LaLiga is back! Can Real Madrid beat leaders Barça to title?

3 hours ago 3

Alex Kirkland
Sam Marsden

Jan 2, 2026, 04:00 AM ET

After the winter break, LaLiga is back! All right, it was only an 11-day hibernation, but with Christmas and New Year's celebrations happening in between, we thought it would be good to catch you up on the 2025-26 season before it resumes.

Defending champions Barcelona were Spain's "Christmas champions," heading into the break with a four-point lead at the top of the table despite losing the first Clásico of the season against their bitter rivals 2-1 back in October.

Despite turning their stadium into a winter wonderland over the festive period, the Bernabéu has not been a happy place for Real Madrid, with constant speculation over coach Xabi Alonso's job security due to a disappointing run of results and performances in the weeks following that win over Barça. But as long as they have star striker Kylian Mbappé in some of the best form of his career, they have hope of reviving their season.

- How Alonso's Real Madrid start compares to Mourinho, Ancelotti, Zidane
- Hunter's midseason verdicts: Barça lead the way, but is there a title race?
- Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappé, Haaland, Kane? Who was 2025's top goal scorer?

Atlético Madrid and Villarreal round out the top four as the season approaches the halfway point, and neither team should be discounted from making a push into the top two before the campaign is over.

So, what is there to look forward to for the rest of the season in LaLiga? Let ESPN correspondents Sam Marsden and Alex Kirkland get you up to speed. And remember, you can stream every single game LIVE on ESPN+ (U.S. only).

Title race: Can Madrid overtake Christmas leaders Barça?

On current form, it's going to be very difficult. Barça have built up a four-point lead and, just as importantly, have seen important players such as Raphinha and Pedri return from injuries in recent weeks. Hansi Flick's side made it eight wins in a row in LaLiga against Villarreal before the winter break, and it's hard to see Barça dropping enough points for Madrid to catch them.

If they do, it will be because of their defending. No one has conceded more goals than Barça in the top seven, but when they have Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski, Marcus Rashford and Ferran Torres as attacking options, it rarely matters.

Of course, injuries and, to a certain extent, what happens in the Champions League and Copa del Rey -- how many matches both teams end up with, and where their priorities lie in March -- might also play a part.

Madrid know only too well how quickly things can change. Their Clásico win over Barça in October took them five points clear at the time, but things have been far from straightforward since then. Alonso's future is under constant scrutiny -- even when they win games -- and that generates an environment around the club which is not always entirely helpful.

Despite that, in Mbappé, who has 18 league goals this term, they have the league's outstanding player so far this season and a squad packed with quality that should beat most teams in the league. If they can click into gear again, there is no reason they can't apply some real pressure to Barça. -- Sam Marsden

Race for Europe: Are Villarreal now Spain's third-best team?

Not yet. Let's not get carried away! It's Atlético Madrid who occupy third place coming out of the Christmas break and, having finished in the top three in 12 of the past 13 seasons, they've more than earned that title. You need to be able to make a watertight case for Marcelino García Toral's team to dislodge them.

There are some arguments in Villarreal's favor, so let's list them: They're two points behind Atlético with two games in hand, the first of which will be played next week against Alavés, while Atlético are away at the Supercopa. Villarreal have won as many games as Atlético so far (11) and lost the same amount (3). They've conceded the fewest goals in LaLiga (15, compared with Atlético's 16), albeit from fewer games, and their goals allowed per game is 0.9, which matches Real Madrid and Atlético, and betters Barcelona's 1.1.

It's in attack where Villarreal struggle to compete with the best. They've scored 31 goals (compared with Barça's 51, Madrid's 36 and Atlético's 33) and their expected goals is even lower, at 27.15 (compared with Atlético's 29.63). Villarreal's top scorers in LaLiga are Alberto Moleiro (6) Tajon Buchanan (5) and Gerard Moreno (4). In the Champions League, they have just one point from six games (the same as bottom-of-the-table Kairat Almaty) and in the Copa del Rey they were eliminated by a weakened, second-tier Racing Santander team last month.

And let's look at Villarreal's results against the LaLiga big three: They lost 2-0 at Atlético in September, 3-1 at Real Madrid in October, and 2-0 at Barcelona in December. When they come up against the best, they fall short. But they're much better than the rest. So no, Villarreal aren't Spain's third-best team. Right now, they're fourth best. Let's check back in at the end of the season. Otherwise, Espanyol look like strong, surprise candidates for fifth -- which would be a remarkable achievement for coach Manolo González -- with a five-point lead over Real Betis in sixth, who in turn are five points ahead of Celta Vigo and Athletic Club. -- Alex Kirkland

Relegation: Will Girona, Valencia beat drop again?

Girona were playing Champions League football this time last year, and Valencia have always been deemed too big to go down, but both are in a battle to maintain their LaLiga status heading into 2026.

