From unsettled playoff races to home run records: What to watch in MLB's final weekend

We made it to the final weekend of the 2025 MLB regular season.

It has been one wild, fun ride, especially if you're a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers or Seattle Mariners or Cleveland Guardians -- less so, especially recently, if you're a fan of the Detroit Tigers or New York Mets.

What's at stake this weekend? From teams playing out the string to those who are battling for a chance to play October baseball, here are the biggest storylines to follow over the next three days.

Battle for the AL Central: Miracle comeback or all-time collapse?

The American League Central was over ... except it wasn't. The Detroit Tigers finally snapped their eight-game losing streak with a 4-2 win over the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, but, the Guardians have still won 17 of their last 20 games while the Tigers have lost 11 of 13. The teams are now tied for the division lead heading into the final weekend, and Cleveland holds the tiebreaker having won the season series -- putting the Guardians on the verge of the biggest September comeback in MLB history to win a pennant or division (currently 8.5 games when the 1964 Cardinals chased down the Phillies)

Check out this timeline of the AL Central standings and odds for the Tigers and Guardians to win the division, via FanGraphs:

July 8: Cleveland 15.5 games back of Detroit (Tigers: 98.8%, Guardians: 0.1%)

Aug. 25: 12.5 games back (99.9%, 0.0%)

Sept. 1: 10.5 games back (99.8%, 0.2%)

Sept. 10: 9.5 games back (99.9%, 0.1%)

Sept. 17: 4.5 games back (95.4%, 4.6%)

Sept. 20: 1 game back (62.3%, 37.7%)

Sept. 24: Cleveland up one game (18.8%, 81.2%)

Sept. 25: Tied for division lead (34.1%, 65.9%)

The Guardians now lead the division by two games heading into the final weekend after just winning two out of three games against the Tigers and winning six in a row against them. The The Guardians host the Rangers while the Tigers are on the road in Boston, and since the Red Sox have yet to clinch a wild card, that Detroit-Boston series will have a definite playoff feel to it.

But maybe the Tigers can win the final wild card?

The Tigers do at least have a fallback option: They're one game ahead of the Houston Astros, who snapped a five-game losing streak with a win on Thursday, and just one game behind the Red Sox. Detroit owns the tiebreaker over Houston, so the Astros will have to finish with a better record to claim the final wild card and avoid missing their first postseason since 2016. The Astros finish in Anaheim but will be without their top two pitchers in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, who started the final two games of the series against the Athletics.

One important note for the Tigers: Tarik Skubal last started on Tuesday, so he would be ready to go on four days of rest on Sunday, if needed. If the Tigers have already clinched the wild card (or division title) by then, look for them to skip Skubal and have him ready to start Game 1 of the wild-card series on Tuesday.

To make matters even more confusing: The Red Sox, Guardians, Tigers and Astros could all finish 88-74, which is the scenario if the Tigers take two of three against the Red Sox, the Guardians win two of three against Texas, and the Astros sweep the Angels. If that happens, the Astros are out, having lost the season series against all three teams and owning the worst winning percentage against the other three clubs.

Who wins the final National League wild card?

On Sept. 1, the Mets had a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs via FanGraphs, but after going 11-17 in August, they've gone 9-13 in September. Their collapse might not be as disastrous as Detroit's, but the Tigers also don't possess a $340 million payroll. The Mets' second-half woes have allowed the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks to stay alive -- and the Reds are only 12-10 in September, having just lost two to the Pirates. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were seven games under at the trade deadline when they dealt away Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller, essentially punting on the season.

The Mets beat the Cubs on Thursday and the Reds beat the Pirates -- thanks to Noelvi Marte's home run robbery in the ninth to preserve the 2-1 victory -- so the Mets head into Friday at 82-77, the Reds at 81-78 and the Diamondbacks at 80-79. The schedule and probable starters for each team:

Mets at Miami Marlins (Brandon Sproat, Clay Holmes/Sean Manaea, David Peterson)

The Mets haven't officially announced their Saturday and Sunday starters, although Holmes and Manaea have been tag-teaming starts lately while Peterson would be in line to pitch Sunday, although he has hit a wall and has a 12.54 ERA over his past five starts. The Marlins pushed Sandy Alcantara back a day to start Friday's series opener.

Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (Zack Littell, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer)

Hunter Greene started on Wednesday, so he's in line to start the first game of the playoffs if the Reds make it. Quinn Priester is scheduled to start for the Brewers on Friday and, get this, they've won 17 consecutive games he has started.

Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres (Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt)

Gallen had a rocky first four months but is 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA since the beginning of August. How all-in the Padres are will be determined by whether the NL West is still up for grabs.

Finally, there's a good chance the tiebreaker comes into play -- something the Diamondbacks are familiar with after tying with the Mets and Atlanta Braves last season for the final two wild-card spots, only to be eliminated via the tiebreaker rule. This year's scenarios:

• Reds over Mets (won season series 4-2).

• Reds over Diamondbacks (won season series 4-2).

• Mets/Diamondbacks: To be determined. They split the season series and the second tiebreaker is intradivision record, with the Mets currently 24-24 and the Diamondbacks 25-23. The third tiebreaker is intraleague record and the Mets are 58-53 and the Diamondbacks 55-56.

Who wins the AL East?

