Can No. 1 Sabalenka be defeated? Amanda Anisimova may find a way

WIMBLEDON, England -- Amanda Anisimova collapsed to the ground on her knees. Her body slumped over, with her face directly on the grass of No. 1 Court. She stayed there for a brief moment before getting up and wiping away tears or sweat -- either would have been appropriate -- from her face as she smiled.

It had been six long years and a mental health break since she had advanced to her first, and last, major final, but after her hard-fought 6-1, 7-6 (9) victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova on Tuesday, she had done it again.

The 23-year-old American couldn't hide her enthusiasm hours later when speaking to reporters.

"I feel like everything has been kind of clicking for me, and I've been feeling more and more confident with each tournament I've played this year," Anisimova, the No. 13 seed, said. "So I feel like my confidence is pretty high. On top of that, I'm just enjoying every moment."

Her victory marked a stark contrast to that of her opponent in Thursday's semifinal.

Shortly before Anisimova had clinched her spot, Aryna Sabalenka had come back to defeat Laura Siegemund on Centre Court 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 in just under three hours. Twenty-seven-year-old Sabalenka, the tournament's top seed, has reached four consecutive major semifinals and has advanced to the round in 10 of her past 11 Grand Slam tournaments. She has a staggering 12-1 career record in quarterfinals -- the second-best mark among women in the Open era, behind only Chris Evert.

On paper, the match between Anisimova and Sabalenka might seem to be a lopsided, David vs. Goliath affair, but in actuality it could be a clash for the ages between two well-matched and big-hitting opponents.

Here's everything you need to know entering the semifinal, and what to expect from both players.

Familiar foes

Sure, Sabalenka has three major titles and has been the world No. 1 since October, but it's actually Anisimova who leads their series. (We told you to not be fooled by their résumés, right?) In eight career meetings, Anisimova has won five times, including their first two major encounters.

Since the start of the 2024 season, and Anisimova's comeback, Sabalenka has emerged victorious during two of their three matches, most recently in the fourth round at the French Open last month. Three of their head-to-head showings have gone to a deciding set, and Sabalenka and Anisimova used the word "tough" when describing what it will be like to face each other.

Sabalenka predicted it would be "very aggressive tennis" and called their previous matches "battles."

Anisimova seemed to agree, and was excited for the opportunity yet again, on one of the sport's biggest stages.

"I know she's going to be playing some amazing tennis," Anisimova added during her news conference Tuesday. "I mean, there's nobody better that I can play other than her. I'm really looking forward to the experience. I mean, I'm going to be playing against a No. 1 in a semifinal of Wimbledon, so it's going to be really special."

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Sabalenka digs deep to reach Wimbledon semifinals

Aryna Sabalenka fights back against Laura Siegemund to win in three sets and reach the Wimbledon semifinals..

Their last meeting

During their showdown in Paris last month, Sabalenka entered the match as the favorite, but Anisimova reminded everyone of why she had reached the Roland Garros semis as a teenager, and just how good she was on clay.

Sabalenka opened the round of 16 outing by jumping to a 4-1 lead and looking as if she was going to cruise to victory. But Anisimova refused to back down. She became increasingly aggressive and raised her level to even it at 5-all. However, Sabalenka relied heavily on her strong serve -- notching three aces in a single game late in the set and earning 11 overall -- to clinch the opener in 50 minutes.

While Anisimova matched Sabalenka's power for much of the match, she lacked Sabalenka's (improved) variety and versatility. Anisimova saved six match points on serve but Sabalenka eventually won 7-5, 6-3. Sabalenka later told reporters in Paris she knew she had to "change the rhythm against her" to be successful and explained that was a key component to her strategy going in.

But grass is a different surface, and the two have never played against one another on it. Sabalenka believes that could present a different challenge.

"I definitely think this surface suits her game really well," Sabalenka said Tuesday. "That's why she's playing so well so far. She's serving well. She's hitting quite clean and heavy shots."

Sabalenka's quest for major title No. 4

No one has been more consistent on tour over the past several seasons than Sabalenka. In addition to her record at Slams, her monthslong hold on the world's top ranking (she currently has a 4,751-point lead in the live rankings with a chance to further it more by tournament's end) and seven titles since the start of 2024, Sabalenka has also reached the final at the past three majors.