Girona have looked OK at times, such as when drawing with Real Madrid, but have been far too inconsistent. The Catalans are closing in on the signing of Manchester City's Claudio Echeverri on loan, though, and hope that will provide more quality in attack, where they have managed just 15 goals in 17 matches this season.

Valencia, meanwhile, looked to have turned a corner under Carlos Corberán last season; yet here they are, a year on, on the brink of another relegation battle. Like Girona, they are struggling to score, managing just 16 in their 17 games, and are without a win in four. Look at their squad and it is night and day from the Valencia sides of the past that would compete for European football each season.

Whether either will drop, though, might depend on the teams above them. The bottom two of Real Oviedo and Levante look doomed, which means there might be only one spot left. In that sense, anyone from Elche in ninth with 22 points, right down to Real Sociedad in 16th with 17 points, could still be in danger.

With 15 and 16 points, respectively, Girona and Valencia are still within touching distance. The likes of Mallorca and Alavés look particularly catchable. It's not panic stations yet. -- SM

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Top scorer: Can anyone catch Mbappé?

Eighteen goals in as many league games this season is a formidable return for Mbappé so far this season. Even with the France striker's knee sprain, announced on Wednesday, it looks as though he has the Pichichi award as LaLiga's top scorer sewn up.

Ferran Torres, who has deservedly won his place as Barcelona's first-choice center forward (with 1,086 LaLiga minutes compared with Lewandowski's 668), has 11 goals. Mallorca's Vedat Muriqi has nine. Lewandowski has eight, and Atlético's Julián Álvarez is one of four players (alongside Raphinha, Yamal and Betis' Cucho Hernández) with seven. But after a hot start to the season, Alvarez has scored just once in 11 league games. Would you really back him, or any of the others, to catch Mbappé?

Mbappé doesn't just have the most goals in LaLiga; he also has the most non-penalty goals (13), the highest non-penalty xG (11, to Ferran's 8.5), the most shots (82, to Lamine's 59), and the most shots on target (33, to Ferran's 22). And he has scored 18 goals in an often-dysfunctional Real Madrid team, which even when it has won, hasn't been often racking up big scores (Madrid won four league games by 3+ goals). If Madrid improve, even moderately, his goal-scoring rate should increase. And if that happens, there's only one Pichichi candidate worth talking about. -- Kirkland

What else to watch for?

Real Sociedad are one team to keep an eye on in the second half of the season. The Basque side have appointed American coach Pellegrino Matarazzo, who previously coached in Germany with VfB Stuttgart and TSG Hoffenheim, to steady the ship after sacking Sergio Francisco with the side languishing just two points above the drop zone.

Francisco inherited a squad that had started to decline after great success under Imanol Alguacil in recent years, but he still should have done better given the talent at his disposal. Matarazzo's job is to get the best out of the likes of Takefusa Kubo, Mikel Oyarzabal and Brais Méndez and help the team move up the table. It will be fascinating to see what he can achieve in San Sebastián. -- SM

Two midtable teams are worth focusing on, and just a point separates them: Athletic Club and Elche. Athletic finished fourth last season, matching Villarreal's 70-point tally to qualify for the Champions League. But it's been all downhill since then. Only two teams -- relegation candidates Real Oviedo and Levante -- have more losses than Athletic's nine defeats this season. Their tally of goals scored, 16, ranks them 14th in the table. And even their goals against tally (24), normally an Athletic strength, puts them 13th. Athletic are creating chances. Their xG is 24.54, the seventh best in the division, and they've taken 238 shots, which puts them fourth. But they aren't scoring goals. Top scorers Nico Williams and Robert Navarro have three each, and neither is a center forward.

As for keeping an eye on Elche, don't take our word for it -- listen to coach Eder Sarabia. "Do you think we're in one of the best moments in Elche's history? I think so," he told journalists last month. And it's hard to argue. Their 4-0 win over Rayo Vallecano before Christmas was the icing on the cake of an incredible year which has seen them win promotion and look absolutely at home in the first division since. Only Barcelona and Real Madrid have more possession (averaging 57.8%) or have a higher pass completion rate (86.9%), a figure that rises in the final third (Elche's is 87.5%, compared to Barcelona's 86.3%). Elche are one of the best, most exciting teams to watch in LaLiga. So watch them. -- Kirkland

Title predictions

The momentum can quickly swing in LaLiga, as we saw after Madrid's Clásico win in October, but I think Barça will have enough to make it back-to-back titles under Flick. With injuries and without perhaps playing as scintillatingly as they did at times last season, they are still better off than they were at this point last year and lead the table by four points. If everyone stays fit, it's theirs to lose. -- SM

Real Madrid might well improve in the second half of the season under Alonso, but there's been no sign of it happening so far. And even if Alonso is replaced, there's no guarantee of a boost to the team's results. So, I'd back Barça, with their four-point lead at Christmas and an established, all-round more convincing (if imperfect) style of play, to win it. -- AK