Raiders offense was meant to make strides under Kelly, but the opposite has occurred

In Week 10, the Las Vegas Raiders reached a new offensive low in a season filled with them. Against the division-leading Denver Broncos, the Raiders had an opportunity to pull off an upset at Empower Field at Mile High -- a stadium known for miracles. However, they were unable to capitalize on the defense's best performance of the season.

Tight end Brock Bowers only had one catch for 31 yards. Quarterback Geno Smith threw an interception for the 12th time this season. And Las Vegas failed to rush for at least 100 yards for the fourth straight game.

The 10-7 loss marked the fourth time this season the Raiders scored fewer than 10 points in a game -- most in the NFL and tied for their most through nine games in franchise history (1981, 2006 and 2009), per ESPN Research.

Entering its "Monday Night Football" matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN), Las Vegas has been held to fewer than 30 points in 29 consecutive games -- the longest active streak in the NFL and second-longest in franchise history (35-game streak from 1991-93).

"What's my level of concern? That we're not scoring enough points," coach Pete Carroll said. "That's about as obvious as you can get...There are a lot of factors here."

In 2025, the offense wasn't expected to be the team's Achilles heel. Under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, first-round running back Ashton Jeanty and Smith, a two-time Pro Bowl selection in three seasons as Seattle's starter, the unit was meant to be stronger than last year's group.

That has not been the case.

Several factors have contributed to Las Vegas' offensive struggles. The Raiders have suffered injuries to key players, including starting left tackle Kolton Miller (ankle), Bowers, and most recently, right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson (ankle), who was placed on injured reserve.

The Raiders have hurt themselves on multiple occasions, from Smith's turnovers to untimely penalties that have made it hard to keep drives alive. These issues prolonged could lead to significant changes in the offseason.

"The more you dwell on it, you're just going to keep digging yourself in an even bigger hole," tight end Michael Mayer said. "It sucks to be saying that. I feel like I say that a lot here...We've got to dig ourselves out of this hole."

PUT THE RAIDERS' offensive numbers from 2024 and 2025 side-by-side, and the lack of improvement is alarming.

Last season, they ranked 29th in points (18.18 per game), 27th in total yards (303.2), 32nd in rushing yards (79.8), 31st in EPA (minus-94.20), and 27th in red zone efficiency (48.9%). Those struggles led to the firing of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy after nine games and Scott Turner taking over in an interim role.

In 2025, Las Vegas is 31st in points, 30th in total yards (272.7), 29th in rushing yards (87.4), 30th in EPA (minus-52.64) and 28th in red zone efficiency (47.8%). If the Raiders' current averages in points and total yards hold, it would be their lowest over a full season since 2009 (12.3 points per game and 266.1 total yards per game).

The Raiders' red zone rate, rushing yards and total yards are the lowest for Kelly in five seasons as an NFL head coach or coordinator.

"We are definitely not where we want to be," said third-year wide receiver Tre Tucker. "I'm a little surprised."

Carroll hoped progress would've been made following their best offensive performance of the season in the 30-29 overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9.

Smith threw four touchdown passes, including three to Bowers -- who also had 12 catches for 127 yards in his first game back since Sept. 28. But against Denver, the offense looked like an incompetent group. The Raiders had 188 total yards, including 74 on the ground.

"...We were gaga over the performance that we had in Brock's return. And I figured we were pedal to the metal," Carroll said. "Unfortunately, we came back this past week [against] Denver, one of the best teams in the NFL on defense, and we couldn't get going on them. Was it Denver? Was it us? Is it Dallas? Is it us? We'll find out as we keep going."

To start the 2025 season, the stars looked aligned for Las Vegas to be better offensively. The Raiders traded for Smith after he became one of the league's most accurate passers. They also drafted Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick, creating optimism that top skill-position players, along with Kelly calling the shots, would lead to better results. General manager John Spytek viewed Kelly, after winning a national title with Ohio State, as a "great offensive mind" who gets the most out of his quarterbacks.

When he was at Oregon from 2009-2012, the Ducks were first in the nation in points per game (44.72) and 11th in plays per game (75.1). The Philadelphia Eagles ranked third in points (26.9) in the three seasons (2013-2015) when he was with the organization.

His transition from Oregon to Philadelphia went smoothly. In his first season, the Eagles went 10-6 and averaged 27.6 points per game compared to 17.5 in the previous season. But he didn't have the same success during his lone season as coach with the San Francisco 49ers in 2016. The team finished 2-14 and averaged 19.2 points.

As Ohio State's offensive coordinator, Kelly orchestrated an efficient group despite slowing down the pace. Following six seasons as the coach at UCLA (2018-2023), he led the Buckeyes to be ranked 14th in points (35.69). Ohio State was 120th in plays per game (61.8) and 18th in time of possession per play (29.4 seconds).

"I mean, he's kind of always been at the forefront of offense," Raiders general manager John Spytek said of Kelly, who reportedly has an average annual salary of $6 million with Las Vegas. "...I think we just see a great offensive mind that he gets his quarterbacks to play well. I think you use Will Howard as an example last year; he had a couple of tough moments, but Chip [Kelly] and Will found a way to play their best football when it mattered most. You've got to tip your cap to people that can do that."

But Kelly's return to the NFL hasn't been kind to him and has drawn comparisons to when he failed to spark the 49ers' offense.

THE RAIDERS FLASHED the potential of a functional unit in Week 1's 20-13 win over the New England Patriots. Smith completed 24-of-34 (70.6%) passes for 362 yards, one touchdown, one interception. The Raiders had five different players catch passes for 20-plus yards.

The Raiders took a few steps back when they faced the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2 and have been on a downward spiral since. Smith threw three interceptions while being held to 218 total yards in a 20-9 loss.

