10 great signings, six great trades: The NFL free agency moves that Walder graded with an 'A'

Only a handful of the 60-plus NFL free agent signings and trades that I have evaluated this offseason earned coveted "A" grades. We broke out the 10 free agent signings of the 2026 offseason that I really liked -- the deals I felt best about from a team-based perspective. Then I ordered those deals, with his favorites at the top.

We went beyond free agent signings, though. I also picked six trades that I felt earned top marks from the team that did the best in each exchange.

To determine each grade, I evaluated deals based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, player value/age and the context of a team's short- and long-term outlook. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it's a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team's chance to win the Super Bowl, either in 2026 or in the future?

Check out my favorite free agent deals and analysis on all the top signings, which has been adapted from our original piece.

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Seven 'A' grades | Three 'A-' grades
Six trades we really liked

'A' grades for signings

1. Quarterback Kyler Murray signs with the Vikings

The deal: One year, $1.3 million

The Vikings pulled off an absolute coup at the game's most important position.

After J.J. McCarthy delivered only 10 games of subpar play last season with a 35.6 QBR (which would have ranked 27th had he played enough to qualify) after a rookie season lost to injury, the Vikings decided to bring in another quarterback. In all likelihood, they signed their 2026 starter.

Because Murray had $36.8 million fully guaranteed from his contract with the Cardinals, the Vikings can sign him for only $1.3 million, with Arizona picking up the rest of the tab. And on paper, Minnesota just got a huge upgrade at quarterback for the veteran minimum.

Murray is certainly at a low point in his career. A foot injury in Week 5 last season knocked him out of action and resulted in a trip to injured reserve in early November. Once he was eligible to return, the team announced Murray would not play the rest of the year.

Murray played poorly relative to the previous six seasons of his career in those five games, with a 47.2 QBR and a minus-1% completion percentage over expected. His air yards per attempt were down (from 6.7 to 5.8), but there were also some circumstances that raised the difficulty level. The Cardinals had the second-lowest success rate on designed runs in games that Murray played. That likely contributed to Murray facing light boxes 79% of the time (a high rate), and his play-action rate was down from 29% in 2024 to 20%.

But it was just five games! And Murray delivered the ninth-best QBR in the league (63.5) with a plus-2% completion percentage over expected (seventh best) and 4.9% sack rate (seventh best) the season before.

Murray's peak came in 2021, when he had a 63.2 QBR (seventh best that season), a plus-3% completion percentage over expected (third best), a 13% off-target rate (third best), 7.9 yards per attempt (fourth best) and 8% of his plays went for 2 or more EPA (second best) as he threw almost 15% of his passes 20-plus air yards downfield (third most).

There's going to be a lot of talk about reclamation projects connected to the Vikings in the wake of the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl with Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones' resurgence last season in Indianapolis. But Murray's peak was substantially higher than those two before they arrived in Minnesota. By comparison, helping Murray should feel like easy mode for Kevin O'Connell.

This is not just about rehabbing Murray's image and shipping him off a year from now for some draft picks. If it breaks right, Murray can help the Vikings be a playoff threat now. I'm not sure how good I'd call the Vikings roster these days -- especially if they trade Jonathan Greenard -- but I'm not going to doubt Minnesota's coaches. Both O'Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores have shown an ability to give their team a schematic advantage and elevate their units over the sum of their parts.

And if Murray can find his form? Then he's throwing to one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson. Between Murray, Jefferson, Jordan Addison and O'Connell, I'm pretty confident they'll be able to cook up some big plays in the passing game.

The value here is enormous. Had Murray been a true free agent with guaranteed money, what would he have made? I've always been a little higher on him than most, but I think Murray would have commanded something not far from the $36.8 million he actually was guaranteed by the Cardinals. Perhaps $30 million? So the surplus value Minnesota is getting is huge.

While the Vikings are lucky he had this guaranteed money with offsets, it's not sheer luck that he is wearing purple. Because money was not a factor, Murray had his pick of teams since no one could really offer him more financially. And O'Connell's record of quarterback development speaks for itself.

I also think Minnesota deserves credit for being open to at least the possibility of moving on from McCarthy this quickly by bringing in such a strong competitor. I don't think every organization would do that, but viewing McCarthy as a potentially sunk cost is the right way for the team to maximize its chances of finding its next quarterback. And yes, there could be a quarterback competition, so we can't rule out McCarthy just yet.

