Ward, McMillan and others primed to follow path of 2024 breakouts

It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.

"Who is this year's version of [enter breakout player from last season]?"

It's not a simple question to answer because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall have!

The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2024's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar profile as they enter 2025. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.

Note that this is not my way of definitively predicting that these players will break out this season. Again, it's simply the players positioned to do so as a product of landing in a situation similar to those who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.

This season's Jayden Daniels/Bo Nix: Cameron Ward

Daniels and Nix were fantasy starters as rookies.

Daniels and Nix didn't enter their rookie season with especially notable supporting casts, but that didn't stop either from using a combination of terrific passing and rushing production en route to a top-10 fantasy campaign.

Similarly, Ward -- the No. 1 pick in April's draft -- doesn't have an especially impressive group around him. He'll need to be the rising tide that lifts all boats (very possible considering he tossed a class-high 39 TDs and posted a 88.7 QBR at Miami last season) while also contributing with his legs. Ward certainly won't be confused for an elite scrambler such as Daniels, but he averaged a ridiculous 9.1 yards per carry last season and could rival Nix's 430 rushing yards as a rookie. If Ward proves the real deal, QB1 fantasy production is within the range of outcomes.

Other candidates: Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe, Tyler Shough

This season's Baker Mayfield: Bryce Young

Mayfield, the No. 1 pick in 2018, was nearing the bust label before finally breaking out with his first QB1 season.

Mayfield was nowhere close to the fantasy radar during his first six NFL seasons (18th or lower in points per game in all six), but he exploded to a fourth-place finish in 2024. Young is much younger (entering his third season), so while this might be a bit premature, we did see some signs of a potential breakout late in 2024. After struggling badly as a rookie and being benched early last season, Young averaged 18.0 fantasy points from Week 8 on, which would've ranked 10th over the full season. One reason for the leap forward was a big boost in rushing (208 yards and five TDs in his final eight games), which was also something we saw from Mayfield last season (career high 378 yards and three TDs). With an upgraded supporting cast and Mayfield's old coach (Dave Canales), Young is well positioned to make a big jump.

Other candidates: Anthony Richardson Sr.

This season's Sam Darnold: J.J. McCarthy

Darnold took advantage of a great supporting cast in Minnesota en route to a QB1 fantasy campaign.

OK, this comp is kind of a layup, but hear me out. Darnold is out and McCarthy is in as the starting quarterback for a Kevin O'Connell offense loaded with targets (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) that helped Darnold and Kirk Cousins to top-12 fantasy campaigns (in points per game) during each of O'Connell's three seasons in Minnesota. McCarthy -- the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft -- is an unknown after missing his entire rookie campaign because of a knee injury, but it's not ridiculous to think he'll be an immediate improvement on Darnold, who had struggled (often badly) during his first six NFL seasons prior to tossing 35 TDs in 2024.

This season's Chase Brown: Isiah Pacheco

Brown was a veteran mid/late-round flier who emerged as the lead back in a good offense and, in turn, a fantasy RB1.

This one was tougher than expected, but based on his team, depth chart competition and ADP, Pacheco seems like the best fit. The fourth-year back has already been a fantasy-relevant player (14.2 fantasy points per game over a 32-game period starting midway through his rookie season), but he missed Weeks 3-12 last season because of injury and was a nonfactor upon his return (8.8 touches per game and zero TDs). Of course, now that he's healthy and still in his prime at age 26, a rebound is very possible, especially in a good offense with Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, Carson Steele and seventh-round rookie Brashard Smith his competition for work. There's enough upside here to make Pacheco well worth the midround investment.

Other candidates: Javonte Williams, Jaylen Warren, J.K. Dobbins

This season's Bucky Irving: TreVeyon Henderson/RJ Harvey

Irving was not an early-round fantasy pick, but he was the lone RB from the 2024 rookie class who emerged as a viable fantasy RB1.