"When we played the Chargers, they knew we were an explosive offense," Tucker said. "They kind of kept everything in front of us. I think a lot of people have been following that model."

Since the Week 1 win, Smith has thrown for 1,482 yards, 10 touchdowns and a league-high 11 interceptions. He has had a hard time against zone coverage, throwing 10 picks on 123 attempts, compared to one pick on 66 attempts against man coverage.

The Raiders have failed to recreate the explosive plays made in the opener. Lately, they have been more conservative and relied more on the short passing game to help keep the ball out of harm's way.

Smith averaged 9.2 air yards per attempt from Week 1 to 3 and had six completions on 14 attempts for 20-plus air yards. Since then, he has totaled 4.9 air yards per attempt and completed 2-of-9 passes for 20-plus air yards. The first number would rank second in the league throughout this season; the latter number would rank last by a significant margin.

"There's a little more shell coverage, guys playing on top of deep routes and not letting us run behind them," wide receiver coach Chris Beatty said. "At the end of the day, these coaches are smart now, so they're not gonna let you just run through the defense. They're gonna make some adjustments, and they have."

Undoubtedly, Smith will get the bulk of the blame. He has had accuracy issues and has occasionally held on to the ball for too long. But penalties and pass protection have prevented Las Vegas from keeping drives alive.

Against Denver, the Raiders recorded 10 first downs and converted 4-of-15 third-down attempts. Smith was sacked four times on third down. And penalties by rookies Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Jack Bech negated a pair of big plays, including a 31-yard touchdown catch by Tucker.

"You can't have missed assignments, you can't have penalties, you can't have penalties negating big plays [and] turnovers," Smith said. "Those are the things that hurt teams. When the Raiders stop beating the Raiders, we'll go out there, and we can beat anybody in this league, but we have to stop being ourselves first. It seems like that's been a recurring thing every single week."

WHEN JEANTY ARRIVED in Las Vegas, Carroll expected him to have a major role on offense, similar to how he utilized former running back Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. He had hoped an effective ground game would allow them to control the clock and keep their defense off the field as much as possible.

Jeanty has had his moments. He has 143 carries for 547 yards and four touchdowns. However, he is averaging 3.8 yards per rush, has only one 100-yard game and has been held to fewer than 50 yards in four games.

Carroll wanted to use multiple running backs in a rotation. But that hasn't come into fruition. Las Vegas opened 2025 with Zamir White as the No. 2 but has struggled with only 10 carries for 25 yards this season. Eventually, veteran Raheem Mostert -- who was inactive for the first three weeks -- replaced White.

Mostert had 11 carries for 84 yards, including a 62-yard performance in the loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 4. He hasn't provided much support recently, totaling six carries for no yards in the past four games. Mostert has been primarily used as a blocker and check-down target in third-down situations.

The Raiders' inconsistent run game has gone hand-in-hand with their struggles in the offensive line. Jeanty has rarely had any open space to work with. He's had a league-high 41 carries that resulted in no gain or a loss. It's the most by any Raiders running back through the team's first nine since the start of 2000.

The Raiders have trailed in eight games, forcing them to abandon the run and rely on Smith's arm to win. Las Vegas has trailed in 45% of the game clock this season, the 10th-highest mark in the NFL.

"You want to be balanced. If you're balanced, that's a good thing," Kelly said. "If you're running the ball more, it probably means you're winning, because that means you're in a four-minute offense, and you're going to run the ball more in a four-minute offense than you do in a two-minute offense."

"So, if you're ahead at the end of the game, you're going to get more rushes. If you're behind at the end of the game, you're going to get more throws."

Still, Carroll has been demanding a stronger emphasis on running the ball and playing under center. Earlier in the season, Carroll critiqued the offense in that regard. Smith has lined up in the shotgun on 81.5% of his dropbacks, compared to 14.3% under center.

"That's kind of how [my teams have] won over the years, and it doesn't have to be as productive," Carroll said. "It just needs to be really solid, and you keep the ball away from the other guys."

Despite the Raiders' 2-7 record, Carroll said he doesn't plan to change his approach for the rest of the season. As Las Vegas embarks on the second half of the season, beginning with the Cowboys, Kelly hopes they can "stay in rhythm."

Dallas provides an opportunity for the Raiders to do that. The Cowboys' defense is 28th in rushing yards (143 per game) and passing yards allowed (254.4). However, Dallas improved its defensive line, acquiring Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline.

"There [aren't] many teams that [have] the luxury of riches at defensive tackle with Osa [Odighizuwa], Kenny [Clark] and now Quinnen, so [Dallas] presents some problems," Kelly said. "And I think, because you haven't seen them on tape and how he's going to deploy them, there'll be some adjustments that go on at the beginning of that game."

No matter how the final eight weeks play out, the Raiders will have questions to face when the season ends. Las Vegas has two offensive cornerstones in Jeanty and Bowers, but there's plenty of work that will need to be done, especially at quarterback.

Smith only has a dead cap hit of $18.5 million in 2026, so it's certainly possible the Raiders move on from him. Whether or not Smith shows he can still be the starter beyond 2025, a succession plan should be in place. Las Vegas has a 7% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft and a 54.1% chance of selecting within the top five, according ESPN's Football Power Index.

Las Vegas' interior offensive line could look a bit different. Left guard Dylan Parham will be an unrestricted free agent, and center Jordan Meredith is a restricted free agent. Following the departure of wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders need another reliable pass catcher.

Spytek hinted during the league meetings in April that it would take more than one season to fix the Raiders. The team's attempt to fast-track the process by bringing in Smith and Kelly still didn't prevent them from having to face the inevitability of a long rebuilding process.

"This is not what I expected to happen, and I didn't feel that we would be this far behind at the start of the season," said Carroll.