The Bengals' defense is the worst ... ever?!? Six wild NFL trends entering Week 13

As we enter Week 13 of the 2025 NFL season, a few interesting trends are beginning to emerge -- starting with one team playing on Thanksgiving night. The Bengals face the Ravens on Thursday, and they are currently allowing the league's most points per game (32.7) and yards per game (415.8). But where does this defense rank historically?

I used my DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) stats, which are explained further here, to find out. I reran every season since 1978 to see what DVOA would have looked like as of Week 13 in the past. Teams are rated solely based on what they did through 11 or 12 games, and opponent adjustments are based only on opponents through 11 or 12 games.

The numbers showed that the 2025 season has two historically bad defenses in the Bengals and Giants and two more teams whose underlying stats don't match the win-loss records in the Patriots and Bears. Two offensive playmakers also stand out, as Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey are on pace to hit records. Let's look at those four teams and two players as things stand right now.

Jump to:
Bengals' bad defense
Giants' bad run defense
Patriots' 10-2 record
Bears' 8-3 record
Smith-Njigba | McCaffrey

The Bengals have the NFL's worst defense through 11 games since 1978

A 48-10 loss to the Vikings in Week 3 was a big sign that all was not right with the Bengals defense. Since then, the Bengals have allowed over 30 points five more times and over 500 yards three times. And when you adjust for the season averages and look at the play-by-play breakdown, DVOA says the Bengals have the worst defense it has ever measured through 11 games. (Note that DVOA represents offensive efficiency, so defensive numbers are worse the higher they get.)

Standard stats also reflect how bad the Bengals have been on defense. They have allowed 6.3 yards per play, which is tied for the worst in the league this season. They are near the bottom of the league with just 10 takeaways. And their 32.7 points allowed per game is the second-worst figure since 1978 for a team through its first 11 games, trailing only the 1981 Baltimore Colts (34.3).

The differentiation between the Bengals and a team like the 1981 Colts is that Cincinnati has done this against an easy schedule of opposing offenses. The Bengals' past schedule ranks 25th based on average offensive DVOA of their opponents. They allowed 502 yards to the Jets in Week 8. The Jets!

It's not working for the Bengals at any level of defense this season. They rank dead last in pass rush win rate and 27th in run stop win rate. It doesn't help that edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, their best defensive player, has played only seven games and has just four sacks. But the Bengals haven't had too many big defensive injuries otherwise. Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt is on injured reserve, but he did play eight games this season. First-round edge rusher Shemar Stewart is also hurt, but he was always going to be developing as a rookie. For the most part, the Bengals have struggled with the players they meant to put on the field this season.

What we can expect: The schedule doesn't get too much harder, so we'll have to see if they can improve things at all. They play Baltimore twice, including Thanksgiving night, but Lamar Jackson doesn't look like he's playing at 100 percent right now. Buffalo is a tough opponent in Week 14, but the Bengals finish up with Miami, Arizona and Cleveland. If they keep getting pelted for 30 points per game, they'll truly deserve the title of "worst defense ever." (The worst full-season defense by DVOA belongs to the 1986 Buccaneers at 24.7%, followed by the 1981 Colts at 24.1%.)

Defense tends to be less consistent and predictive than offense, which might give the Bengals hope that they can put a reasonable unit on the field in 2026. However, seven of the nine teams in the table above still ranked among the bottom 10 defenses the following season, with only the 2020 Dolphins rebounding to above average.

The Giants have the second-worst run defense through 12 games since 1978

This one is a throwback to my look at early-season trends after Week 4. At that point, the Giants had the third-worst run defense ever tracked through four games. They've been up and down since then, but they gave up 219 yards and two touchdowns to Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs on just 15 carries in Week 12. That performance means they are now the worst run defense tracked by DVOA through 12 games in over 45 years -- and the second worst in the history of the database.

The Giants' problems on the ground started early, with Washington's Jacory Croskey-Merritt running for 82 yards on just 10 carries in Week 1. They reached their nadir in Week 8 against the Eagles, when Saquon Barkley had 150 yards on 14 carries and Tank Bigsby had 104 yards on nine carries in his relief.

