Five head-to-head matchups that could impact the Super Bowl: All eyes on JSN vs. Gonzalez?

Two weeks is a long, long time to game-plan an NFL game. It's also a long time to think about the game plan when you're on the outside looking in.

I've had (almost) two weeks to think about the matchups that will define Super Bowl LX. How will the Patriots try to cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba? How might the Seahawks attempt to block Milton Williams? But I've also had time to wonder whether individual matchups really do define Super Bowls. Are these big game-plan-heavy days really decided by one-on-one showdowns -- even as important as those individual players might be to their teams' success?

Probably not. From the outside looking in, we like to distill the unbelievably complex NFL discussions into easily digestible matchups. Will Christian Gonzalez cover Smith-Njigba perfectly for 100% of their matchups? Nope. So will Smith-Njigba win 100% of the routes? Nope. The Patriots are hoping to get it to 60-40 and then have that other 40% won by the pass rush or dumb luck (or just limited to shorter routes). The Seahawks, meanwhile, are hoping for their own 60-40, and to win the remaining 40% with AJ Barner, a scramble or some more dumb luck.

When we talk matchups in the NFL, we are rarely talking about game-winning individuals. Instead, we're talking about feathers on a scale. Winning these matchups creates small tips in one direction. The point isn't that a single matchup wins the whole game, but rather that every matchup can contribute to the outcome.

Of course, I don't think you'd read "84 matchups that could define the Super Bowl." So I whittled it down to five -- the five heaviest feathers on the scale that will decide Seahawks-Patriots. And I even predicted which way that scale will tip at the bottom.

Jump to:
Gonzalez vs. Smith-Njigba
Williams vs. Bradford
McDaniels vs. Witherspoon
Campbell vs. Lawrence
Darnold vs. ... Darnold

Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez vs. Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

This is the one. Achilles vs. Hector. Zuko vs. Azula. Best on best.

The list of cornerbacks in the NFL better than Gonzalez is as short as it is debatable. Pat Surtain II, Derek Stingley Jr., Quinyon Mitchell and Denzel Ward are the only four names I'd entertain -- and none of them clear him comfortably. Only three corners had a better expected points added (EPA) on targets in man coverage than Gonzalez did this season; only five gave up fewer yards per target (4.7).

And while it's hard to call Smith-Njigba the clear best receiver in football, when Puka Nacua, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are all equally capable of dominating any given Sunday, he did have the best season of that bunch. He finished with 119 catches, 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns. And Smith-Njigba has only two games this season with fewer than 70 yards, including the playoffs -- a 41-6 win over the 49ers and a 26-0 win over the Vikings. He simply wasn't needed in either contest.

With that said, we can still turn to that Vikings game to investigate how coordinator Brian Flores -- the league's preeminent defensive mind save for Mike Macdonald -- dealt with Smith-Njigba. Since Minnesota lacked a star corner like Gonzalez, Flores regularly got a safety on top of JSN, even when the Seahawks isolated him as the lone receiver in a 4x1 set.

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When the Seahawks tried to hide Smith-Njigba in the slot -- making it harder to press him and compress his routes into the sideline -- the Vikings dropped zone defenders off the line of scrimmage and directly into windows of the quick-breaking routes on which JSN typically feasts. This forced Sam Darnold to hold the ball for an extra beat and created opportunities for the Vikings' pass rush.

It's important to note that while Smith-Njigba was primarily a slot receiver when he first joined the Seahawks, he is no longer limited. Across the regular season and playoffs, 24% of his routes and 20% of his targets have come from slot alignments. For context, Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson were in the slot more often. If the Patriots want to get Gonzalez matched up on Smith-Njigba, they won't need to constantly travel him inside.

Whether or not Gonzalez travels with him is an interesting question. In his first two seasons with the Patriots -- when the defense played more man coverage -- Gonzalez regularly followed the opponent's best WR (not to the slot but on the outside). This season, as the Patriots have run more zone and enjoyed a strong CB2 in Carlton Davis III, Gonzalez has primarily stayed to one side of the field, lining up as the right cornerback on 72% of snaps. The Patriots did travel him with specific receivers, though. In Week 10 against the Buccaneers, Gonzalez followed Emeka Egbuka across the field. On a less frequent basis, he followed Tee Higgins against the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase didn't play) and Jerry Jeudy against the Browns.

