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Mar 3, 2026, 10:00 AM ET
There are just 12 days until the 68 teams with a chance to win the national championship are officially set for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament.
But are there actually 68 teams -- of the 365 across Division I men's college basketball -- that can win a title?
Probably not.
We asked our college basketball experts Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf to continue the ESPN tradition of selecting the eight teams that have the best chance to claim the national title -- while also eliminating the other 357 from consideration.
Every Division I men's college basketball team, listed alphabetically, has been split into four different categories: "ineligible," "no clear path," "near misses" and "could win it all." Those eight in that final category? They have the best chance to lift the trophy in Indianapolis on April 6.
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The near misses | The eight contenders
The 5 ineligible teams
Coppin State Eagles
Le Moyne Dolphins
Mercyhurst Lakers
New Haven Chargers
West Georgia Wolves
The 334 teams with no clear path
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Air Force Falcons
Akron Zips
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Alabama State Hornets
UAlbany Great Danes
Alcorn State Braves
American University Eagles
App State Mountaineers
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Army Black Knights
Auburn Tigers
Austin Peay Governors
Ball State Cardinals
Baylor Bears
Bellarmine Knights
Belmont Bruins
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Binghamton Bearcats
Boise State Broncos
Boston College Eagles
Boston University Terriers
Bowling Green Falcons
Bradley Braves
Brown Bears
Bryant Bulldogs
Bucknell Bison
Buffalo Bulls
Butler Bulldogs
Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
Cal State Fullerton Titans
Cal State Northridge Matadors
California Baptist Lancers
California Golden Bears
Campbell Fighting Camels
Canisius Golden Griffins
Central Arkansas Bears
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
Central Michigan Chippewas
Charleston Cougars
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
Charlotte 49ers
Chattanooga Mocs
Chicago State Cougars
Cincinnati Bearcats
Clemson Tigers
Cleveland State Vikings
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Colgate Raiders
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado State Rams
Columbia Lions
Cornell Big Red
Creighton Bluejays
Dartmouth Big Green
Davidson Wildcats
Dayton Flyers
Delaware Blue Hens
Delaware State Hornets
Denver Pioneers
DePaul Blue Demons
Detroit Mercy Titans
Drake Bulldogs
Drexel Dragons
Duquesne Dukes
East Carolina Pirates
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
East Texas A&M Lions
Eastern Illinois Panthers
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Washington Eagles
Elon Phoenix
Evansville Purple Aces
Fairfield Stags
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Florida A&M Rattlers
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Florida International Panthers
Florida State Seminoles
Fordham Rams
Fresno State Bulldogs
Furman Paladins
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
George Mason Patriots
George Washington Revolutionaries
Georgetown Hoyas
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Southern Eagles
Georgia State Panthers
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Grambling Tigers
Grand Canyon Lopes
Green Bay Phoenix
Hampton Pirates
Harvard Crimson
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
High Point Panthers
Hofstra Pride
Holy Cross Crusaders
Houston Christian Huskies
Howard Bison
Idaho State Bengals
Idaho Vandals
Illinois State Redbirds
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana State Sycamores
Iona Gaels
Iowa Hawkeyes
IU Indianapolis Jaguars
Jackson State Tigers
Jacksonville Dolphins
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
James Madison Dukes
Kansas City Roos
Kansas State Wildcats
Kennesaw State Owls
Kent State Golden Flashes
La Salle Explorers
Lafayette Leopards
Lamar Cardinals
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Liberty Flames
Lindenwood Lions
Lipscomb Bisons
Little Rock Trojans
Long Beach State Beach
Long Island University Sharks
Longwood Lancers
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
Loyola Marymount Lions
LSU Tigers
Maine Black Bears
Manhattan Jaspers
Marist Red Foxes
Marquette Golden Eagles
Marshall Thundering Herd
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
Maryland Terrapins
Massachusetts Minutemen
McNeese Cowboys
Memphis Tigers
Mercer Bears
Merrimack Warriors
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Miami Hurricanes
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Milwaukee Panthers
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Missouri State Bears
Missouri Tigers
Monmouth Hawks
Montana Grizzlies
Montana State Bobcats
Morehead State Eagles
Morgan State Bears
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Murray State Racers
Navy Midshipmen
NC State Wolfpack
Nevada Wolf Pack
New Hampshire Wildcats
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico State Aggies
New Orleans Privateers
Niagara Purple Eagles
