Ranking men's college basketball impact newcomers: The top 50 transfers, freshmen

Given the increasing lack of continuity in college basketball, projecting the first-year impact of newcomers is more difficult than ever. Freshmen have always been volatile, but that's especially true now that they are four to five years younger than many of the upperclassmen they are up against. And though transfers are perceived to be more of a sure thing, there is no guarantee their production will carry over from one program to the next.

The following ranking of impact newcomers isn't a mock draft, nor is it a rehash of the 2025 recruiting or transfer rankings. It is weighted almost entirely on expected impact during the 2025-26 college basketball season.

To come up with this list, we spoke with college coaches and NBA scouts, looked at box scores of exhibition games and "secret" scrimmages, and projected rotations and roles for hundreds of newcomers. Still, it very much remains an inexact science.

In 2020, we didn't have then-freshman Moses Moody ranked as Arkansas loaded up with experience via the transfer portal. He ended up averaging 16.8 points and was an NBA lottery pick in 2021. In 2022, much of the early buzz surrounding Duke's Kyle Filipowski was that the then-freshman might need time to fully acclimate to the college game. He averaged 15.1 points and 9.0 rebounds in that first season. We will undoubtedly miss on certain players this year, too, but following the early drumbeat has proved to be more right than wrong overall.

With that said, here are the top 50 newcomers we're expecting to have the biggest impact over the next five months, plus 16 more to watch.

Note: Freshmen are marked "Fr.," transfers are marked "T," and international players are marked "Intl."

TOP 50 IMPACT NEWCOMERS

1. Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas (Fr.)

Peterson's poise and approach to the game are beyond his years. As a combination guard, his calling card is operating in ball screens and reading back-line defensive coverages. He has some similarities to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, like getting to his spots to score or make plays. Peterson will have an opportunity for huge on-ball usage in Lawrence and, along with AJ Dybantsa, is a front-runner to be the No. 1 NBA draft pick in 2026. -- Paul Biancardi

2. Cameron Boozer, F, Duke (Fr.)

Boozer is one of the most decorated high school basketball players in modern history, winning four state titles with his high school team to go with two gold medals and MVPs with USA Basketball. He carries himself like a pro with a work ethic and maturity that translate directly to his consistent, productive and winning style of play. He will make an immediate impact as a rebounder, passer and scorer who plays right through contact. Like Peterson and Dybantsa, Boozer will be in the conversation for the top pick in next June's draft. -- Biancardi

3. AJ Dybantsa, G/F, BYU (Fr.)

The highest-ranked recruit to attend BYU, Dybantsa possesses athletic ability akin to Tracy McGrady and the potential of Paul George. Dybantsa is an eye-popping finisher, a high-level switchable defender and an underrated accurate -- and willing -- passer. He is in the conversation for the No. 1 pick in 2026. -- Biancardi

4. Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan (T)

One of the best NBA draft prospects in the portal last year, Lendeborg returned to college despite having first-round projections. He averaged 17.7 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists at UAB last season, and all signs point to Dusty May deploying Lendeborg in creative ways on the offensive end. -- Jeff Borzello

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Yaxel Lendeborg throws down the hammer

Yaxel Lendeborg throws down the hammer

5. Donovan Dent, G, UCLA (T)

Dent should transform UCLA's offense. One of college basketball's elite point guards, he is impossible to keep out of the paint. He was inside the nation's top 15 in scoring and assists last season, averaging 20.4 points and 6.4 assists while finishing the season on a tear for New Mexico with 21 points in the first round of the NCAA tournament against Marquette. -- Borzello

6. Darrion Williams, F, NC State (T)

Williams committing to NC State was a huge late portal splash, giving the Wolfpack a legitimate cornerstone to build Will Wade's first roster in Raleigh around. Williams can do everything on the offensive end and was a first-team All-Big 12 selection last season at Texas Tech. -- Borzello

7. Mikel Brown Jr., G, Louisville (Fr.)

Brown is one of the most skilled guards in the country, with perimeter shooting reminiscent of Trae Young when it comes to a quick release, deep range and accuracy. Pat Kelsey is going to put the ball in Brown's hands and has surrounded him with shooters and scorers, allowing Brown to control the pace of the action and create scoring opportunities while putting points on the board. -- Biancardi

8. Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa (T)

Stirtz followed Ben McCollum to the coach's third school after playing for McCollum at Northwest Missouri State and Drake. As a result, expect Stirtz to have the ball in his hands for long stretches every possession. It has worked incredibly well so far. He was Missouri Valley Player of the Year last season. -- Borzello

9. Nate Ament, F, Tennessee (Fr.)

At 6-foot-10 with advanced perimeter ball skills, Ament has one of the highest upsides in the incoming freshman class. He gives the Volunteers great versatility as a big wing or a skilled stretch forward. Ament is a fluid shooter whether he's spotting up or on the move, and he's the best candidate to break up the Dybantsa-Peterson-Boozer hegemony at the top of the 2026 draft. -- Biancardi

10. P.J. Haggerty, G, Kansas State (T)

After two significantly productive seasons at Tulsa then Memphis, Haggerty landed in a spot where he should be able to put up massive numbers. He was one of the best guards in the country last season, winning AAC Player of the Year and earning second-team All-America honors after averaging 21.7 points. -- Borzello

11. Ja'Kobi Gillespie, G, Tennessee (T)

Gillespie is at his third school, starting his career at Belmont before transferring to Maryland, where he solidified himself as one of the country's premier point guards. He averaged 14.7 points and 4.8 assists last season while shooting nearly 41% from 3 and will immediately step in to replace Zakai Zeigler. -- Borzello

12. Bryce Hopkins, F, St. John's (T)

Hopkins hasn't played a full season since 2022-23 because of injuries, but a fully healthy Hopkins is a force in the Big East. He was a first-team All-Big East selection as a sophomore and averaged 15.5 points and 8.6 rebounds in 14 games the last time we saw him at 100%. He and Zuby Ejiofor could be dominant for the Red Storm. -- Borzello

13. Ryan Conwell, G, Louisville (T)

Pat Kelsey needed scoring and shooting in the portal, and Conwell was among the premier players in those categories this past spring. He was a third-team All-Big East selection after averaging 16.5 points and shooting better than 41% from 3. He and Mikel Brown Jr. will form a truly elite backcourt for the Cardinals. -- Borzello

14. Tounde Yessoufou, G/F, Baylor (Fr.)

Yessoufou has a combination of explosiveness and power to go with his developing skill set. He plays a downhill attacking game with consistent high energy. He draws fouls and his 3-point shot has made strides since the McDonald's All American game. He has the highlight-reel potential of Anthony Edwards. -- Biancardi

15. Boogie Fland, G, Florida (T)

Fland didn't take long to commit to the reigning national champion Gators after withdrawing from the NBA draft -- a much-needed development for Todd Golden's team. Fland suffered a hand injury midway through last season, but the former five-star prospect was having a terrific freshman campaign at Arkansas, averaging 15.1 points and 5.7 assists over the first 18 games. -- Borzello

16. Thijs De Ridder, F (Intl.), and Johann Grunloh, C (Intl.), Virginia

It won't be long until both these players are wearing NBA jerseys. De Ridder is technically an undrafted free agent after going through the 2025 draft process. The 22-year-old averaged 9.3 points in Spain's top division last season. The 7-foot Grunloh is a big-time shot blocker and has been productive at the club level in the Basketball Bundesliga and on the international circuit with Germany's U16 and U18 age groups. -- Borzello

17. Koa Peat, F, Arizona (Fr.)

Peat is physically imposing at 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, defending rebounds, screens and scores with productivity. With a résumé that features four consecutive state championships in high school, he is a fierce competitor who will bring leadership, and he could emerge as the Wildcats' top scorer. -- Biancardi

18. Jayden Quaintance, F, Kentucky (T)

Quaintance may have ranked even higher if he was fully healthy, but the Arizona State transfer tore his right ACL late last season and isn't 100% yet. That said, he is a potential lottery pick due to his activity on the defensive end of the floor. He was also the youngest player in college basketball last season and is only 18 years old. -- Borzello

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Jayden Quaintance throws down a big dunk

Jayden Quaintance gets the ball and finishes with a two-handed slam

19. Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina (Fr.)