As then-49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh remarked a few weeks ago when asked about potentially shadowing Smith-Njigba with one of San Francisco's corners, it's a harder thing to achieve within the defensive structure than one might think. But the Patriots naturally play more man coverage than the 49ers, and they've had two weeks to prepare, not one.

The fact that the Patriots have irregularly asked Gonzalez to mirror top receivers is a fun pregame wrinkle. I imagine we'll see Gonzalez travel with Smith-Njigba some, but it doesn't need to be the lynchpin of the Patriots' game plan. Davis is an apt CB2 and has the length and press technique that can give Smith-Njigba (relative) struggles at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots can also follow the Vikings' approach and get a safety atop JSN and trust that Gonzalez can run with Rashid Shaheed down the field (he's one of the few corners who can).

While Davis lives and dies with the sort of physicality that can fluster Smith-Njigba, Gonzalez -- who has similar length -- prefers a more patient style of play. Still, he is a complete corner and has at times deployed more aggressive press approaches when the situation calls for it. In Week 9 against the Falcons, Gonzalez went pound for pound with one of the NFL's most physically dominant wideouts in Drake London. This was another game in which Gonzalez travelled, and he allowed only three receptions to London across seven targets with two pass breakups to boot.

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Smith-Njigba is completely different from London physically and stylistically. He wins in space and with quickness, and he is extremely tough to punch at the line. If Gonzalez is asked to play him off the line of scrimmage, or he is placed in press without a safety shaded to his side, he's going to lose more reps to Smith-Njigba than the Patriots can afford.

To undress the Patriots' defensive approach against their star receiver, expect to see Smith-Njigba sent in motion often in this game -- doubly so on the first few series. If Gonzalez is shadowing him, the Seahawks will motion JSN into the slot to force nickel corner Marcus Jones to endure the one-on-one matchup. Jones is a great slot corner, but the Pats will need to dial up true double-teams to handle Smith-Njigba if he suddenly becomes a true slot receiver in this game.

The lean in this matchup goes to Smith-Njigba, who is on the sort of heater that doesn't get stopped by any one mere mortal. The Patriots will pitch plenty of coverage changeups his way, but there's only so much you can do on the chalkboard against an offense that uses a receiver like JSN so creatively -- just ask the Rams, who failed to cover him on a corner route from the backfield in their loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.

The bright spot for New England: Gonzalez can't single-handedly erase Smith-Njigba, but if he can hold his own at the line of scrimmage, he can force Darnold to take longer dropbacks and target other receivers. That'd be a win for the Patriots' defense as a whole.

Patriots DT Milton Williams vs. Seahawks G Anthony Bradford

The greatest weakness of the Seahawks' offense from a personnel perspective is Bradford, the right guard. Over two postseason games, Bradford has given up a whopping 15.3% pressure rate, according to NFL Next Gen stats. In particular, the Rams exploited Bradford with blitzes, stunts and rushes straight up the middle.

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During the regular season, Bradford recovered from a terrible first half and played better for much of the winter. He gave up seven quick pressures in the first six games of the season (bad), then only one over the next eight games (good). But he has now surrendered eight over the final six games (bad).

This is a particularly big deal against the Patriots. Only two players in the NFL have a pressure rate above 13% when rushing over the guard, and they just happen to be teammates: Williams and Christian Barmore, the defensive tackle duo for the Patriots.

More than any other, this matchup has the chance to completely turn this game on its head. And that's true even beyond Bradford. First-year starting center Jalen Sundell and rookie left guard Grey Zabel have both played great ball, but this is the league's most disruptive pass-rushing duo at defensive tackle.

Much of Seattle's approach in the passing game is built on insulating its offensive line (and quarterback) from clear pass rush situations. Seattle has the highest called run rate in the league, and even after adjusting for game script, it is still remarkably more run-heavy than average. To accompany that heavy run rate, Seattle passes from under center (32% of the time, ninth in the NFL) and rolls Darnold out often (13% of his dropbacks, fourth most). All told, only 62% of Darnold's dropbacks this season have been straight from the shotgun with no play-action fake -- 42nd of 45 qualifying quarterbacks.