But for now, it looks like the Vikings have at least one strong starting quarterback in Murray.

2. Quarterback Malik Willis signs with the Dolphins

The deal: Three years, $67.5 million, with $45 million fully guaranteed

Sometimes all the dot-connecting before free agency does foretell a signing. Ever since the Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan -- both from the Packers -- as their coach and general manager, they have been linked to Willis given their experience with him and Miami's need at quarterback.

And Willis represents exactly what the Dolphins need: quarterbacking upside.

Let's get the negatives out of the way. Miami is betting on a tiny sample -- only three starts as a Packer. Those starts came with an elite offensive designer in Matt LaFleur. Willis didn't even throw that much in those starts, and his first two seasons in Tennessee didn't go well. Despite all that, I find Willis to be an incredibly compelling option.

His numbers were outrageous in Green Bay -- an 86.3 QBR, 9.2 yards per dropback and a plus-7% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those stats would all rank first over the past two seasons among QBR qualifiers if Willis kept up that hot pace in a bigger sample.

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Graziano: Malik Willis, Dolphins a 'perfect marriage'

Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth weigh in on the Dolphins' decision to sign Malik Willis.

And Willis also looked incredible in his Week 17 start against the Ravens, showing off his ability to throw with anticipation and on the run, change his arm angles and, of course, display his exceptional speed.

It is very hard to find a franchise quarterback in free agency, and I'm not saying that's what Willis is, or even likely to be. But if it were to happen, it'd be a lot like this: a quarterback with draft status who took time to develop, then showed enough flashes in a sample that was small enough to get him to free agency. There's a real chance here. And the Willis signing doesn't even cost that much.

At $22.5 million per year, the contract is a bargain considering what Willis could become. But even more than for most deals, the most important part of this contract is the $45 million that's fully guaranteed at signing. Because if Willis fails, that's how much Miami will have to pay. And if he succeeds, they'll end up needing to sign him to a new contract right away anyway.

Even with that guarantee, this is an incredible result relative to the alternatives. There is only one Fernando Mendoza in the draft, and the Dolphins are not going to get him. Instead of trotting out a veteran bridge quarterback, it makes sense to play for the upside. And Willis has tons of it.

3. Cornerback Riq Woolen signs with the Eagles

The deal: One year, up to $15 million

The Eagles spent much of last season trying to find a solution at their second outside corner spot. They've found their answer for 2026.

With the market seemingly cooler on Woolen than expected (at least, that's what I'm assuming based on this contract), the Eagles were there to strike with a one-year deal.

Woolen is fascinating because he is not widely considered to be among the game's top cornerbacks, but his numbers are right there with the best. Over the past four seasons, among outside corners with at least 500 coverage snaps, do you know who allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap? Woolen, at 0.7, one spot ahead of new teammate Quinyon Mitchell and two spots ahead of 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II.

And yet Woolen has been benched multiple times and shared work with Josh Jobe at times last season. Woolen has moments where it goes wrong -- such as in Week 1, when he was beaten badly by Ricky Pearsall for a 45-yard gain on the 49ers' final drive before allowing the game-winning touchdown, or when he committed an almost-cataclysmic taunting penalty in the NFC Championship Game ahead of what would have been a fourth-and-12. To that last point, Woolen's penalty rate is high (0.8% over his career, which ranks in the 80th percentile) but not disqualifying.

Ultimately, it's hard to argue against Woolen's results. Over a single season, there can be reasons a corner puts up a strong yards per coverage snap result even without playing well. For example, if they play opposite an awful corner on the other side, if their team has a good pass rush or, as with Seattle last season, the unit is incredible overall. But that has certainly not been true for Woolen for his entire time in Seattle.

The Eagles will have a formidable set of corners with Mitchell and Woolen outside and Cooper DeJean in the slot. Good luck, opposing receivers.

This deal is great for the Eagles because it fills a key need, but also because of the price. Woolen was widely viewed as being among the best outside corners in the class alongside players such as Jaylen Watson (who is getting a three-year deal at $17 million per year) and Alontae Taylor (three years at $60 million).

We don't know the final terms here, but I'm working under the assumption this contract's base value is a few million short of the $15 million maximum value. And no matter what the base value is, the fact that it's a one-year contract minimizes any risk. But Woolen could make a huge impact for the Eagles in 2026.