"[She] is No. 1 in the world for a reason," said Emma Raducanu after Sabalenka defeated her in the third round.

But while Sabalenka won the US Open in September, she lost with the trophy on the line at the Australian Open (where she was the two-time defending champion) and at the French Open. Following her devastating three-set loss to Coco Gauff in Paris, Sabalenka said she learned from the experience and even referenced it Tuesday during her match against Siegemund.

"Honestly, I think there's a big possibility that I would have lost this match if I didn't learn that lesson at the French Open," Sabalenka said. "In some moments I keep reminding myself, 'Come on, it's the quarterfinal of Wimbledon, you cannot give up, you cannot let the emotions just take over you and lose another match.'

"I was just reminding myself that it's my dream, why would I give up so easily, so I have to keep fighting. Basically that's it. I was keep telling myself that, and I was willing to, yeah, win points, to push myself and to get those tough points."

Wimbledon remains the only major in which Sabalenka has yet to reach the final, and it's clear it would mean a lot to her, especially after her setbacks in Melbourne and Paris.

Anisimova's rise back to the top

Anisimova's career was filled with the highest of highs and the lowest of lows during her early years on tour. After a stellar junior career, in which she won the 2017 girl's title at the US Open, Anisimova won her first WTA title and reached the semifinals at Roland Garros as a 17-year-old in 2019 but withdrew from the US Open that year after the death of her father, who was also her longtime coach.

There were other successes -- including the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2022 and a 250-level title in Melbourne that same year -- but she called tennis "unbearable" in May 2023 when announcing an indefinite break from the sport.

"I've really been struggling with my mental health and burnout since the summer of 2022," Anisimova, then ranked No. 46, wrote on social media. "... At this point my priority is my mental well-being and taking a break for some time. I've worked as hard as I could to push through it."

After several months away, focusing on other interests and traveling with friends, Anisimova returned. She reached the fourth round at the Australian Open in her second tournament back, losing to Sabalenka. Because her ranking had plummeted outside of the top 400 during her absence, she played somewhat sparingly in her first few months back and even needed to play in the qualifying draw at Wimbledon. She failed to make the main draw after losing in the third round of qualifying.

But this season, Anisimova has rediscovered, or even superseded, her previous form. She won the biggest title of her career at the 1000-level Qatar Open in February and reached her first grass final at Queen's Club last month. She called her comeback a "bit of a roller coaster" Tuesday but credited her break, and everything she has been through, for getting her to where she is now.

"I feel like that [break] really served me, definitely," Anisimova said. "Coming out of that break, it wasn't all upward. There were definitely some ups and downs coming out of it and getting used to the lifestyle and just being an athlete at this level. It's not easy.

"I definitely had to find my way back, really work on the fitness side, and definitely get in my hours of training. Yeah, I mean, it's been a journey. I feel like since last summer, it's really trended upwards for me. I finally found my game and my confidence."

After her quarterfinal win, Anisimova will make her top 10 debut next week. If she beats Sabalenka and advances to her first Slam final, she will likely rise to No. 7. She could climb as high as No. 5 if she were to win the title.

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Emotional Anisimova defeats Pavlyuchenkova to reach Wimbledon semis

Amanda Anisimova gets emotional after a hard-fought straight-sets victory over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to reach the Wimbledon semifinals for the second time.

Who could be waiting in the final

During the second day of quarterfinal action Wednesday, No. 8 seed and five-time major champion Iga Swiatek defeated No. 19 Liudmila Samsonova 6-2, 7-5, and the resurgent and unseeded Belinda Bencic bested No. 7 seed Mirra Andreeva 7-6(3) 7-6(2).

Sabalenka and Swiatek have been two of the best on tour in recent years and have met in many memorable finals, but they have never played in a major final. During the French Open, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek, the reigning three-time champion, in the semifinals 7-6 (1), 4-6, 6-0. A long-awaited Slam final between the two -- at perhaps the unlikeliest of tournaments -- would be compelling.

Of course, an Anisimova-Bencic final -- a showdown between two recently returned players looking for their first major title -- could be fascinating. Or, for that matter, could be any combination of finalists.

One thing is for certain: We'll have a new, first-time Wimbledon champion Saturday.