These offense machinations help slow opponent pass rushes. If Bradford and the rest of Seattle's interior are getting worked by the Patriots' defensive tackle duo, expect to see the Seahawks roll Darnold out a ton, forcing Williams and Barmore to play run-and-chase (and tiring out their legs). I would not be surprised to see the Seahawks go to the no-huddle when one of Williams or Barmore is off the field. If they can trap nose tackle Khyiris Tonga on the field, they can pass on early downs more comfortably. And they can try to avoid third-and-longs altogether with the quick passing game and screens as a replacement for their under-center handoffs.

But there is an inevitability to pass rushes. Every team has to drop back on third-and-long eventually. One of the key components of the Williams vs. Bradford matchup isn't how often Williams will get pressure, but rather what will happen when he does.

The Seahawks, despite all of their tremendous team success, turn the ball over at an worryingly high rate. During the regular season, 14.1% of their drives ended with a turnover -- only the Vikings gave the ball away at a higher rate. It isn't impossible to win a Super Bowl at this rate -- the 2023 Chiefs turned the ball over on 14.5% of their drives that season -- but it's extremely challenging.

Darnold is a turnover-prone quarterback. He has had the best season of his career, has improved dramatically and deserves all the flowers in the world. But he remains turnover prone. Next Gen Stats has him with a 7.2% turnover-worthy play rate when pressured -- the worst rate for all starting quarterbacks this season -- and he loses the ball both ways. He has six interceptions and five lost fumbles.

It is imperative that Darnold takes sacks in this game. If quick pressure is coming, just tuck the ball and take the loss. The defense has largely won Seattle's games this season. In the Super Bowl, dance with the one that brought you and punt the football away. Seattle gave up only 28 touchdown drives this season, and the average starting field position on those drives was the 41-yard line. Short of the best game of Drake Maye's life, this matchup only becomes a shootout if Seattle gives New England the short fields necessary to pour on quick points.

Conversely, the plan in the Patriots' defensive line room is simple: We've seen Darnold panic under pressure before, and we can make him do it again. They just elicited the worst C.J. Stroud game I've ever seen in the divisional round with much of the same approach. Both by blitzing and by rushing four, the Patriots manufactured early pressures and feasted on an aggressive quarterback straining to make too many plays.

The blitz aspect is interesting, as the Patriots have sent more pressure lately, including 40% of opponent dropbacks since their Week 14 bye (compared to 27% of dropbacks before it). It's scary to send extra bodies against the Seahawks, as Smith-Njigba, Shaheed and Kenneth Walker III all have the tackle-breaking ability to expose that additional yards after contact space downfield. But if the Seahawks walk out with a heavy dose of under-center dropbacks and play-action fakes -- and especially if they roll out Darnold to hide him from that defensive tackle duo -- expect to see the Patriots crank up their blitzes from the secondary to catch Darnold unaware.

Here's a great example: a thunderous hit from Rams safety Kamren Kinchens, who came in unblocked while Darnold's back was turned on a play-action fake. This is a huge win for the Rams defense, but Darnold also did well to protect the football from what was essentially a blindside strike.

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Two defenses have blitzed Darnold ambitiously in recent games -- the Vikings in Week 13 (63% of dropbacks) and the Panthers in Week 17 (54.8% of dropbacks). These are also two of Darnold's worst games this season. And on both films, you see similar DB blitzes that catch Darnold flatfooted after under-center play-action fakes.

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There are accordingly two modes with which the Patriots can get pressure. With two weeks of preparation, expect coach Mike Vrabel, defensive playcaller Zak Kuhr and the rest of the staff to key in on formational tendencies and get good blitz calls into the Seahawks' play-action series. But when they come with four, they also have a lopsided matchup with whomever they get over the right guard. The Patriots' path to winning this game is narrower than the Seahawks' and it is almost impossibly small if they don't get a huge amount of pressure on Darnold -- and generate turnovers with that pressure.

But because the Pats can get home in a variety of ways, it will be hard for Seattle coordinator Klint Kubiak to game-plan Darnold out of tricky spots. The key is to minimize the damage on pressured dropbacks. Throwaways and even some sacks can be positive plays for the Seahawks' offense in a game like this.