Nicholls Colonels
NJIT Highlanders
Norfolk State Spartans
North Alabama Lions
North Carolina A&T Aggies
North Carolina Central Eagles
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota State Bison
North Florida Ospreys
North Texas Mean Green
Northeastern Huskies
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Northern Colorado Bears
Northern Illinois Huskies
Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Kentucky Norse
Northwestern State Demons
Northwestern Wildcats
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Old Dominion Monarchs
Ole Miss Rebels
Omaha Mavericks
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Pacific Tigers
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn Quakers
Pepperdine Waves
Pittsburgh Panthers
Portland Pilots
Portland State Vikings
Prairie View A&M Panthers
Presbyterian Blue Hose
Princeton Tigers
Providence Friars
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Queens University Royals
Quinnipiac Bobcats
Radford Highlanders
Rhode Island Rams
Rice Owls
Richmond Spiders
Rider Broncs
Robert Morris Colonials
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sacramento State Hornets
Sacred Heart Pioneers
Saint Francis Red Flash
Saint Joseph's Hawks
Saint Mary's Gaels
Saint Peter's Peacocks
Sam Houston Bearkats
Samford Bulldogs
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego Toreros
San Francisco Dons
San José State Spartans
Santa Clara Broncos
SE Louisiana Lions
Seattle U Redhawks
Seton Hall Pirates
Siena Saints
SIU Edwardsville Cougars
SMU Mustangs
South Alabama Jaguars
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina State Bulldogs
South Carolina Upstate Spartans
South Dakota Coyotes
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
South Florida Bulls
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Southern Illinois Salukis
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
Southern Jaguars
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
Stanford Cardinal
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stetson Hatters
Stonehill Skyhawks
Stony Brook Seawolves
Syracuse Orange
Tarleton State Texans
TCU Horned Frogs
Temple Owls
Tennessee State Tigers
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Texas Longhorns
Texas Southern Tigers
Texas State Bobcats
The Citadel Bulldogs
Toledo Rockets
Towson Tigers
Troy Trojans
Tulane Green Wave
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
UAB Blazers
UC Davis Aggies
UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Riverside Highlanders
UC San Diego Tritons
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UCF Knights
UCLA Bruins
UIC Flames
UL Monroe Warhawks
UMass Lowell River Hawks
UMBC Retrievers
UNC Asheville Bulldogs
UNC Greensboro Spartans
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNLV Rebels
USC Trojans
UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Martin Skyhawks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Utah State Aggies
Utah Tech Trailblazers
Utah Utes
Utah Valley Wolverines
UTEP Miners
UTSA Roadrunners
Valparaiso Beacons
VCU Rams
Vermont Catamounts
Villanova Wildcats
Virginia Tech Hokies
VMI Keydets
Wagner Seahawks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Weber State Wildcats
West Virginia Mountaineers
Western Carolina Catamounts
Western Illinois Leathernecks
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Michigan Broncos
Wichita State Shockers
William & Mary Tribe
Winthrop Eagles
Wofford Terriers
Wright State Raiders
Wyoming Cowboys
Xavier Musketeers
Yale Bulldogs
Youngstown State Penguins
The 18 near misses
Alabama Crimson Tide
Arkansas Razorbacks
BYU Cougars
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Kansas Jayhawks
Kentucky Wildcats
Louisville Cardinals
Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Purdue Boilermakers
St. John's Red Storm
Saint Louis Billikens
Tennessee Volunteers
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Vanderbilt Commodores
Virginia Cavaliers
Wisconsin Badgers
The 8 that could win it all
During Big 12 media day in Kansas City, Missouri, in October, coach Tommy Lloyd seemed baffled by the lack of questions directed his way. "That's it? No more questions? OK," Lloyd said to the quiet room before he and his Arizona players exited the stage. At the time, the Wildcats were picked to finish fourth in the Big 12, behind Kansas, BYU and Texas Tech. They weren't the biggest storyline in the league. AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, a renewed Houston squad fresh off a national runner-up finish and the return of All-American JT Toppin to the Red Raiders were all bigger stories then.
Fast forward to now: Arizona has lost just two games -- on the road to a short-handed Jayhawks squad and in overtime at home to a fully healthy Texas Tech team -- since starting the season 23-0. Today's NIL climate has turned head coaches into general managers. Lloyd has embraced his role as a head coach and a general manager in the NIL era to build this team. Freshmen Brayden Burries and Koa Peat are projected first-round picks in June's NBA draft. Jaden Bradley is the veteran who has held this group together. Motiejus Krivas has become an All-Big 12 talent after missing most of last season due to injury. And Tobe Awaka is one of the top reserves in America.