4. Offensive tackle Rasheed Walker signs with the Panthers

The deal: One year, up to $10 million

The price of this deal might be the most shocking of free agency thus far. Walker was widely considered the best free agent tackle this year and was expected to receive a large contract. But his market developed very slowly, so he has signed a one-year deal with a maximum value of $10 million -- meaning the base value is below that -- per NFL Network. For context, my free agency contract model projected a deal averaging $21.8 million annually for Walker. Instead, it's a short-term commitment for less than half that.

And the Panthers are the beneficiaries.

Carolina entered this offseason with a possible need at left tackle after Ikem Ekwonu suffered a patellar tendon rupture in the playoffs that put his 2026 season in question. It's also the last year of his contract. The Panthers signed Stone Forsythe as an insurance plan already in free agency, but once Walker's market fell it seemed like they felt adding him was well worth it, too.

Our win rate metrics consider Walker to be a solid player. Last season in Green Bay, he was in the 85th percentile among tackles in pass block win rate, though only 22nd percentile in run block win rate. He was in the 69th percentile and 48th percentile in those two metrics, respectively, in 2024.

Given that Dan Moore Jr. received $20.5 million per year from the Titans last year, most -- myself included -- thought Walker would walk away with more than that. Perhaps the struggles of Moore (who wasn't great last season) contributed to Walker's market being cooler than expected, a theory that ESPN's Jeremy Fowler suggested. Walker was also arrested two months ago at LaGuardia Airport in New York for allegedly trying to check in with a firearm that he had a license for in Wisconsin but not New York. Either way, teams felt differently about Walker than most on the outside thought.

But he's a heck of an addition for the Panthers on these terms. Although his run-game contributions might be far from perfect, a weak pass protector at tackle can sink a passing game. Even if this is only a one-year arrangement, Walker should be able to help keep Bryce Young upright.

5. Offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins signs with the Browns

The deal: Two years, up to $24 million

The Browns entered this offseason needing starters at all five offensive line positions. So it makes sense they ended up with the ultimate position-less offensive lineman in Jenkins, who has significant experience at center, guard and tackle.

Jenkins had been in line to make $20 million from the Packers in 2026, per OverTheCap.com, so Green Bay cut him. That worked out to the benefit of the Browns, who are scooping him up.

Jenkins played last season at center and had middling results, ranking in the 47th and 57th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively, before a fractured ankle on Nov. 10 ended his season. It was roughly a similar story for him -- in terms of win rates -- at guard the previous year.

But Jenkins has had seasons when he has ascended to a higher level of play. In 2023, his pass block win rate at guard reached the 89th percentile. In 2022, it was in the 73rd percentile, while his run block win rate reached the 87th percentile in a season in which he split time between guard and tackle and reached the Pro Bowl. And in 2021, Jenkins recorded strong numbers at tackle (84th and 88th percentiles in PBWR and RBWR).

If Jenkins, 30, can get back to his level of play from a few years ago, he will be a steal for Cleveland. At this point it's unclear where Jenkins will play, and it's possible the Browns might not even know yet. He's probably best at guard, but the Browns might need him at center because all the top free agent centers have already agreed to deals.

We don't know the exact terms, but we'll work under the assumption that the base value is a couple of million per year under the maximum $12 million per year. If Jenkins ends up an average guard or center, he will be worth it and a much better deal than his new teammate Zion Johnson (at $16.5 million per year). But Jenkins has upside for more, and that's what makes this such a strong contract for Cleveland.

6. Guard Isaac Seumalo signs with the Cardinals

The deal: Three years, $31.5 million

The Cardinals signed a win rate star at a value price. Seumalo recorded pass block win rate and run block win rates in the 98th and 95th percentiles at his position, respectively, last season as a Steeler. And it was not a unique year. In 2024, he was in the 89th percentile and 90th percentile in the two metrics, and was in the top quartile in 2023, too.

Now, I will say that when I called around for thoughts on my top 100 MVP list this year, the feedback I got on Seumalo was not as strong as the numbers indicated. Part of that was due to missed time; Seumalo missed three games with pectoral and triceps injuries, and he missed four games with a pectoral injury at the start of the 2024 season. He's also 32 years old, though I do think offensive linemen can often be a market inefficiency. They tend to still play well at this age, but teams are more hesitant to pay them.