Patriots OC Josh McDaniels vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon

There are two players in the league who have played at least 25% of their snaps at right cornerback, at least 25% of their snaps at left cornerback and at least 25% of their snaps at slot cornerback. Witherspoon is one of them (Amik Robertson is the other).

He also has been doing this since he entered the league. Since the 2023 season, Spoon has played over 40% of his snaps at wide corner and over 40% of his snaps at slot corner. He is one of only four players for whom this is true, and the other three are backups (Cameron Mitchell, Eli Ricks and DJ James).

It's one thing to have positional versatility. It's another to be excellent in both spots. Flipping from the slot to the outside is much harder than it appears at first blush. Nickel defenders must be legitimately impactful tacklers against the run, and outside corners must be capable of sticking in man coverage downfield against the league's top receivers. So the overlap in that Venn diagram is extremely small. Of the 14 players with at least 100 coverage snaps both inside and out this season, only two have given up fewer than 1.0 yards per coverage snap at both spots: Witherspoon and Chargers standout Tarheeb Still.

It's Witherspoon's versatility that allows the Seahawks to play Nick Emmanwori as the big nickel safety in their preferred defensive personnel of five DBs. If Witherspoon couldn't succeed as an outside corner, the Seahawks would play Emmanwori only in subpackages (because they're never taking Spoon off the field) or at a more traditional safety alignment (which would strain his coverage skills). Unlike most teams, which have dedicated outside CBs and rotate in various slot corners and box safeties based on the opposing offensive personnel, the Seahawks keep Emmanwori and Witherspoon on the field, rotating their outside corners (Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen) according to matchup.

This inside-out personnel carousel reflects Macdonald's inside-out defensive philosophy as a whole. The strength of the defensive line is the defensive tackle room; the strengths of the secondary are the slot corner and the box safety. This rotation has an additional, cheerful side effect of creating a dime personnel grouping (six DBs) for Seattle to deploy. Since Week 9 -- when Emmanwori (early-season ankle sprain) and Witherspoon (bruised MCL) were both back from injuries -- the Seahawks have played 25% dime, the third-highest rate in the league, per Next Gen Stats.

There is no such thing as a dime defense without a coverage liability on the field. I cannot remember a team fielding its sixth defensive back and feeling confident with that guy in coverage. Think about the sixth defensive back on your favorite team right now. How great do you feel about that player?

The Seahawks feel amazing about him. It's Jobe or Woolen, depending on the matchup, and both of them are top 21 in yards per coverage snap allowed. As a unit, the Seahawks gave up 5.3 yards per pass attempt on the season in dime, second only to the 2020 Rams over the past decade for pass defenses with six defensive backs on the field.

When the Seahawks are in dime, Spoon will play over the slot. They like dime on clear passing downs (third-and-long) or against 11 personnel sets. Against heavier sets on all down-and-distances, Seattle prefers to play out of nickel, which will kick Witherspoon outside.

So where does McDaniels want him? Witherspoon is gettable in coverage, especially downfield, as the Rams showed with the 136 passing yards they put on him in the conference championship round. He is not big and is very aggressive downhill, so he can lose downfield leverage and struggle to reconnect to the catch point.

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If the Patriots slide speed into the slot by fielding DeMario Douglas as their third receiver, they can take some shots downfield on Spoon. But Douglas is decisively not Puka Nacua or Davante Adams. Even if the theory is sound, Witherspoon might just win on talent alone.

Perhaps Kayshon Boutte is a better option. Over 30% of Boutte's receptions this season have gone for 20-plus yards, fourth among all receivers. He is Maye's primary downfield playmaker and has the size advantage on Witherspoon. But Boutte doesn't really play the slot, which means Witherspoon would get to play him into the boundary, where he has been dominant this season (0.5 yards per coverage snap allowed, third best among all cornerbacks).

There's also the matter of running the football. Witherspoon is the platonic ideal for willing run defense at defensive back. He slips blocks and takes them head on. He makes tackles with stopping power and pursuit plays into the boundary. He plays with toughness and alacrity.