That's real depth, and it has the Wildcats as one of the nation's best defensive squads (third in adjusted efficiency) as well as an offensive juggernaut that is averaging 87.2 points per game (13th in the country). This group also has wins over Florida, UConn, Alabama and Houston -- four other teams that could cut down the nets in April. It wouldn't be a surprise if Arizona captured its first national title in nearly 30 years. -- Medcalf
1:19
Arizona claims Big 12 regular-season title after beating Iowa State
Arizona defeats Iowa State in a commanding victory to secure the Big 12 regular-season title.
In 2024-25, Duke's Cooper Flagg put together one of the most prolific seasons in recent college basketball history, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.4 blocks and 39% from beyond the arc to capture the Wooden Award. He took his team to the Final Four.
Cameron Boozer could be even better.
Boozer (22.5 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 40% from beyond the arc) is a 6-foot-9, 250-pound force leading a Blue Devils team that has the best defense in America and also scores 83 points a game. His offensive rating on KenPom is 134.3, higher than Flagg's (123) from last season.
Boozer also is supported by a better defensive team and a strong cast of returners, as Patrick Ngongba II (10.7 PPG, 1.1 BPG), Isaiah Evans (14.7 PPG) and Caleb Foster (8.7 PPG, 42% from beyond the arc) are all better than they were a season ago. Maliq Brown can guard any player Duke encounters. Boozer's twin brother, Cayden Boozer, leads a collection of young players who've contributed too.
The Blue Devils have more depth, experience and defensive prowess this season. And yes, they might also have a Wooden Award winner who surpasses last season's recipient. -- Medcalf
The Gators didn't lose their third game of the 2024-25 campaign until Feb. 1 (to Tennessee). But Todd Golden's squad needed a longer runway this season to reach its potential, after losing its starting backcourt -- including Final Four Most Outstanding Player Walter Clayton Jr. -- from that title team. The new backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland weren't at the same level, and the reigning national champions lost their third game on Dec. 2 (to Duke).
Yet, the Gators look just as dangerous now as last season's group. They haven't lost a game since Jan. 24. During that nine-game winning streak, they've been America's best team (eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency, first in adjusted defensive efficiency), according to BartTorvik.
Thomas Haugh is a projected lottery pick and an All-America contender. Alex Condon is a strong veteran presence. Rueben Chinyelu is one of the top defensive players in the country. And that frontcourt has been Florida's stabilizer this season.
The Lee-Fland backcourt is now an asset too. Lee has produced 52 assists and just 20 turnovers across the winning streak, while Fland has averaged 12.2 points and collected 20 steals. The team also has held opponents to an impressive 89.7 points per 100 possessions with Fland and Lee on the court together, per EvanMiya.
Florida is hitting all of the right notes at the right moment as it prepares to defend its crown. -- Medcalf
2:35
Are No. 7 Florida's big men the best in the country?
Todd Golden describes the growth of the Gators' dominant front court as they continue to wear down opponents due to their size, strength and skill after claiming the SEC title.
Through the first 25 games, Houston looked as strong a title contender as any team in college basketball. Then the Cougars lost three in a row in the second half of February, raising questions about whether they even belonged in this category. But their inclusion here is a bet on their guards, on their defensive potential -- and on Kelvin Sampson.
Defensively, this group isn't as suffocating as some previous iterations of Sampson-coached teams, but it still has the ability to shut opponents down and still forces turnovers at a higher rate than any other team in the Big 12. Offensively, Houston doesn't have the interior presence J'Wan Roberts provided for multiple seasons.
What these Cougars do have, however, is one of the elite shotmaking and playmaking perimeter trios in the country. Kingston Flemings is a future top-10 draft pick, and he has established himself as a high-level freshman capable of carrying the offense. Emanuel Sharp is a terrific perimeter shooter with plenty of big-game experience on his résumé. And then there's Milos Uzan, who might be the key to a deep run. Uzan hasn't been as consistent as he was in Big 12 play a season ago, but he has been shooting the ball incredibly well lately and is coming off a 26-point performance over the weekend.
Houston might have more question marks than in the past couple of campaigns, but we're not betting against Sampson, and we're not betting against a backcourt as good as this one. -- Borzello
The Illini were the last to make it into this group, over a short list that also included St. John's, Arkansas and Alabama. Admittedly, we initially tried to pick a team ranked outside the top 10 in predictive metrics or off the top three lines in projected brackets, but then the Red Storm and the Razorbacks each lost a game by more than 30 points, which felt like disqualifying defeats. While we still have questions about Illinois, we trust its defense and consistency a bit more than that of the Crimson Tide's.
Illinois has the best offense in the country and one of the most efficient offenses in the past 30 years. The Illini are heavily reliant on the 3-point shot, but they have so many different ways to beat you at that end of the floor. There's the playmaking of Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, the versatility of David Mirkovic, the scoring ability of Andrej Stojakovic, the shooting of Jake Davis and Ben Humrichous, and the inside-outside game of 7-footers Tomislav Ivisic and Zvonimir Ivisic.