Assuming he sticks at left guard, Seumalo would be a huge upgrade over Evan Brown, who ranked in the third percentile in run block win rate last season. Ultimately, it's hard to ignore the consistently strong metrics, and the deal is exceptional. This entire free agent guard class has been much more reasonably priced than last year's group, and even still, Seumalo's $10.5 million per year is coming in far better than Zion Johnson ($16.5 million), David Edwards ($15.25 million) or Alijah Vera-Tucker ($14 million). The Cardinals have plenty of cap room, and this is an efficient use of it.

7. Offensive tackle Braden Smith signs with the Texans

The deal: Two years, $25 million with $13.5 million guaranteed

A little over a week after agreeing to trade Tytus Howard to the Browns, the Texans found their right tackle replacement. In terms of value, the swap is a coup for Houston.

In 13 games last season, Smith recorded a pass block win rate in the 51st percentile and run block win rate in the 45th percentile. Both numbers are better than what the Texans got out of Howard.

Smith's numbers in 2024 were much worse, but he was dealing with a serious mental health matter that caused him to miss the final five games of that season.

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Schefter: Houston fortifying its O-line with Braden Smith

Adam Schefter reports that OT Braden Smith will join the Texans on a two-year, $25 million deal.

From 2018 to '23, Smith started 80 games and recorded pass block win rate and run block win rates in the 56th and 65th percentile in that span, respectively. Injuries limited him to 10 games in 2023 and he had offseason knee surgery after that season.

At $12.5 million per year in 2026 and essentially just one guaranteed year for a solid right tackle, Smith's deal looks like a bargain. And if we consider this deal in conjunction with the Howard trade? Then it looks even better. The Texans got the better player at a cheaper price and gained a fifth-round pick.

'A-' grades for signings

8. Wide receiver Mike Evans signs with the 49ers

The deal: Three years, up to $60.4 million, with $16.3 million guaranteed

After seemingly being flush with wide receiver talent not too long ago, the 49ers entered this offseason needing a wideout. They got a good one.

Evans is finally leaving Tampa Bay, heading to San Francisco to join Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy. And while we're still waiting on all the contract details, the $16.3 million guaranteed makes it seem like they got a good deal. We'll work under the assumption that's the one-year cost -- which is what matters here.

Evans, 32, is coming off an injury-shortened season that marked the first year he did not reach 1,000 receiving yards. He amassed 368 receiving yards in eight games. If he's still the same player, he has the potential to be a No. 1 X receiver for Shanahan, adding another dimension to an offense with other veteran playmakers such as Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. The move lets Ricky Pearsall be a complementary second wide receiver as he develops. Jauan Jennings is a free agent.

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Schefter: Mike Evans is veteran presence 49ers were looking for

Adam Schefter tells Pat McAfee how Mike Evans ended up signing with the 49ers.

The big question: Is Evans still the same player? In the limited sample outside of the games he missed because of collarbone and hamstring injuries, there was some drop-off. His yards per route run fell from 2.6 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2025. Against man, that latter number fell to 1.5.

His numbers fell way off across the board in ESPN's receiver scores -- his 91/74/38 open/catch/yards after catch score in 2024 dropped to a 46/38/25 in 2025. Of course, the sample was much smaller, and perhaps his injuries affected him even when he was on the field. Still, given his age, there's some reason to be worried.

But the 49ers shouldn't be that worried because of the contract and the upside Evans can deliver. Given how well he played on a per-route basis in 2024, I'd be more than willing to give him $16 million to see if he can put this offense over the top in 2026. By comparison, Evans' two-year deal with the Bucs in 2024 was, if translated to 2026 dollars, $24.2 million per year. Also, the 49ers' offense already looked pretty great last season when it was healthy and not playing the Seahawks.

The grade above is working under the assumption this is a one-year and roughly $16 million commitment. If that's right, this is an easy win for the Niners.

9. Guard David Edwards signs with the Saints

The deal: Four years, $61 million

The Saints had a hole at guard and filled it with arguably the best one to hit free agency this year -- and at a reasonable contract.

Last season in Buffalo, Edwards ranked in the 83rd percentile in pass block win rate and 86th percentile in run block win rate among guards. That is all you need to justify this contract and then some. But the fact that Edwards, who will turn 29 this month, put up similar numbers in 2024 (76th percentile in both metrics) should bolster our confidence even more.