Wilson's high-level athletic ability and versatile skill set will give Hubert Davis the ability to use different lineups throughout the season. The offseason buzz coming out of Chapel Hill is that Wilson has been looking extremely sharp in workouts and practices, while also bringing a level of personality not often seen from freshmen. -- Biancardi

20. Darius Acuff Jr., G, Arkansas (Fr.)

A scoring guard who is reminiscent of Damian Lillard at the same stage, Acuff will be relied upon heavily as a shot creator and playmaker. He has the talent to put up big numbers or be a crunch-time performer. He has been a high-usage player throughout his development and has the experience to handle pressure. -- Biancardi

21. Jaland Lowe, G, Kentucky (T)

The buzz coming out of Lawrence about Lowe has been overwhelmingly positive. His shooting took a step back as a sophomore, but he still managed to earn third-team All-ACC honors after averaging 16.8 points and 5.5 assists at Pittsburgh last season. Expect Mark Pope to give Lowe the keys to the offense. -- Borzello

22. Braylon Mullins, G, UConn (Fr.)

There is not a better jump shooter among the incoming freshman class than Mullins. He plays with intensity, reads the hard closeout and is adept at driving the ball straight to the basket. A high-percentage free throw shooter and a zone buster, he gives UConn a consistent perimeter threat. -- Biancardi

23. Rodney Rice, G, USC (T)

If Rice can carry over his late-season form, he should be one of the most dangerous scorers in the Big Ten. The Maryland transfer averaged 18.8 points and shot 45.1% from 3 over an eight-game stretch between late January and late February last season, and he will have a significant offensive role for Eric Musselman's Trojans. -- Borzello

24. Wesley Yates III, G, Washington (T)

Yates is in his second stint at Washington after redshirting with the Huskies as a freshman before transferring to USC for 2024-25. A high-level shooter, he was one of the standout freshmen in the country down the stretch last season, averaging 18.8 points over his final 11 games. -- Borzello

25. KJ Lewis, G, Georgetown (T)

Lewis was one of the best sixth men in the country last season, playing behind a talented backcourt duo at Arizona. Now at Georgetown, Lewis will slot into the starting lineup and could be the best offensive player for Ed Cooley. Lewis is physical, explosive and can make plays at both ends. -- Borzello

26. Henri Veesaar, F, North Carolina (T)

If Veesaar plays like he did over the second half of last season, his ranking -- and North Carolina's No. 25 ranking in the preseason AP poll -- could prove to be too low. He hit double figures in seven of eight games this past February and helped turn Arizona's season around with his size and ability to stretch opposing defenses. -- Borzello

27. Rob Wright III, G, BYU (T)

With Dybantsa and Richie Saunders alongside him on the perimeter, Wright will have open driving lanes and should be able to rack up assists to his two wing stars. He has been surrounded by high-level players dating back to high school, so finding his role shouldn't be an issue. He steps up in the biggest games, scoring 24 points for Baylor against a ranked Kansas last February. -- Borzello

28. Tucker DeVries, G, Indiana (T)

How will DeVries' Missouri Valley production translate to the Big Ten? He won MVC Player of the Year twice under his father's tutelage at Drake, but he played in just eight games at West Virginia last season -- averaging 14.9 points and shooting 47.3% from 3 -- before missing the rest of the campaign with an injury. -- Borzello

29. Ian Jackson, G, St. John's (T)

Jackson is one of the most talented offensive players in the country, averaging 15.3 points in 12 starts as a freshman at North Carolina. The former five-star prospect may have to adjust to being more of a playmaker at St. John's, but he should get every opportunity to showcase his ability. -- Borzello

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Ian Jackson's best plays of the season

Take a look at Ian Jackson's top moments with UNC this past season after news of his transfer to St. John's.

