ball well. Ollie Gordon II and De'Von Achane combined for 100 rushing yards in Week 3 as Miami crossed the century mark for the first time all season. On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have to force a turnover against a Jets team that owns a minus-4 turnover differential. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

On a scale of 1-10, how badly does this team need to win in Week 4? 7 -- Miami was always a long shot for the postseason. But sitting at 0-3, this feels like a last stand for this era of the Dolphins with a core of McDaniel, QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Tyreek Hill. It's well within the cards that two-thirds of that group could be gone a couple more losses from now. Ultimately, it might be best for Miami's long-term future if the team enters the trade deadline with a clear view of whether it will be subtracting so it can net a return from veterans like Hill -- and perhaps CB Minkah Fitzpatrick and one of its pass rushers, too. -- Seth Walder

Weakness that could be fixed in the first round: Despite a $79.2 million dead cap hit if the Dolphins were to move on from Tagovailoa, that's where this is headed. Tua has struggled, and the Dolphins haven't surrounded him with the offensive line needed to protect a player who can only succeed when working on-time and in the pocket. Players such as South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Indiana's Fernando Mendoza are all being considered early Round 1 quarterbacks at this time. -- Matt Miller

Quote that tells the tale of the season: "[I] did hear the boos. It's part of the game. The fans pay money, their hard-earned money, to come and see their team play, and we go out there and we don't look the part as we have in previous years. So it's all understandable, and it comes with the game. You get the boos, you get the cheers." -- Tagovailoa

Jets

How we got here: The inability to close games -- two losses in which they squandered a lead in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. That makes five such games since the start of the 2024 season, two more than any other team. Glenn likes to say, "This isn't the Same Old Jets," but it feels like the Same Old Script. It won't change until the defense plays up to its reputation.

How big of a surprise is this start? Not much. The Jets' opponents (Steelers, Bills and Bucs) have a combined record of 8-1, with Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield at quarterback, respectively. In other words, the Jets were fighting up a weight class or two. This was always going to be a monster challenge for a young team starting over.

Could changes come soon? Nope. This is Year 1 of the Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey regime, and they will get plenty of time to turn it around. What about QB Justin Fields, who sat out last week with a concussion? Follow the money. The Jets gave him a $30 million guarantee, so Glenn won't have a quick hook.

What needs to happen to get a win in Week 4? The Jets need to rediscover their identity on offense (run, baby, run), which they flashed in Week 1. The underachieving defense can help the cause by creating short fields. Hard to believe, but the defense still is looking for its first takeaway. -- Rich Cimini

On a scale of 1-10, how badly does this team need to win in Week 4? 2 -- Being winless is not ideal in any circumstance, but this feels like the lowest-stakes hypothetical 0-4 situation. This was always likely to be a placeholder year for the Jets, with a new head coach and GM and quite likely a new quarterback next year. Speaking of quarterback, they've had only two games with Fields, anyway. And they've at least been competitive in two of their three losses. Ultimately, a winless start means the Jets aren't going to make a postseason run in 2025 -- but that was probably the case all along. -- Walder

Weakness that could be fixed in the first round: Fields has been ineffective because of limited passing ability and injury. The Jets have invested draft capital in the offensive line, running back room and have a star receiver in Garrett Wilson. They need a capable driver for the muscle car the front office has assembled. If the Jets land a top-three pick, a quarterback should be expected with Sellers, Nussmeier and Mendoza all comfortably in that conversation. -- Miller

Quote that tells the tale of the season: "We have to delete the negative things in our game, the small things that are helping us lose games. We have to get it out fast because ... you don't want to look up and be 0-10." -- DT Quinnen Williams

Texans

How we got here: The Texans' offense has averaged 12 points per game. Unless you have the 2000 Ravens defense that allowed only 10 points per game, you're going to struggle to string together wins. Under new coordinator Nick Caley, the offense has been underwhelming from a schematic standpoint. There's little creativity to spring wideouts open or running concepts that are opening up the offense.

How big of a surprise is this start? Despite lofty expectations, it's not a big surprise. When you look at their opponents (who are a combined 7-2), they were all teams that could take advantage of the Texans' biggest weakness -- the offensive line.

Could changes come soon? Change already came Tuesday when the Texans released starting safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. If the losing continues with quarterback C.J. Stroud getting beat up (sacked eight times, tied for sixth most) after the team overhauled the offensive line in the offseason, general manager Nick Caserio could be the first one to go.