At just over $15 million per year, I think this deal is a bit of a bargain. Compare that to last season, when Aaron Banks was in the 41st and 29th percentiles in the two win rates and scored what would be a $20.8 million per year deal in the 2026 cap environment. Or Will Fries in the 56th and 83rd percentile, respectively, over five games in 2023 earning today's equivalent of $18.9 million per year. In relation to that, Edwards' deal looks like great.

He should take over the Saints' left guard spot, which was occupied by Trevor Penning (traded midseason) and Dillon Radunz, who eventually re-signed with New Orleans. The Saints needed to improve their offensive line: They ranked 29th and 23rd in pass block and run block win rate, respectively. Edwards should help.

10. Edge rusher Boye Mafe signs with the Bengals

The deal: Three years, $60 million

With Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai walking out the door, the Bengals badly needed some pass-rush help. They got it in the form of Mafe, probably my favorite edge rusher in this year's free agent class.

Mafe has always been something of a win-rate darling. On a new team with more playing time, he has a chance to show the sacks can follow the underlying metrics (as they did in 2023, when he had nine sacks).

Though Mafe was more of a rotational player last season than he has been in the past -- he started only four games and played only 50% of the snaps -- his pass rush win rate at edge ranked in the 86th percentile. It was not a fluke, he was in the 67th percentile in his breakout 2023 season.

And he does more than rush the passer. He's a plus-defender against the run, too, finishing in the 80th percentile in run stop win rate at edge.

At $20 million per year, Mafe is coming in well behind Jaelan Phillips and Odafe Oweh, who agreed to deals for $30 million and $25 million per year, respectively. And yet if you told me a year from now that Mafe had the best year of the three, I would hardly be surprised. I think Mafe will go a long way to helping the Bengals get their defense back on track ... and on a decent contract, too.

'A' or 'A-' grades for trades

1. Bears trade WR Moore to the Bills

Bills get: WR DJ Moore, 2026 fifth-round pick
Bears get: 2026 second-round pick

Why the Bears got an A: Moore looked like a likely trade candidate heading into the offseason after he had failed to really produce in Ben Johnson's offense and appeared to show lackadaisical route-running effort on what ended up being Chicago's last offensive play of the season, a Caleb Williams overtime interception in Chicago's divisional-round loss to the Rams.

In his first season as a Bear in 2023, Moore looked like one of the NFL's best receivers. He delivered 2.5 yards per route run, which increased to an almost unbelievable 3.4 yards per route run vs. man coverage. His 85 overall score in ESPN's receiver scores was tied for fourth among all wide receivers. His play earned him an extension with Chicago. But since that season, the production has not been close to the same.

Dealing Moore was probably a pretty easy choice for Chicago. Their future in the receiving game is Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. And they get to offload a substantial amount of guaranteed money that they can redistribute to other parts of the roster that need help.

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Why Fortenbaugh says the Bears won the DJ Moore trade

Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he believes the Bears won by trading DJ Moore to the Bills.

Assuming the Bears didn't take on any additional money, I think this part is sort of remarkable: Moore's stock seems to have fallen precipitously since signing his extension that had a $27.5 million average per year. Despite that, the Bills will be taking on only a slightly cheaper contract: $90 million over four years ($22.5 million APY) though with all the guarantees this will be a one-year deal for $40 million, two years for $64.5 million or three for $73.5 million if they choose to end it early. Not only that, but the Bills gave up what ESPN's draft pick values would consider a late-third round pick to do it.

In my view, that makes this a much better result for the Bears than I would have expected heading into the offseason and makes the deal worth criticizing for the Bills.

Read about the entire trade here

2. Packers trade Edge Gary to the Cowboys

Cowboys get: Edge Rashan Gary
Packers get: 2027 fourth-round pick

Why the Packers got an A: Gary is heading to Dallas to join up with old teammate Kenny Clark and bolster the Cowboys' pass rush in the post-Micah Parsons era.

Gary was once viewed as a very promising young pass rusher. And in 2022, he looked like a player who was ready to fulfill that potential, delivering a 23% pass rush win rate at edge and 6.0 sacks in nine games before tearing his ACL. His numbers since then have never reached the same pace. And last season, despite playing with Parsons, Gary recorded just an 8% pass rush win rate at edge (18th percentile) and a 9% pressure rate (37th percentile), along with 7.5 sacks. His run stop win rate at edge was in the 60th percentile.

