Any Given Saturday: New college football paradigm brings chaos, huge buyouts

Any Given Sunday. That's pro football's mantra about how even the league's worst team is capable of beating its best.

The NFL's average margin of victory this season: 10.8 points.

The average margin of victory in Southeastern Conference games this season? Try 10.03.

Parity -- at least a measure of it -- has come to college football. It's a byproduct of the transfer portal, NIL and direct revenue-sharing. Anybody can be good these days ... or at least good enough for one game.

Any Given Saturday.

Ancient Heismans in a trophy case and conference championship banners on the wall won't hurt a program's recruiting, but they sure don't matter as much as they used to. This is about transactions, not tradition. The talent has spread.

In the top 10, the Associated Press poll features Indiana (2), Georgia Tech (7) and Vanderbilt (10).

Meanwhile, Penn State, Florida, Arkansas and UCLA have each already fired their coach this season. The mood also isn't great at Florida State, Auburn, LSU or Wisconsin. There are even grumbles at 3-3 Clemson (among many others).

College football has never been this competitive, this wild -- or this interesting. The fun isn't being hoarded by a few super powers. The good teams aren't as good and the bad teams aren't as bad. The chase for the playoff now runs dozens of teams deep. Seasons can swing on a dime.

Two Saturdays ago, Arizona State lost to Utah by 32 points. Last Saturday, a sold-out stadium of Sun Devils stormed the field to celebrate beating then-No. 7 Texas Tech 26-22 and keeping ASU's playoff hopes alive.

It's fantastic.

It also has left college football in a strange place, caught between two eras.

In an earlier era, major programs that have invested heavily for generations are expected to beat the teams they have always beaten. Losses to non-name brands have traditionally been a sign of a failed operation with no hope for the future.

For example, two weeks ago Penn State should have handled a 3-2 Northwestern team the way the Nittany Lions once defeated 34 consecutive unranked opponents under James Franklin.

But we've entered a new day when just about any team can put together a strong roster on the fly. Even if those schools don't surge up the polls as Indiana and others have, they can at least be competitive enough to beat you.

A new, active dollar, with money sent directly to players (or invested in top-line scouting) is more valuable than the old, passive dollar that paid for fancy locker rooms.

The result: Northwestern 22, Penn State 21. One of the difference-makers for Northwestern wasn't a former five-star recruit, but Griffin Wilde, who caught seven passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. He arrived this season as a transfer ... from South Dakota State.

Compounding everything is that programs of all sizes have asked their boosters to fund rosters, and that brings new expectations. It's one thing to absorb a perceived bad loss when you've paid for a ticket to the game. It's another when you're helping to pay the quarterback. Rolled heads are demanded, ASAP.

Hence, Penn State fired Franklin despite his 104-45 record at the school.

Was Franklin's dismissal justified? Or Billy Napier at Florida, or Sam Pittman at Arkansas, or Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State, or so on and so on thus far?

Sure. You get paid like these guys, you have to deliver. High salaries, high stakes. There is no such thing as "fair."

Part of what makes college football great is that it is hardwired to reject patience and perspective, even if patient might be the exact thing programs need to be. No one was calling for Andy Reid's job in Kansas City when the Chiefs started 0-2.

Yet here in late October, almost anyone not still in the playoff chase is thinking about canning their coach. Even a few who clearly can win the national title aren't far removed from such discussions -- do we have to fire up "The Paul Finebaum Show" from last month after Alabama lost to Florida State?

Regime change costs a fortune, yet it happens anyway. Penn State is on the hook for as much as $49 million for discarding Franklin. If Florida State cuts Mike Norvell, it owes $50 million-plus. He led the Seminoles to a 13-0 regular season in 2023. They are 5-15 since. Norvell is 44 years old. The last time Florida State won an ACC game, he was 42.

Castles crumble that fast these days.

Not everyone can win, but everyone thinks they should.

Not only are there not enough great coaches out there, and no one, in this system, can even say what makes a great coach. Old attributes such as recruiting charm or multiyear program development matter less. In-game strategy and talent identification matters more.

The margins are thin. The buyouts are huge. Half the sport is upside down.

Welcome to the chaos. Enjoy the show.