What needs to happen to get a win in Week 4? Caley's creativity needs to expand to help get players open. They also need to score points. The Titans have struggled stopping offenses (surrendering 31 points per game), so they need to get going against a bad defense. -- DJ Bien-Aime

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Why Foxworth believes the Texans are starting to ruin C.J. Stroud

Domonique Foxworth details how the Texans' infrastructure is causing C.J. Stroud to regress.

On a scale of 1-10, how badly does this team need to win in Week 4? 9 -- Houston is the only team on this list that had legitimate (rational) playoff hopes entering the season, and those hopes are very much on the ropes after the 0-3 start. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Texans a 14% chance to make the playoffs, but a loss to the Titans would drop them down to 6.9%. I'm awfully close to writing off the Texans as is -- if they can't even beat an incredibly shaky Tennessee team then it's over. -- Walder

Weakness that could be fixed in the first round: The tear down of the Houston offensive line needed to happen and should ultimately be a positive once young players develop, but this run game needs attention. Relying on veterans Nick Chubb and eventually a healthy Joe Mixon won't get it done in 2026. The opportunity to grab a top-tier running back like Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love would take pressure off Stroud and balance an offense that looks stagnant through three games. -- Miller

Quote that tells the tale of the season: "We're really close. That's the problem, we just keep reiterating that we're close, and now it's time to fix the issues and be honest with one another. [Coach DeMeco Ryans'] message is just we're going to keep having these results if we don't finish, and we don't ... take care of the ball and just do the small things. The effort is there, the physicality. Now, it's just the execution." -- Stroud

Titans

How we got here: The Titans have been on a steady decline since a seven-game losing streak ended the 2022 season. Trading playmaker A.J. Brown hurt the talent level severely. Tennessee's roster lacks an abundance of true game-changing talent which is probably their biggest issue. Second-year coach Brian Callahan had a tough Year 1, given the talent level on the roster. Pair that with a heavily penalized team and consecutive losses is the result.

How big of a surprise is this start? Not a huge surprise given how the schedule started. The Broncos had one of the top defenses in the league last season, and the Rams are a contender to win the NFC West. This team knew it wasn't going to be a legit contender this season, but if there's one surprise, it would be how Tennessee is leading the league in turnovers after their offseason focus on minimizing mental errors.

Could changes come soon? Change started Tuesday when Callahan relinquished playcalling duties and the Titans traded cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. to the Jets, and more could certainly be on the way if the team continues to struggle. Titans controlling owner Amy Adams-Strunk has made impulse decisions in each of the past three seasons. What's to keep her from doing so again? She fired coach Mike Vrabel before last season. Vrabel will surely look for some 'get back' when he returns to Nissan Stadium with the Patriots on Oct. 19. A loss there could mean the end for Callahan.

What needs to happen to get a win in Week 4? Callahan is known for his work with quarterbacks and desperately needs a breakout performance from rookie Cam Ward. The No. 1 pick in April's draft has been sacked 15 times, more than any other quarterback. The Titans also have a league-high 31 penalties. Both of these have caused the offense to constantly operate behind the sticks. -- Turron Davenport

On a scale of 1-10, how badly does this team need to win in Week 4? 6 -- We're three games into the Ward era, but the rookie (who ranks 31st out of 32 quarterbacks in QBR) deserves much more patience than that. But the sample size on Callahan is larger and the questions of whether he's the right coach will only get louder with each successive loss. There are no real playoff chances to worry about, but fans will rightfully want to see some growth from this Titans team in the next few games. -- Walder

Weakness that could be fixed in the first round: Ward has shown flashes, but the talent around him is the worst of any offense in the league. Drafting a true left tackle prospect early in Round 1 would be the right way to build in a draft class that isn't expected to feature a wide receiver selected in the top five picks. Tackle prospects Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Isaiah World (Oregon) and Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) are seen as early Round 1 options up-front who would pair well with 2024 first-round pick JC Latham. -- Miller

Quote that tells the tale of the season: "Trust me, there's nobody that's any more frustrated than I am with where we're at. That's the reaction you get when you don't win those games. The only thing you can do is ball your fist up and fight back to it. There's really no other way to get out of a spot like this." -- Callahan

Saints

How we got here: Pick your poison. One could choose to blame years of pushing cap charges into the future, not getting enough out of their draft picks or choosing the status quo instead of a reset after coach Sean Payton left following the 2021 season. On the field, the Saints haven't done enough to replace some of their aging veterans, don't have enough talent at the skill positions and are starting a young quarterback after Derek Carr retired in the offseason. All of that adds up to the position they're in now.