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If McDaniels wants to spread out the Seahawks and try to run into the light boxes Mike Macdonald will afford him, he'll encounter the hellion that is Witherspoon in the slot -- not the sort of player to be blocked by a Stefon Diggs or even a Mack Hollins. McDaniels will instead need to go to his heavier personnel to run the ball -- including his jumbo package. But the heavier the set, the less dangerous the Patriots' passing attack becomes. Will the juice be worth the squeeze?

I don't know the answer here. The real solution might be somewhere in the trickle down. Woolen is the Seahawks' field corner -- he lines up on the wider side of the formation -- and Jobe is the Seahawks' boundary corner. So Jobe is the one to attack with jump balls and size. If there is a matchup to manufacture, it's getting six defensive backs on the field, then using formations to force the Seahawks into sticking Jobe on the boundary against Boutte. But I'd wager New England would get one, maybe two cracks at that before Macdonald finds a way to get Woolen on Boutte or just zones off the issue entirely.

Witherspoon is a playmaker. Seattle wants him as close to the ball and to the action as possible. In McDaniels' ideal world, he's never targeted once, and rushes or screens that go his direction are few and far between. Emmanwori's performance against the Rams was the story of the week and his emergence has been a story of the season. But in my eyes, the offensive game-planning against the Seahawks begins with No. 21.

Patriots OT Will Campbell vs. Seahawks DE DeMarcus Lawrence

Playing left tackle is not easy, and it's doubly tough on rookies. Harder still facing a stretch against the Chargers (Khalil Mack and Odafe Oweh), Texans (Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter) and Broncos (Nik Bonitto, Nik Bonitto and Nik Bonitto) in your first postseason. I do not envy Campbell's position.

The stats are rough, so let's get them out of the way. Campbell has given up pressure rates of 17.2%, 12.1% and 15.0% over his three postseason appearances. His average for the regular season was 11.6%, and the average for all left tackles was 10.1%. This is also with plenty of help, as the Patriots are chipping his way and calling designer plays to let him cut block. But sometimes the head of a rookie can spin, and that's what's happening in New England.

The good news: His team won three playoff games without his best play. (Admittedly, the offense has not looked particularly great in those games overall.) And all will be forgotten with one big performance in Santa Clara on Sunday.

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Orlovsky: Maye will have to play best game of the season for Patriots to win

Adam Schefter and Dan Orlovsky discuss Drake Maye's minor shoulder injury and what he will need to do to win vs. Seattle.

The bad news: Lawrence is coming. He is, in my eyes, the free agent signing of the year.

Um, actually, Sam Darnold is more impactful because he plays quarterback. Yes, yes. Positional value is very impressive. But in terms of big swing met with big results, the Lawrence signing was a masterstroke and a home run. It was so good that I'm mixing imageries.

I really did not like the signing at the time. Lawrence was on the wrong side of 30, was coming off a foot injury (which notoriously linger) and isn't really a pass rusher by trade. I thought the Seahawks needed more juice on the edge, not heavy-handed run defense.

Wrong, Ben. Lawrence has been a keystone in the Seahawks' light box approach, and they have the most successful run defense from light boxes since the 2020 Brandon Staley Rams -- a team that fielded Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. The math of this defensive approach works only with bona fide stars along the defensive line who can reliably play multiple gaps through blocks, slowing down running backs and forcing them to change direction while reinforcements come from depth. The Seahawks have multiple players who can do this -- including Byron Murphy II, Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu -- but nobody's doing it as consistently as Lawrence.

He was second among all edges this season in run stop EPA. When he makes tackles, he makes them at or near the line of scrimmage, and often in critical down-and-distances. The only edge rusher with more EPA won on run stuffs is the Raiders' Maxx Crosby, who had nearly twice as many snaps of run defense (296) as Lawrence (209). Long and physical, Lawrence is the primary reason behind the Seahawks' leap from decent to dominant in run defense in 2025.

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The keyword there is long. Lawrence has 33¾-inch arms, which often afford him control of whichever offensive tackle he's facing. This is especially true against Campbell, whose lack of length was well covered during his predraft process. Campbell's arms are below the 33-inch threshold most teams obey when drafting future tackles, and these sorts of issues are exactly the reason why.

