Don't be surprised if ... Claxton leads the Nets in fantasy points

Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

Don't be surprised if ... Utah Jazz C Jusuf Nurkic averages 10 RPG this season

There was unfortunate breaking news on Wednesday, as the Jazz announced starting C Walker Kessler needs surgery for a torn labrum and his season is over after five games. Kessler is a big-time rebounder and shot blocker, and his absence really hurts in roto/categories formats, where it is so hard to find someone that does each of those things. Kessler was scoring 14.4 PPG (easily a career high), getting steals and even his awful free throw percentage was no longer a problem, as he was at 70%.

Nurkic is just about the only center left on the team, and while we should note this team is OK with tanking again and may not care if they have a reasonable center, this is an experienced 7-footer who has averaged double-digit rebounds in four prior seasons, including the recent 2023-24 campaign with the Suns. What happened last season? His production cratered as he earned fewer minutes in a reserve role, one he was unaccustomed to serving. Now 31, Nurkic remains a big body and he can still rebound. He isn't shooting well, isn't trying to block shots, but he should rebound while he is healthy.

Meanwhile, count me in as someone who wants to see what college and G League star C Oscar Tshiebwe could do with reasonable NBA opportunity and minutes. Tshiebwe averaged 15.1 RPG and 13.7 RPG his two seasons at Kentucky, winning myriad awards, but he went undrafted by the NBA because he is only 6-foot-8. He averaged 17.1 PPG and a league record 19 RPG for the Utah Jazz G League team, the Salt Lake City Stars last season. Why not give him a chance? I doubt Nurkic can average a double-double in the NBA at this point. Could Tshiebwe? Let's find out!

Don't be surprised if ... Philadelphia 76ers SG Quentin Grimes wins 6th Man of the Year award

After a somewhat tumultuous summer due to his unique contract status as a restricted free agent, Grimes is off to a tremendous start with the 76ers, entering Wednesday averaging 17 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5 RPG and 1.3 SPG, all career highs. What is most shocking is the 31.6 MPG. Grimes comes off the bench and still he ranks No. 65 in minutes per game, while the next reserve in minutes is Miami Heat SF/SG Jaime Jaquez Jr. at 29.4 MPG. Last season's top sixth man, Boston Celtics PG Payton Pritchard, averaged 14.3 PPG in 28.4 MPG.

The surprising 76ers, lacking SF/PF Paul George (knee) and with C Joel Embiid (knee) available only some of the time, feature three guards on the court much of the time. When they hit shots, they can compete. So far, they are competing.

ESPN BET has Grimes with the fourth-best odds for the sixth man award at +1200, which is reasonable because Oklahoma City Thunder PG Ajay Mitchell, Portland Trail Blazers PF Jerami Grant and Jaquez Jr. are also playing well. (My preseason pick was Minnesota Timberwolves C/PF Naz Reid, who is sixth in odds.) Mitchell has similar numbers to Grimes, but for the best team in the sport. Grant scores, but he does little else (so what else is new?). Jacquez rebounds and passes, but he does not hit 3-pointers and probably cannot shoot 60.3% from the field for long.

Grimes remains available in more than 50% of ESPN standard leagues. If you are holding off on adding him because you fear Paul George will eat into his minutes and production, well, check out how many games George played last season (41). With Grimes and McCain supporting star PG/SG Tyrese Maxey and rookie SG VJ Edgecombe, this is the best guard rotation in the league. Do not expect Edgecombe to continue averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game, but Grimes is a safer bet.

Don't be surprised if ... Brooklyn Nets C Nic Claxton leads his team in fantasy points

Staying in the Atlantic Division, things are not going so well with the Nets, which sought their first victory on Wednesday at Indiana. What has stood out to me, at least statistically for fantasy purposes, is how Claxton, who averaged 2.2 APG last season (and that was a career high!), is leading the Nets at 3.4 APG this season. Claxton is scoring more, but rebounding and blocking less, and he has 12 assists over the past two games. This is odd, especially for a 6-foot-11 player that doesn't exactly possess Nikola Jokic or Domantas Sabonis passing skills.

This is also not likely to continue, but it doesn't mean Claxton investors should panic. The aggressiveness at the offensive end (scoring) may continue, because Claxton always had it in him to be more of an offensive presence. Now that the team is so stripped down, tanking for BYU F AJ Dybantsa or another top prospect, he is taking more shots and getting to the foul line at a career rate as well. He is shooting a sad 57% from the line, but still, the Nets and fantasy managers want more overall impact. Why can't Claxton average 16 PPG, 8 RPG and better than 3 APG? That works!

The reason why Claxton is getting these assists is because nobody else is. All these rookies at point guard are struggling, including lottery pick Egor Demin (also from BYU), who I invested in multiple times, and am trying to be patient. We shall see. SG/SF Cam Thomas is again scoring 24 PPG, but he has stopped doing everything else (not that he was doing much else before). How can anyone averaging 31.6 MPG fall short of 2 RPG? SF/PF Michael Porter Jr. is scoring and rebounding (8 RPG), though he has reached 20 points in only two games. He may average like 17-18 PPG and 6.5 RPG this season, which is fine but still underwhelming, I guess. The door is open for Claxton, still available in 32% of ESPN standard leagues, to have his career season.

Don't be surprised if ... New Orleans Pelicans SG/SF Trey Murphy III blossoms into a top 50 fantasy option

The Pelicans are right there with the Nets and Washington Wizards at the bottom of the league, already looking ahead to the NBA lottery. In what has become an unfortunate annual theme, PF Zion Williamson (hamstring) is already hurt, and someone must pick up the scoring slack. Volume shooter SG/PG Jordan Poole isn't shooting much or shooting well. SG/PG Dejounte Murray (Achilles) may return in January, or he may not. Williamson managed to perform in 30 games last season. None of this stopped overly optimistic fantasy investors from making Williamson a fourth-round pick in ADP. Not good.

Regardless, Murphy's overall numbers entering Wednesday didn't shine, but he started slowly, including a pair of games against the Nuggets and Celtics in which he scored seven points in each, and shot a combined 4-for-19 from the field and 1-of-9 on 3-pointers. That's not Murphy, who averaged 21.2 PPG last season, while finishing 51st in 3-pointers, despite participating in only 53 games. He hit 5-of-10 3-pointers in each of the next three games, The minutes are there, and the shots will be there. He should be averaging 25 PPG on this team. Perhaps that starts soon.

Murphy isn't the most durable player himself, averaging just fewer than 65 games over his first four seasons, but if he can stay on the court, he should sail past 200 3-pointers and perhaps rank among the top 10 in total 3-pointers. That certainly would aid a fantasy team.