How big of a surprise is this start? The only real surprise is how uncompetitive the Saints were against the Seahawks. The Saints' special teams implosion against the Seahawks was a new wrinkle after many years of success with that unit under Darren Rizzi. Outside expectations for this season appeared to be at its lowest in years. When the schedule came out, 1-3 was the general expectation and an 0-4 start was not considered farfetched.

Could changes come soon: The Saints won't be making any coaching changes after hiring Moore this offseason. Saints GM Mickey Loomis has been in his position since 2002, and there haven't been any signs of major changes in the front office even after coach Dennis Allen was fired midseason in 2024. The only wild card is the quarterback. If the Saints continue to lose, they could eventually try to see what they have in rookie Tyler Shough.

What needs to happen to get a win in Week 4? A miracle. The Saints would have to take a giant leap forward with their offense and also either figure out how to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills' offense or have a shutdown defensive performance. They'll also have to stop committing double-digit penalties. That's a lot to ask in the span of a week. -- Katherine Terrell

On a scale of 1-10, how badly does this team need to win in Week 4? 3 -- While it would obviously be better if the Saints were to scratch out a win or two early, with a new coach and a bridge quarterback, the stakes aren't that high in New Orleans. And frankly with the team headed to Buffalo in Week 4, I wouldn't bank on that first win coming this week, either. At some point the Saints are going to need to turn to Shough so they can see what they have in him before they make what is likely to be a decision on an early first-round quarterback in the draft. -- Walder

Weakness that could be fixed in the first round: Quarterback Spencer Rattler isn't alone to blame, but if the Saints land an early selection in the first round, a quarterback will be drafted. It's easy to point to Nussmeier given his father, Doug Nussmeier, is the Saints' offensive coordinator, and he is the type of gunslinging, playmaking quarterback who could restart this offense. Years of bad cap management has left the Saints in a hole from a talent perspective, making virtually every position a possibility early in the draft, but quarterback is the biggest question mark. -- Miller

Quote that tells the tale of the season: "I feel like I got kicked in the face, literally and figuratively." -- Saints safety Justin Reid, who took a cleat to the face Sunday, describing his emotions after a blowout loss to the Seahawks.

Giants

How we got here: The Giants were offensively inept in Week 1 against Washington and again in Week 3 against the Chiefs. They somehow found a way to lose a shootout to the Cowboys in between. But it's really just an extension of last year and the year before that, when they struggled to score points (31st in 2024, 30th in 2023) and found unique and interesting ways to lose. None of it reflects well on coach Brian Daboll or general manager Joe Schoen.

How big of a surprise is this start? Not a ton. Everyone knew their schedule was brutal when it came out. The Giants were hefty underdogs in all three games so far this season. But while the general public wasn't overly optimistic (ESPN Bet had their win total at 5.5 games), inside the building, the Giants thought they would surprise people.

Could changes come soon? It took three weeks but already there's been a quarterback change. Jaxson Dart becomes the starter because the Giants couldn't justify sticking with Russell Wilson while they were losing games. Maybe they could've held off a few more weeks, but the head coach's seat is scorching. The GM's job is becoming tenuous. Losing with this frequency is unacceptable off a 3-14 season. Schoen and Daboll's futures now appear to be tied to Dart more than ever.

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Stephen A.: Jaxson Dart must look above average to save Daboll's job

Stephen A. Smith says in order for Brian Daboll's job to be saved, Jaxson Dart must give an "indication that he's being developed."

What needs to happen to get a win in Week 4? Wins are going to be hard to come by for Dart and the Giants. Four of the next six opponents are undefeated, including this week. The Giants will need to get Dart some easy throws and protect him against a tough Chargers defense while putting together a complete game to have any chance. -- Jordan Raanan

On a scale of 1-10, how badly does this team need to win in Week 4? 4 -- The decision to start Dart this week to some degree resets the clock on the panic meter. A loss to the Chargers would be quite understandable in a rookie quarterback's debut (to the Saints in Week 5 would be a different story). But every successive loss certainly means something because of the heat on Daboll and Schoen. The quarterback change would buy them a reprieve of a couple of weeks, but then they'll need to show some results. -- Walder

Weakness that could be fixed in the first round: When healthy, Andrew Thomas is a Pro Bowl-caliber left tackle, but injuries have been an issue far too often while play on the right side has been forgettable for a rotating cast of characters. Addressing the offensive line might not be exciting, but it's needed. Spencer Fano (Utah) would be a plug-and-play right tackle option who has experience on the left side as well. -- Miller

Quote that tells the tale of the season: "Look, I would be booing, too, to be honest with you, in terms of not being good enough, not scoring, not finishing. I understand that. That's the nature of it. We got to do better." -- Daboll