And Campbell has struggled particularly against longer rushers this season. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Campbell's pressure rate allowed jumps from 11.0% to 14.0% when the rusher he's facing has 33½-inch arms or longer, and 8.5 of his 11 sacks added have been from rushers over that threshold. Now, Lawrence is more of a base-down player for the Seahawks. When they take him off the field in favor of Boye Mafe or Derick Hall, it's often on late-and-long downs. With that said ... Hall has 34-inch arms. Nwosu -- another extremely underrated cog of this Seahawks machine -- has 33⅝-inch arms. The length is going to be an issue across the board for Campbell.

Because Lawrence is a longer rusher who often plays the run first, he doesn't get pressures fast. He has a time to pressure of 3.05 seconds, while the league average for edges is 3.01. And because Lawrence is often going through his tackle, he doesn't convert many of his pass rushes into sacks. He has a 13.8% pressure-to-sack conversion rate, which is also below the league average for edge rushers (14.8%). In fact, every single Seahawks edge rusher is below the league average for pressure-to-sack conversion rate.

To some degree, this is stylistic of Macdonald's defense. The Seahawks rarely deploy a plain four-man rush, instead using simulated pressures to force quick checkdown throws that they can easily rally to and tackle down. But for this particular matchup, the Seahawks' ability to get sacks is significant.

Why? Drake Maye was one of the most sacked quarterbacks in football this season. Every single other metric on Maye's season was pristine, and he would be deserving of the MVP award if he got the nod over Matthew Stafford. But the one stat that reflects poorly on his game is his sack rate: 23% of his pressured dropbacks (10th worst) and 7.8% of all his dropbacks (12th worst).

This really isn't that bad of a mark against Maye. He's first in the league in dropback success rate, EPA per dropback and explosive play rate. If the price of doing business is an above-average sack rate -- not even league-leading or top-five, just above average -- that's a price everyone is willing to pay. Plus, Maye has also inflated his sack numbers on a lot of 1- or 2-yard losses while scrambling out of bounds.

But every Maye scramble will be a precious commodity in this game. The Seahawks have not faced many scrambling quarterbacks this season. Of the 10 QBs with the most rushing yards per game this season, the Seahawks' defense has faced only one: Baker Mayfield in Week 5. A few other quarterbacks would qualify if they played enough games (Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels). And in general, the Seahawks are fine against scrambles, giving up 6.7 yards per scramble, well below the league average. But they haven't faced a quarterback this capable of breaking out of tight pockets and outrunning pursuit at the second level since they played Daniels in Week 9.

Maye is really big and really explosive. He generally has a good feel for when to extend plays to throw and when to extend plays to run -- but he does lean to the more dangerous side of seeking downfield shots. Against Seattle, that's an absolute no-no. Every 5-yard scamper is critical to staying ahead of the sticks and manufacturing third-and-shorts or fourth-and-shorts. Maye must be willing to immediately take an open upfield alley and ensure a positive gain, even if lingering in the pocket for another second might have opened a receiver downfield. Managing this balance between Superman and stick-mover has been the great challenge in the developments of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as young stars in this league. Maye has to nail that developmental arc here, despite it being the end of only his second season. Big ask.

Critically, the Seahawks do not spy much if at all, believing instead in their pass rush and the discipline of their zone defenders. But do not be surprised if they start spying as a wrinkle in this game, especially if Maye is hurting them on third down with his legs.

It's hard to imagine the Patriots winning unless Campbell has a standout effort against Lawrence or Maye minimizes Campbell's impact with multiple explosive runs. The Seahawks' defense is a truly elite unit -- I don't throw that adjective around often -- in large part because of magnificent scheming. The best way to beat magnificent schemes is with transcendent talent on structure-breaking plays like scramble drills. So the single most important part of the Patriots' offensive game plan this week is ensuring Maye is fast out of the pocket against pressure.

Seahawks QB Sam Darnold vs. ... Seahawks QB Sam Darnold

Fresh off his best game of the season, it's a little tricky to talk about Darnold as a potentially weak point for the Patriots to expose. But he is one.

Darnold's peaks are as high as his valleys are deep, which leads to some wild swings in performance. Here's every game in which a quarterback has had 25 dropbacks this season, sorted by EPA per dropback. Darnold has 15 such games, and they're highlighted in red.

