Sizing up overreactions, big questions from divisional round: Why do the Bills keep falling short?

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  • Dan Graziano

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    Dan Graziano

    senior NFL national reporter

      Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
  • Ben Solak

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    Ben Solak

    ESPN

      Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

Jan 17, 2026, 09:00 PM ET

The NFL divisional round began with an incredible game in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos went to overtime, but the Broncos emerged on top after hitting a 23-yard field goal to win it in the extra frame. Three more games are on deck, starting with 49ers-Seahawks.

What are the main lessons and takeaways from each divisional round matchup, and what's next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the second round and look forward from all angles. For each divisional round game, Solak is answering one big remaining question and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.

Let's jump in, making sense of the Bills' playoff woes. And we will continue to react to games as they happen over the course of the weekend.

Broncos 33, Bills 30

The lingering question: Why do the Bills keep losing in the postseason?

I have no idea. What is there to say? The Bills turned the football over five times, and no team that turns the ball over five teams deserves to be in the game at all. Josh Allen's end-of-half fumble to let the Broncos go up 20-10 was an inexcusable mistake. He was stripped to start the second half to give Denver an even bigger lead. He threw a pick immediately off a key defensive takeaway.

It felt like Allen was digging the hole, and then as always, Allen was the one to pull the Bills back out. But there were too many misses. Allen failed to connect with Khalil Shakir on a third-and-8 screen in the red zone that could have allowed him to score, and he missed an open Dawson Knox at the end of regulation on a throw that could have walked the game off. Allen was simultaneously one of the biggest reasons the Bills were still in that game, while also being one of the biggest reasons they fell short.

The Bills have now made it to seven consecutive postseasons with Allen at the helm, which means they've suffered seven postseason losses. There's really no unifying factor on the field, though. Wide receiver talent was a big deal in this game; Allen was 0-for-9 throwing 20-plus yards downfield, and downfield production is often a receiver stat. The pass rush has been an issue and was again in this game; Nix was pressured on 20% of his dropbacks, and the Bills needed to send blitzes to get home. Defensive back depth was also a big deal; two of Nix's three touchdowns came targeting backup defensive backs.

Still, when you've lost seven playoff games, there are some obvious unifying factors -- coach Sean McDermott, GM Brandon Beane and Allen. The Bills' triumvirate has been in place for the better part of a decade and has yet to get over the hump. Whether fair or unfair, the buck stops at the top, and the fact that the Bills have failed to make a Super Bowl in Allen's tenure despite seven postseason appearances is an enormous failure.

If the Bills made changes, I'd totally get it. If they didn't, I'd totally get it, too. They've been so close so many times. What a devastating loss. -- Solak

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