For the Packers, this is a boon. They might well have been prepared to cut Gary given his deal, so to find a fourth-round pick from Dallas is superb business. Edge rusher is a need now, but getting a return to not pay Gary what he was owed is a win.

Read about the entire trade here

3. Chiefs trade CB McDuffie to Rams

Rams get: CB Trent McDuffie
Chiefs get: Rams' 2026 first-round pick (No. 29), 2026 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick, 2027 third-round pick

Why the Chiefs got an A-: The surplus value going back to Kansas City is large. Draft picks are never a guarantee, but when teams hit on them they end up with players on undervalued contracts with four (or five) years of team control.

For the Chiefs, this continues a pattern of letting corners walk out the door under the assumption that they'll be able to draft and develop players who can perform under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The history here -- most notably L'Jarius Sneed's lack of success in Tennessee and the Chiefs' ability to be fine without the departed corners -- is another reason for the Rams to be wary. Any Chiefs cornerback probably comes with a drop-off risk once they leave Spagnuolo. We'll see if Jaylen Watson (who signed as a free agent with the Rams) experiences this, too.

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Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?

Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.

Either way, Kansas City must reload its roster. When this trade was made, the Chiefs were more than $6 million over the 2026 cap and are below average in terms of 2027 cap room. But they need a new infusion of talent, particularly to help an offense which has been quixotically stuck in the mud considering that Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback.

The extra draft capital will let the team get younger and add players while keeping costs low. And if the Chiefs truly believe in their ability to keep replenishing at corner, then that makes a deal like this even more rational.

Read about the entire trade here

4. Jets acquire DT Sweat from Titans for Edge Johnson

Jets get: DT T'Vondre Sweat
Titans get: Edge Jermaine Johnson

Why the Jets got an A-: For all their faults, the Jets came out of last year's trade deadline with two of the very best deals in that period. While hardly on the same scale, they kicked off the 2026 trade season with another shrewd move in swapping out Johnson for Sweat in a one-for-one swap.

Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets' run defense and provide some pass rush from the nose. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it's not bad considering where he lines up. He'll join a Jets interior group that includes Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.

Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and will cost the Jets just $1.6 and $2.1 million in each of those years, respectively. Sweat is also younger and, in my view, has a better chance to be a plus contributor than Johnson. That makes this deal well worth it for New York, especially considering the Jets will get a player with another year of team control for less money.

Read about the entire trade here

5. Lions trade RB Montgomery to Texans for G Scruggs, picks

Texans get: RB David Montgomery
Lions get: G Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick

Why the Lions got an A-: Montgomery's role has steadily decreased in recent years with the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs. In the 14 games Montgomery played in 2023, he was featured on 48% of snaps and carried the ball 219 games. By 2025, those numbers dropped to 37% and 158, respectively, despite playing in 17 games. Montgomery's receiving work was also limited because of Gibbs -- as his 24 receptions last season were nowhere close to the 54 he once caught with the Bears in 2020.

It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure a four-seven swap here since the Texans could have found comparable expected production for far less.

Scruggs is a reclamation project throw-in for Detroit. The 2023 second-round pick has bounced around the interior of Houston's offensive line. At guard, he has been in the 24th and 26th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. The results at center in 2024 were even worse, as he was third percentile in both metrics. Scruggs has one year left on his rookie deal, but the draft picks should be more than enough here for the Lions. They can use that capital to find another running back to complement Gibbs late in the draft or find a low-cost veteran in free agency. It's as easy a win as the Lions will find all offseason.

Read about the entire trade here

6. Texans trade OT Howard to the Browns

Browns get: OT Tytus Howard
Texans get: 2026 fifth-round pick

Why the Texans got an A-: This continues a recent pattern of offensive line turnover for the Texans, but I don't mind this move for them. Houston needs better blocking, both to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and generate a running game to support him. It was last in the NFL (32nd) in run block win rate, 30th in pass block win rate and 26th in yards gained before contact on running back rushes last season.

Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who have plenty of open spots along the offensive line, with both Ed Ingram and Trent Brown scheduled to be free agents (Ingram re-signed with Houston). They'll need to add offensive line help at some point and must set aside money to pay edge rusher Will Anderson Jr -- and probably Stroud, too. So getting a fifth-round pick to not pay Howard seems like good business.

Read about the entire trade here