The Toronto Blue Jays were five games up on Sept. 16 but have gone 2-6 while the New York Yankees have gone 6-1 -- so now, the two teams are tied. Toronto does own the tiebreaker, having won the season series 8-5. The Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles to finish up while the Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays. Scheduled starters:

Blue Jays: Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman

Yankees: Undecided, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil

The Yankees started Max Fried on Wednesday and Carlos Rodon on Thursday, with an eye turned to starting them in the first two games of a wild-card series, so they're out of the picture this weekend. Will Warren is the likely starter on Friday.

The interesting name here is Yesavage, who has made just two career starts (allowing five runs in nine innings) after a recent call-up from the minors, where he posted a 3.12 ERA with an incredible 160 strikeouts in just 98 innings. The Blue Jays have already moved Jose Berrios to the bullpen, so it's possible that Yesavage is part of the postseason rotation alongside Gausman and Bieber, with Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt the other possibilities.

The other factor in play: If Gausman, who has been Toronto's top starter in the second half with a 2.49 ERA, is needed Sunday to secure the division title, that would leave him out of the wild-card series if the Blue Jays end up finishing second in the division.

The AL's top seed remains in play, with the red-hot Seattle Mariners a game behind the Yankees and Blue Jays. The Mariners do lose the tiebreaker to both teams, so they would have to finish with the better record to secure the No. 1 seed. The Mariners host the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish the season.

Can Cal Raleigh catch Aaron Judge?

Raleigh's improbable season continues and after hitting home runs No. 59 and No. 60 in Wednesday's AL West-clinching win for the Mariners, he's two away from tying Judge's AL record of 62.

Of course, "catch" has another meaning here: Can Raleigh catch Judge in the MVP race? Maybe he already has, as voters might find it impossible to ignore a catcher who has hit 60 home runs. Oddsmakers currently have Raleigh as the very slight betting favorite. But Judge, with another historic offensive season under his belt, holds a sizable lead in Baseball-Reference WAR, a metric voters won't ignore. If Raleigh manages to get to 62, it can only help his case.

How many 50-home-run seasons will we have?

Other than the Raleigh Watch, it feels like the barrage of 50-homer seasons has flown a bit under the radar. We also have Kyle Schwarber with 56, Shohei Ohtani with 54 and Aaron Judge with 51 -- matching 1998 (Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr., Greg Vaughn) and 2001 (Barry Bonds, Sosa, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez) as the only seasons with four 50-homer sluggers. In fact, no other season has more than two.

But we could get five 50-home-run hitters with Eugenio Suarez sitting on 49, looking to join his Mariners teammate in the exclusive club. Suarez hit 36 of those home runs with Arizona before the trade to Seattle, but if he gets to 50, the Mariners will match the 1961 Yankees with Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54) as the only team to employ two 50-homer hitters in the same season.

As for Schwarber, he's two home runs away from tying Ryan Howard's franchise record of 58, while Ohtani has already matched his own club record he set last season.

Who wins the NL batting title?

While Judge has the AL batting title locked up, the NL race is down to the Philadelphia Phillies' Trea Turner, hitting .305, and the Chicago Cubs' Nico Hoerner hitting .299, who will need a big weekend to catch Turner. Turner has been out since Sept. 7 with a hamstring injury but has taken live batting practice and might return this weekend, although manager Rob Thomson just said on Wednesday that Turner is still running at only 75%. At least it looks like the winner will finish with a .300 average; if Turner returns, he would have to go 0-for-11 to fall under .300.

Will Colorado Rockies starters make history?

This is the Rockies we're talking about, so you already know it isn't a good kind of history. They enter their final series at San Francisco with a rotation ERA of 6.64, tied with the 1996 Tigers as the worst in modern MLB history (since 1901). A few random factors about Rockies starters:

• They have thrown 100 pitches in a game just twice all season: Kyle Freeland threw 100 pitches on April 8 and German Marquez threw 103 on June 29.

• The only Rockies starter to pitch eight innings in a game: Freeland threw eight scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Padres -- at Coors Field -- on Sept. 5.

• The Rockies have three starters with at least 15 losses (Freeland, Marquez and Antonio Senzatela), the first team to do that since the 2003 Tigers.

• Rockies starters have allowed seven or more runs in a game 26 times.

We could keep going. It was an ugly season in Colorado.

Will this be Clayton Kershaw's final start or game?

The future Hall of Famer announced his retirement last week and made his final start at Dodger Stadium last Friday, but he's scheduled to start the season finale on Sunday in Seattle. With the Dodgers' postseason rotation likely to feature Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, Kershaw looks like the odd man out. Keep in mind, though, that Ohtani has had at least six days off between all of his starts, and Snell has also had five or six days off for his starts, so it's possible the Dodgers will use more than four starters in the postseason.

Kershaw pitched an inning in relief on Wednesday, making himself available rather than throwing his usual bullpen session between starts. It's possible he pitches in relief in the postseason.

"We have six amazing starters," Kershaw said. "And so it's just ... yeah, I can do the math. So if I want to be a part of it in any way, I'll do whatever they want."

With the Dodgers relegated to the best-of-three first round, however, there's the chance he never gets in a game if they're quickly eliminated.

With that in mind: Watch Sunday's Dodgers game. It might be the last time you see one of the best pitchers of all time.