30. Brayden Burries, G, Arizona (Fr.)

Burries will have an impact on the offensive end for Tommy Lloyd with his knack for scoring from all spots. A battle-tested guard who understands how to slow down on offense and read the defense, Burries should be a dependable freshman who starts right away. -- Biancardi

31. Nikolas Khamenia, F (Fr.), and Dame Sarr, G (Intl.), Duke

Expect Khamenia and Sarr to battle for the starting spot on the wing under Jon Scheyer. Khamenia has the size and skill to make himself a mismatch, and he has demonstrated he can play and produce at all three levels offensively. He is also a high-level competitor. Sarr, an Italian who played for FC Barcelona, is a projected lottery pick. He is an excellent straight-line driver who likes to slash his way to the basket. He also has potential as a switchable defender with his size and length, and his experience and shotmaking ability will be an asset. -- Biancardi

32. Neoklis Avdalas, G, Virginia Tech (Intl.)

Avdalas withdrew from the NBA draft last spring but could be one-and-done with the Hokies. The 6-foot-8 versatile perimeter player impressed at May's NBA draft combine, showing impressive shooting ability as he grew more comfortable throughout the week. He will have the ball in his hands plenty in Blacksburg. -- Borzello

33. Silas Demary Jr., G, UConn (T)

Dan Hurley revamped his point guard situation in the offseason, landing Demary and Malachi Smith after the Huskies' struggles in that area a year ago. Demary has the requisite size and playmaking ability, averaging 18.3 points and 3.5 assists while shooting 39% from 3 over his final 10 games at Georgia last season. -- Borzello

34. Andrej Stojakovic, F, Illinois (T)

Stojakovic enjoyed a breakout campaign as a sophomore, jumping from 7.8 points as a freshman at Stanford to 17.9 points last season at California. Now he will try to extend that trend at Illinois under Brad Underwood. He could immediately step in as the best pure scorer on the team. -- Borzello

35. Shelton Henderson, G, Miami (Fr.)

Henderson is as physically ready as any freshman in the country, so Jai Lucas is likely to rely on the former Duke signee from the first game of the season. NBA scouts have frequented Coral Gables, with Henderson -- a versatile perimeter playmaker -- being the main attraction. -- Borzello

36. Mouhamed Sylla, C, Georgia Tech (Fr.)

Coach Damon Stoudamire can't stop singing the praises of Sylla, who will be part of a dominant interior duo alongside returning big man Baye Ndongo. Sylla has drawn the attention of NBA scouts during the run-up to the season, and he should make an immediate impact as a major lob catcher, screen setter, rebounder and shot blocker. His ability to run the floor also catches the eye. -- Biancardi

37. Keyshawn Hall, F, Auburn (T)

In his first season at the helm, expect Steven Pearl to rely heavily on Hall and Tahaad Pettiford. Hall is the program's most proven college scorer, coming off a season in which he averaged 18.8 points and 7.1 rebounds and earned second-team All-Big 12 honors at UCF. He can shoot from the perimeter and creates matchup issues for opponents. -- Borzello

38. LeJuan Watts, F, Texas Tech (T)

Darrion Williams leaves big shoes to fill, but coach Grant McCasland found arguably the most like-for-like replacement in the portal with Watts. He is a matchup nightmare between his versatile skill set and his 6-foot-6, 225-pound frame. The Washington State transfer is coming off a season in which he averaged 13.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists while shooting 42% from 3. -- Borzello

39. Kingston Flemings, G (Fr.) and Chris Cenac Jr., C (Fr.), Houston

Kelvin Sampson might have to start two freshmen this season, but he has three top-25 recruits to work with. Early word out of Houston is that Flemings is ready to make an instant impact alongside Milos Uzan in the backcourt. Cenac, a potential lottery pick who is gifted with incredible physical tools, is an elite vertical athlete who looks to dunk on defenders and should be a force on the glass. -- Borzello and Biancardi

40. Matt Able, G, NC State (Fr.)

Able was a breakout star in the summer going into his senior season, then won a state championship and rose all the way into the top 25 of the SC Next 100. His shooting range, accuracy and ability to drive the closeout will translate well to the college level. He has added strength and weight and is already drawing NBA draft buzz. -- Biancardi

41. Hannes Steinbach, C, Washington (Intl.)

Steinbach was one of the most dominant players at the FIBA U19 World Cup this summer, leading Germany to a silver medal. He was eighth in scoring and second in rebounding after averaging 9.1 points and 6.9 rebounds as an 18-year-old in Germany's first division. -- Borzello

42. Xaivian Lee, G, Florida (T)

Before Fland committed to the Gators, Lee looked likely to be Florida's point guard and Walter Clayton Jr. replacement from Day 1. Now, Lee will split the playmaking duties with Fland, but both players are capable of playing on or off the ball. The Princeton transfer averaged 16.9 points and 5.5 assists last season. -- Borzello

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Xaivian Lee's top plays of the 2024-25 season

Check out Xaivian Lee's top plays of the 2024-25 season as the Princeton standout transfers to the University of Florida.