Six of Darnold's 15 games are in the bottom quartile of league performances -- all those red lines way at the right side of the graph. But five are in the top quartile (and a sixth just missed). He is not the only QB with large swings between his best and worst games. But this graph matches the eye test. When Darnold is on, he's on. When he's off, he quickly spirals.

Take his tight-window passing -- the hallmark of his strong start to the season. From Weeks 1-10, Darnold was 19-of-35 (54.3%) for 339 yards (9.7 yards per attempt). Those are astonishing numbers. Those are unmaintainable numbers. In the 10 games since then, he's 6-of-37 (16.2%) for 99 yards (2.7 yards per attempt). He went from a 2-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio to 1-to-5 down the back stretch. His passer rating went from 109.7 to 9.0.

The good news is that Darnold attempts fewer tight window throws than the average quarterback in large part because his passing windows are so well schemed by Klint Kubiak. There's a reason Kubiak is going to be a head coach in Las Vegas. Darnold had the fifth-highest rate of open downfield receivers this season.

But schemed-up offenses can suffer from fragility if the quarterback struggles outside of structure. When Darnold has the time and confidence to execute, his arm talent allows him to attempt (and hit) those tight-window throws that other system quarterbacks eschew. But when Darnold is pressured, he does not scramble, create and adjust the way someone such as Brock Purdy does. We talked about this phenomenon a little bit earlier, but in leaguewide quarterback rankingss this season, Darnold is eighth in EPA per unpressured dropback and 24th in EPA per pressured dropback. Likewise, he's sixth in adjusted net yards per attempt unpressured as opposed to 21st when pressured.

That's a Darnold vs. pressure stat. But this is about Darnold vs. Darnold. Kubiak will scheme it up with the best of them, but Mike Vrabel and his defensive staff will have had two weeks to prepare for Seattle's favorite late-down concepts and its tendencies out of certain formations and groupings. The Patriots' defense has been punching above its perceived weight for much of the season in large part because of coaching, and New England will have answers on third and fourth down.

The reality of playoff football is that Darnold will be pressured, he will take sacks, and he probably will even throw a pick. (DraftKings Sportsbook prices one or more Darnold interceptions at -131, which is an implied likelihood of 56.7%.) Funny enough, one of the most common complaints about Geno Smith on his way out of Seattle was his willingness to throw interceptions. Smith had an interception rate of 2.3% in 2024; Darnold has a rate of 2.7% this season.

The important question: What happens next?

Can Darnold, in the biggest game of his life, avoid compounding on the mistakes that he inevitably makes? In Week 16 against the Rams, he threw two second-half interceptions and the Seahawks fell behind 30-14 in the fourth quarter. I would have told you the game was over -- and perhaps it would have been if not for a Shaheed punt return touchdown and another 30-yard carry to set up the tying touchdown. Perhaps it would have been if not for an absurd Zach Charbonnet 2-point conversion on an incomplete backward pass. But Darnold also did his job down the stretch, pulling a winning performance out of a four-sack, two-interception outing.

Talent for talent, the Seahawks have the Patriots outclassed -- especially when New England has the ball. Brutal truth, but truth nonetheless. This game, like many games Darnold has played this season, is one his defense can win if he just avoids crippling negatives. But at the same time, Seattle isn't facing Max Brosmer or Bryce Young or Philip Rivers on the other side, as it did for some of Darnold's shakier games this season. The Seahawks are 2-1 in Darnold's multipick games this season. Going 3-1 would be asking far, far too much.

My pick: Seahawks 16, Patriots 13

I think this is a tight, low-scoring game with a lot of punts. I think Maye and the Patriots operate their passing game very close to the line of scrimmage and struggle to break Seattle's superb tackling, which leads to short drives. I think Darnold plays an extremely tight game early to avoid negatives, and Seattle ends up punting a bunch for field position. If we're at 6-3 at the half, I won't be the least bit surprised.

As such, I have this game coming down to which offense gets two or three precious explosive plays or which defense gets one or two critical turnovers in the opponent's territory. I lean Seattle, but I could easily see it going the other way.