Henderson and Harvey are being drafted a bit higher than Irving was in 2024 fantasy drafts, but the situations are otherwise pretty darn similar. Much like Irving, both are a bit undersized by NFL lead back standards, which raises concerns about touch ceiling. Additionally, whereas Irving had to overtake Rachaad White in Tampa Bay last season, Henderson (Rhamondre Stevenson) and Harvey (J.K. Dobbins) also face veteran competition. Though it took a month to cement himself as the team's best and most explosive back and despite playing in somewhat of a committee all season long, Irving was able to deliver 10 top-20 fantasy outings in his final 12 games. We very well could see a similar path from Henderson in New England and Harvey in Denver. Both have the skill set to deliver as a rusher and receiver, so fringe RB1 production is certainly a possibility for both.

Other candidates: Kaleb Johnson, Quinshon Judkins (Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton are obvious breakout candidates at RB, but they're going much higher in drafts).

This season's Tyrone Tracy Jr.: Bhayshul Tuten

Tracy was a Day 3 rookie who, after a slow start, took his team's lead back role and emerged as a fantasy starter.

Tracy was a fifth-round flier in last year's draft and, after he played a minimal role behind veteran Devin Singletary early on, he claimed lead back duties in Week 5 and never looked back. Tuten was a fourth-round pick in April's draft and, while he has more competition than Tracy, there's certainly a path to the top of the depth chart. Travis Etienne Jr. is the Jaguars' lead back, but he has struggled the past two seasons and saw a massive dip in usage in 2024 (189 touches after 325 in 2023). Tank Bigsby is also in the mix and showed well as a rusher last season, but he is a nonfactor as a receiver (eight career receptions). All three backs figure to get some run, and it's very possible Tuten -- who was highly efficient at Virginia Tech and has terrific speed (4.32 40-yard dash) and a three-down skill set -- quickly emerges as the best of the bunch. That's enough to make him an appealing late-round flier.

Other candidates: Jaydon Blue, Cam Skattebo

This season's Malik Nabers/Brian Thomas Jr./Ladd McConkey: Tetairoa McMillan

Nabers, Thomas and McConkey were fantasy lineup locks as rookies.

It's extremely unlikely that we'll see three rookies among the top 13 fantasy WRs again this season, but we do have some candidates who could provide big Year 1 numbers. That list starts with McMillan, who gets the edge over Travis Hunter because the latter's offensive numbers could be diminished a bit by also playing defense. McMillan, meanwhile, should easily be able to overtake the likes of Xavier Legette and 34-year-old Adam Thielen as aforementioned Bryce Young's top target. The 6-foot-4 receiver, who has drawn Drake London comps, handled a hefty 34% target share at Arizona last season and has the profile of an elite NFL receiver. Nabers (35%), Thomas (25%) and McConkey (24%) all enjoyed generous target shares during their impressive rookie campaigns, and history suggests McMillan (the eighth pick) will be in that range as well. As long as Young plays competent ball, the sky is the limit for McMillan.

Other candidates: Hunter, Matthew Golden

This season's Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Marvin Harrison Jr.

Smith-Njigba was a 2023 first-round NFL draft pick who enjoyed a breakout second season.

Year 1 expectations were much higher for Harrison than they were for Smith-Njigba, but the reality is that both were first-round NFL draft picks who underwhelmed statistically as rookies. JSN had a good excuse (he played behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett), but he worked his way up the totem pole in 2024 and improved his receiving line from 63-628-4 to 100-1,178-6. Harrison, meanwhile, was his team's immediate No. 1 receiver (No. 2 target) and posted a 62-885-8 line. These two play different roles, but Harrison's job as a perimeter/downfield target provides him with a massive fantasy ceiling. A boost in Year 2 target share and a more efficient connection with Kyler Murray could quickly get the 2024 No. 4 pick into the elite conversation at the wide receiver position.

Other candidates: Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall

This season's Brock Bowers: Colston Loveland

Bowers was a rare tight end lineup lock as a first-round rookie.

Remember when rookie tight ends were all but useless in fantasy? So much for that. After Sam LaPorta was the position's top scorer as a rookie in 2023, Bowers accomplished the same feat last season. That obviously doesn't mean we should expect the same from 10th pick Loveland or 14th pick Tyler Warren, but it certainly suggests the game has changed. Like Bowers, Loveland (and Warren for that matter) has the skill set to emerge as a fantasy star, and while major target competition is a potential detriment in Chicago, it's very possible he'll be a featured target in an offense that could make a big leap under Ben Johnson.

Other candidates: Warren