43. Acaden Lewis, G, Villanova (Fr.)

A onetime Kentucky commit, Lewis was looking for a bigger role, and he found it with Villanova. He has proved to be one of the best in the 2025 class at functioning out of ball screens. He also has the fortitude, résumé and role -- Kevin Willard is going to put the ball in Lewis' hands -- to make an immediate splash in the Big East. -- Biancardi

44. Mario Saint-Supery, G, Gonzaga (Intl.)

Saint-Supery could hold the keys to Gonzaga's season. He is battling for the starting point guard spot with former Colgate transfer Braeden Smith, but Saint-Supery's passing ability and high-level talent should give him the edge. He averaged 8.3 points in Spain's top league and has been superb on the international circuit. -- Borzello

45. Shon Abaev, F, Cincinnati (Fr.)

Cincinnati was a subpar offensive team a year ago, finishing 100th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency -- and that's where Abaev could really make an impact. He gives coach Wes Miller a legitimate scoring threat with terrific positional size at 6-foot-8 and a flamethrower mentality. He is Cincinnati's second-highest-ranked recruit in program history, behind only Lance Stephenson. -- Biancardi

46. Chad Baker-Mazara, F, USC (T)

Baker-Mazara might be relied upon to handle more of a playmaking role for the Trojans, but he has the perimeter versatility to take on that responsibility. He started 34 games for Auburn's Final Four team last season, averaging 12.3 points and shooting 38% from 3. The 25-year-old also impacts defensively. -- Borzello

47. Luka Bogavac, G, North Carolina (Intl.)

Bogavac was a key get for the Tar Heels deep into the spring, as Hubert Davis desperately needed added pop on the perimeter. The Montenegrin, who turned 22 last month, averaged 14.9 points and shot nearly 40% from 3 in the Adriatic League. -- Borzello

48. Kayden Mingo, G, Penn State (Fr.)

Coach Mike Rhoades couldn't stop raving about Mingo at Big Ten Media Day earlier this month, saying the team is "going to give [Mingo] the keys to the program right now and let him go." That's high praise for a freshman point guard. -- Borzello

49. Owen Freeman, C, Creighton (T)

The Iowa transfer is replacing Ryan Kalkbrenner down low for coach Greg McDermott, and while he is not nearly as good defensively as Kalkbrenner, Freeman is one of the best post scorers in the country. He averaged 16.7 points last season before missing the final six weeks with a finger injury. He also underwent knee surgery over the summer and is working his way back to 100%. -- Borzello

50. Andrej Kostic, G, Kansas State (Intl.)

A projected first-round pick in ESPN's early 2026 mock draft, Kostic will form a dynamic backcourt with Memphis transfer P.J. Haggerty. The 18-year-old averaged 16.0 points for Serbia at the U19 World Cup this summer and 16.4 points last season for KK Dynamic in Serbia's top division. -- Borzello

16 SLEEPER NEWCOMERS

Xavion Staton, C (Fr.), and Kennard Davis Jr., G (T), BYU

BYU will be one of the elite offensive teams in college basketball this season, but the Cougars also need to shore things up on the defensive end. Staton and Davis will help. Staton will come off the bench behind Keba Keita, but he is a high-level rim protector who isn't afraid to meet prospective dunkers at the rim. Meanwhile, Davis has 6-foot-6 size, he guards and he also shot the ball at a 38% clip from 3 last season at Southern Illinois. -- Borzello

Jamarion Bateman, G, Iowa State (Fr.)

With Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert out the door, T.J. Otzelberger will need someone to step up as a consistent offensive contributor on the wings. Bateman could fill that void. His energy and work ethic will keep him in the mix early, while his ability to create spacing with his 3-point shot will sustain his minutes. -- Biancardi

Kohl Rosario, G, Kansas (Fr.)