The Giants have allowed a remarkable 6.0 yards per carry when we remove scrambles, kneel-downs and aborted plays. That's the highest figure in modern NFL history by half a yard. The 2002 Chargers allowed 5.5 yards per carry through their first 12 games, but the NFL as a whole allowed 4.5 yards per carry that season. This season, the league average is lower at 4.3.

The failure to stop the run comes across all three levels of the New York defense. It is currently 29th in run stop win rate, but the real damage comes from long runs. The Giants are last in second-level yards per carry (gains that come 5 to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and open-field yards per carry (gains that come 11 or more yards past the line of scrimmage).

What we can expect: New York's run defense is probably going to look better over the last few weeks because the Giants play the second-easiest remaining schedule of opposing run offenses. On Monday night, they get the Patriots, who are just 28th in run offense DVOA. The Raiders, the Giants' opponent in Week 17, rank last. But while the yards allowed per carry might go down over the final five games, DVOA will correct for that by adjusting for opponent.

The worst run defense DVOA over a full season belongs to the 1983 Oilers at 20.6%. Usually, like most stats, run defense DVOA is going to get drawn toward average with a larger sample size. But the Oilers were even worse in their final four games than they were in their first 12, so the Giants would have to be worse than that for the rest of the season to set a new record for the bad run defense. And they probably won't be that bad under new defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen.

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The Patriots have the second-worst DVOA for a 10-2 team since 1978

The Patriots are one of the best stories in the NFL this year. They currently hold the top spot in the AFC playoff race, having already won more games in 2025 than they did in 2023 and 2024 combined. So it's a bit disappointing that the underlying stats say the Pats are not even close to being the best team in the league. In fact, DVOA has them 17th with a below-average rating. The only other 10-2 team to have a below-average DVOA was the 2022 Vikings. That team lost in the wild-card round.

Quarterback Drake Maye is truly an MVP candidate, and the Patriots rank fifth in pass offense DVOA. However, they are just 28th in rushing offense. They are also way down at 27th on defense and 17th on special teams. And as you can probably guess, much of the gap between standard stats and DVOA for the Patriots is due to opponent adjustments. New England has played a remarkably easy schedule so far this season, particularly when it comes to opposing offenses. The average Pats opponent so far has a DVOA of minus-15.0%, which would be the easiest schedule ever measured. If the average Patriots opponent was ranked among NFL teams, it would rank 25th in DVOA.

However, there's more than just the schedule here. The Patriots have had some good luck and are 5-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown. A projection based on just points scored and allowed, without adjusting for the schedule, would give them an expectation of just 8.3 wins. The Patriots have also been very dependent on explosive plays, especially when they beat the Buccaneers in Week 10. Producing those kinds of plays is less predictive than simply continuously moving the chains. New England is seventh in yards per play but 13th in success rate.

What we can expect: The rest of the Patriots' schedule gets a little harder, including a rematch with the Bills (at home) and a game in Baltimore. So their final schedule strength would currently be the third easiest ever rather than the easiest. It's certainly possible that they will play better and win by larger margins in their remaining games, including this week's "Monday Night Football" game against the Giants.

However, the Patriots have been very healthy this season, and that has changed in the past couple of weeks. They're going to have to play the next few games without some of their top players, including rookie left tackle Will Campbell (knee) and veteran defensive tackle Milton Williams (ankle).

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The good news is that some of the other teams with low DVOA ratings at 10-2 improved over the last few games and went on significant playoff runs. That includes a team that Patriots fans know well: their 2003 squad, which was dragged down in all metrics by a 31-0 loss to the Bills in Week 1 but ended up winning the Super Bowl.

The Bears have the worst DVOA for an 8-3 team since 1978

After the team went 5-12 in 2024, new coach Ben Johnson has worked wonders with the Bears' offense, helping Chicago to an 8-3 record and first place in the NFC North. Nothing can take away the wins, but DVOA suggests that the Bears' success might be a mirage. Chicago currently ranks just 22nd in DVOA and has the lowest DVOA ever measured for an 8-3 team. The record was previously held by another Chicago team: the 2010 squad that lost to Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game.

Chicago might be eighth in points scored per game (26.3), but DVOA puts the offense closer to average at 14th. The defense ranks 25th and the special teams unit ranks 22nd. Remarkably, the Bears are 8-3 despite being outscored by opponents on the season (292-289). Chicago is currently 6-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown, including all four games in its current streak of four straight wins.