The Illini have lost four of their past six games entering the week -- but three of those came in overtime, and the fourth was to Michigan. Despite those defeats, they're still fifth in the country in adjusted efficiency margin at Torvik for the month of February, with a defensive ranking in the top 25 that is an improvement on their seasonlong numbers.
The big question is whether they can guard consistently against high-level competition for six straight games in the NCAA tournament. They haven't shown they're able to do that since their schedule stiffened, but with all that firepower on the offensive end, Brad Underwood's team might also simply be able to outscore teams to get to the end. -- Borzello
The Cyclones haven't made justifying their inclusion here easy on us. In the six games before Monday's loss to Arizona, they were 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Coupled with Saturday's lackluster appearance in a 82-73 home loss to a short-handed Texas Tech team, there are concerns about this group. For every great moment they've had this season -- wins over St. John's, Purdue, Kansas and Houston -- they've also lost to TCU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and BYU, with the latter two teams also missing two of their best players at the time.
But let's focus on the ceiling here, because the ceiling is high for a T.J. Otzelberger-led squad that has been one of America's best defensive teams all season and features a trio few opponents can match.
Tamin Lipsey battled multiple injuries last season but is healthy now and is, according to his coach, the best point guard in the country. Lipsey is a great passer and a critical defender for this crew that was firmly in the mix for the Big 12 title before its latest downturn. Joshua Jefferson is a legitimate national player of the year contender, and Milan Momcilovic is the best 3-point shooter in the country. Those are all good things for a team that hasn't been to the Final Four since 1944.
It's not exactly clear which Iowa State will show up in the NCAA tournament. It is fair, however, to assume that the best version of this program can compete with any opponent in the field. The Cyclones have proved that much with their best days this season. -- Medcalf
Michigan might no longer be the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets in Indianapolis after its Feb. 21 loss to Duke in Washington, D.C. But the Wolverines still might be at the top of the first tier of contenders. They entered the week as the only team in the country to rank in the top five in offensive and defensive rating at KenPom, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.5 points with 10 wins coming by at least 30 points.
The headline for Dusty May's team is a supersize frontcourt built last spring via the transfer portal. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara all played the center spot at their previous schools, but they have somehow been able to adjust their games to fit together on the court at the same time. They simply overwhelm opponents at both ends of the floor. What separates Michigan, however, is that despite the size advantage, they're also able to outrun teams down the floor and outshoot teams from the perimeter. It's a combination rarely seen in college basketball.
Whether Michigan can ultimately lift the trophy in early April will be determined by its guard play, particularly after the season-ending injury to backup guard L.J. Cason. Elliot Cadeau has made dramatic improvements as a shooter and a decision-maker since transferring from North Carolina after last season, while Trey McKenney has become an impact player off the bench. Nimari Burnett and Roddy Gayle Jr. are veteran two-way players. But in Michigan's two losses this season, those guards struggled to make shots from the perimeter -- 6-of-22 combined from 3 against Wisconsin and 2-of-14 versus Duke -- and stay in front of opposing guards.
When the Wolverines are playing with pace, making shots and crashing the glass, though? There's not a team in the country that can handle them. -- Borzello
If there was any doubt about UConn's inclusion here, the Huskies made sure to solidify their position with an eye-popping 72-40 win over St. John's on Wednesday in one of the most impressive performances we've seen from any team this season.
It hasn't been smooth sailing for Dan Hurley's team, though. There have been a variety of injuries, less-than-convincing wins over inferior Big East teams and disappointing losses to Creighton and St. John's (on Feb. 6). But there's no denying this team's ceiling, as we saw in its more recent matchup with the Red Storm.
UConn has one of the best two-way point guards in the country in Silas Demary Jr. In Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins, the Huskies have a shotmaking trio matched by very few teams. There's plenty of depth. And Hurley has a top-10 defense, one that was among the very best in America for the first three months of the season.
There are two keys moving forward for UConn: Tarris Reed Jr. and the Huskies' 3-point shooting. Reed played like one of the best big men in the country against St. John's last week, and he has the potential to be a dominant paint presence on a nightly basis. Meanwhile, UConn's offense took a noticeable step forward when its perimeter shots started falling. The Huskies made double-figure 3s six times in a seven-game stretch from Jan. 27 to Feb. 18; before that, they had hit that mark just four times. They are now the best 3-shooting team in the Big East.
Don't discount UConn's championship pedigree, either. The Huskies have a coaching staff and multiple players who have done it before -- twice. That matters in March. -- Borzello