Rosario was a late addition to the Kansas roster, committing to the Jayhawks in June after a stellar spring and a reclassification into the 2025 class. There has been a steady stream of positive buzz about Rosario since the summer. He could be in line for a starting spot in Lawrence. -- Borzello

Ilias Kamardine, G, Ole Miss (Intl.)

The French guard turned 22 this month and is equipped to make an immediate impact for Chris Beard. Kamardine is the former MVP of the FIBA U20 EuroBasket in 2023 and played in France's top division last season, shooting better than 36% from 3. -- Borzello

Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois (Fr.)

There is a high level of intrigue around Wagler. He was an unranked recruit coming out of high school but possesses advanced feel offensively and can shoot well. -- Borzello

Sananda Fru, C, Louisville (Intl.)

International prospects don't come much more experienced than Fru, who has already played four seasons in Germany's top division. He averaged 12.6 points and 6.2 rebounds last season for Loewen Braunschweig and has represented Germany at the U20 level. He'll fight for a starting job immediately. -- Borzello

Amani Hansberry, F, Virginia Tech (T)

Coach Mike Young has been effusive in his praise of Hansberry, who played at Illinois and West Virginia the past two seasons. Hansberry has caused matchup issues up front dating back to high school, given his vision, passing ability and face-up touch. He could be an ideal fit for Young's offense. -- Borzello

Roman Siulepa, G/F (Intl.), and Omari Witherspoon, G (Fr.), Pittsburgh

Jeff Capel will have to rely heavily on Siulepa and Witherspoon from the opening tip of the season. Siulepa, an Australia native, was one of the most productive players at this summer's U19 World Cup, averaging 18.9 points and 8.1 rebounds -- including 19 and 12 against the United States. Witherspoon should be the next productive freshman guard for Capel. He is strong, physical and can make plays at both ends. -- Borzello

Tre Singleton, F, Northwestern (Fr.)

Northwestern was Singleton's first high-major offer, and coach Chris Collins' early work might pay off quickly. Singleton could slot into the Wildcats' starting lineup right off the bat, and the forward's versatile skill set should be an asset. -- Borzello

Derek Dixon, G, North Carolina (Fr.)

Carolina brought in Kyan Evans from Colorado State to run the point, but Dixon will see plenty of minutes running the show, too. He was a shotmaker and winner at the high school level, and scouts have been impressed by his early maturity. -- Borzello

Ivan Kharchenkov, F, Arizona (Intl.)

Kharchenkov became the youngest player in Bundesliga history when he made his debut for Bayern Munich in 2022, less than two months after turning 16. Now 19, Kharchenkov didn't commit to Arizona until early July but will fight for a starting spot on the wing. -- Borzello

Aidan Mahaney, G, UC Santa Barbara (T)

Mahaney earned first-team All-WCC honors in each of his two seasons at Saint Mary's before transferring to UConn and never hitting his stride. Now he is back on the West Coast for Joe Pasternack's team -- and there is a viable argument that he is the best player in the Big West. -- Borzello

Kelvin Odih, G, St. John's (Fr.)

There may not be room in the starting lineup for Odih as a freshman, given the incredible transfer class Rick Pitino brought to Queens, but keep an eye on him. Odih fits Pitino's system and will make the most of his minutes, especially defensively and in transition. -- Borzello

Joshua Lewis, F, Louisiana (Fr.)

Lewis originally committed to South Florida but reopened his recruitment following the tragic death of coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, then decommitted from Iowa after Fran McCaffery was fired last March. After entertaining high-major interest, he ultimately opted to play for first-year coach Quannas White in the Sun Belt. The 6-foot-7 forward is a big-time athlete who should make an immediate impact. -- Borzello

Amon Dörries, C, Bucknell (Intl.)

Dorries is an intriguing player for the Patriot League. He has played professionally in Germany for a couple of years and also represented the country at the U16, U18 and U19 levels. He is 6-foot-11 with skill, and he has shown some touch from the perimeter. -- Borzello

Christian Jones, G, Siena (Fr.)

Jones played for big-name programs on both the high school and AAU circuits, serving as the starting point guard at Hillcrest Prep (Arizona) and for JL3 Elite in the EYBL. He loves to push the pace with the ball in his hands and is difficult to keep out of the paint. -- Borzello