Bears fans will point out that the team looks a lot better in points scored and allowed without the 52-21 loss to Detroit in Week 2 rolled in. However, DVOA doesn't think that was the only really bad game for the 2025 Bears. They have three games this season with DVOA under minus-50% -- the Week 2 loss to Detroit, a narrow Week 4 win over the Raiders and the Week 8 loss to the Ravens. Only Las Vegas (five) and Tennessee (four) have more games below minus-50% this season.

As with the Patriots, schedule strength is also playing a big role in Chicago's low DVOA rating. The Bears have played the second-easiest schedule so far this season. The average past Bears opponent has a DVOA of minus-9.9%. If their average opponent was ranked among NFL teams, it would rank 23rd.

What we can expect: Even the worst 8-3 teams usually make it to the postseason. But with so many competitive rosters in the NFC North and NFC West, it's going to be harder for this Bears team. ESPN's Football Power Index simulations have them making the playoffs 62% of the time, which ranks eighth in the NFC. The Bears might end up on the outside looking in while a team from the NFC South with a worse record is playing in January.

It doesn't help that the Bears' schedule is much harder in the final six weeks. That starts with the Eagles on Friday, but the Bears also still have both of their games against Green Bay, a trip to San Francisco and a rematch with Detroit (at home) to end the season. Even if the Bears do make the playoffs, it's very unlikely they will win the Lombardi Trophy. Only one team on our list made it to the Super Bowl: the 2003 Panthers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace to break the NFL record for receiving yards in a season

Smith-Njigba is having a fantastic season for the Seahawks. In fact, the third-year wide receiver already broke the Seahawks record for receiving yards in a season with six games remaining. And with 1,313 yards in 11 games, JSN is on pace for 2,029 receiving yards. If he can get there, he would break Calvin Johnson's record for receiving yards and become the first player to make it to 2,000 receiving yards in one season.

Smith-Njigba's total so far is the second highest since 1978 for any receiver in his team's first 11 games. Only Tyreek Hill had more yards at this point in a season.

I left out receivers from before 1978 here because they played shorter seasons. But there's one season not in our table worth mentioning, and that is Josh Gordon in 2013. He had an incredible 1,400 yards in his first 11 games that season, but he was suspended for the first two games of the season and therefore had only three games left at that point.

What we can expect: Smith-Njigba needs 108.6 yards per game to set the record. Seattle plays a slightly above-average schedule of opposing pass defenses the rest of the way, with three home games and three matchups on the road. There will be plenty of attention on Seattle's rematch with the Rams, and JSN had 105 yards in the first meeting.

However, the most interesting matchup might be with the Colts. The Colts had a strange trend going where they shut down opposing WR1s but were getting destroyed by WR2s. Since they traded for cornerback Sauce Gardner, their strategy in coverage has changed, though. So will Gardner be able to somewhat shutdown Smith-Njigba? Or will JSN have a big game the way Drake London did against the Colts a few weeks ago?

Christian McCaffrey is on pace to break the NFL record for receiving yards in a season by a RB

McCaffrey is currently leading the NFL in carries and receptions, though part of that is the fact that he has played 12 games while most of the league has played 11. The talented 49ers running back has 785 receiving yards, which is the fourth-highest total ever through a team's first 12 games. That puts him on pace to break Marshall Faulk's running back record of 1,048 receiving yards, set with the Greatest Show on Turf Rams of 1999. Note that Faulk set the record in 1999 with a big flourish at the end, including 204 receiving yards on 12 catches against Chicago in Week 16.

What we can expect: McCaffrey needs 52.8 receiving yards per game the rest of the way to break Faulk's record. He has slowed down a little in the past couple of weeks, with just 40 receiving yards against Arizona in Week 11 and then 53 on Monday night against Carolina. Three of San Francisco's final five opponents are below average in DVOA against running backs as receivers: Seattle, Chicago and Tennessee (though Tennessee doesn't allow a lot of raw receiving yardage to running backs).

Of course, McCaffrey is used so differently than other running backs that it might not matter how these teams have covered RBs in the past. The final 49ers game comes against the Seahawks, and the only defense that faces more passes to running backs than the Seahawks is the 49ers themselves.