Week 8 recap: Ravens win and cover after Lamar Jackson injury report debacle

Things were bleak for the Baltimore Ravens headed into their Week 7 bye. Super Bowl co-favorites entering the season, the Ravens had lost and failed to cover in five of their first six games, giving them the worst record against the spread in the NFL through six weeks.

But there was a light at the end of the tunnel. Two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson, who had missed two games due to a hamstring injury, was being rumored to return following the bye, a notion backed up by the fact that he practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and Thursday before logging a full practice Friday to give him a questionable tag heading into the weekend, per Baltimore's injury report.

Oddsmakers -- and some respected bettors -- seemed to believe Jackson would be back, too. The Ravens opened as 6.5-point home favorites over the Chicago Bears and grew to minus-7.5 on Friday at ESPN BET. Up to that point, approximately two-thirds of the bets and money wagered was on the underdog Bears plus the points. Elsewhere, though, sportsbooks such as the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas and Caesars Sportsbook reported receiving bets on the Ravens from sharp bettors.

Then Saturday arrived and threw a massive wrench into everything. That morning, reports emerged that Jackson had, in fact, led the scout team offense during Friday's practice, indicating he would not start Sunday's game. Baltimore retroactively changed Jackson's Friday participation to limited before ruling him out for the game and announcing that Tyler Huntley would start.

The sportsbooks' responses were swift. ESPN BET initially moved the Ravens to minus-3.5 and took that back up to minus-4.5 but then came all the way down to minus-2.5, where it remained going into kickoff.

Oddsmakers at the SuperBook were stunned Saturday when Jackson went from questionable to out. Throughout the week, sharp bettors, known to have good information, had been betting on the Ravens at the SuperBook, vice president John Murray told ESPN.

"When we saw those wagers, we never would have expected him to be out this weekend," Murray said.

Joey Feazel, who oversees the football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said the book took a bet from an influential bettor on the Ravens minus-6.5 and pushed the line up to minus-7 on Friday, but overall, the betting interest on the game was lower than normal. Only the Miami Dolphins-Atlanta Falcons game attracted less money than Bears-Ravens at Caesars.

"We remained cautious throughout the week in anticipation of potential news developments, particularly with the Ravens slated for a [Week 9] Thursday night appearance, where a return from Jackson always seemed more probable," Feazel told ESPN. "This caution was further reinforced by our trading team's prior experiences; each time we leaned toward the Ravens this season, the results have proven costly."

Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point casino in Las Vegas, said the abrupt change to Jackson's status led to "a lot of potential damage."

"I had a guy make a big money-line bet on the Bears before the news broke," Andrews told ESPN. "Then, a few [bettors] took bigger points than they were entitled to. But the game wound up OK for us, once the Ravens won and covered."

In the end, Jackson-less Baltimore made a statement, beating Chicago 30-16 to cover the original opening number. With lots of public money backing the Bears before and after the news, it seemingly worked out fine for the books. But erratic injury reporting definitely ruffled some feathers.

ESPN's Jamison Henley reported Saturday that the league office will investigate the Ravens' handling of the situation.

In 2023, the Atlanta Falcons were fined $75,000 and then-head coach Arthur Smith was fined $25,000 after running back Bijan Robinson barely played in a Week 7 game due to illness. The Falcons never updated their injury report, thus violating the rules.

The controversy comes while injury reporting is under increased scrutiny after two NBA players were accused of manipulating their performance by removing themselves from games to benefit their associates' bets. It remains to be seen what the consequences will be in the Ravens' situation, but the current anxiety around injuries and sports betting is as high as it has ever been.

Odds & Ends

• The NFL celebrated its annual National Tight Ends Day on Sunday, and bettors leaned into the holiday by making George Kittle, Tyler Warren and Dallas Goedert, respectively, the most-bet anytime touchdown scorers by tickets and handle at ESPN BET. Kittle and Goedert came through for the bettors, with the latter finding the end zone twice, but Warren was unable to record a TD.

• Nine of 11 NFL games this week went over the total ahead of the Sunday night game.

• Sunday was a big day for the AFC East. The New England Patriots (-6.5) extended their cover streak to five games with a 32-13 win over the Cleveland Browns, while the Buffalo Bills (-7.5) took care of business with a 40-9 win and cover over the Carolina Panthers. In the same early afternoon window, the Dolphins (+6.5 at Atlanta Falcons) and New York Jets (+5.5 at Cincinnati Bengals) got big outright underdog wins, with the latter being the Jets' first victory of the season.

• The Jets were as long as +2000 on the live money line at ESPN BET before making a comeback for the win, and it ended as the team's largest upset victory since Week 6 of 2023, per ESPN Research.

• The Bengals' loss hit hard for the 20% of players who picked them in ESPN's Eliminator Challenge, the most of any team in Week 8. In the $1,000 entry Circa Survivor pool, the Falcons (32.9%) and Bengals (18.2%) were the second- and third-most selected teams, respectively.

• Meanwhile, four entrants failed to make their picks before the deadline in Circa Survivor, instantly eliminating them from the competition. The implied value per entry going into the week was $4,446, per Circa.

• With their loss and missed cover, the Browns are 0-9 ATS in their past nine road games, tying the longest such NFL streak in the past 40 seasons, per ESPN Research.

• NBA: Fourteen of the first 16 games of the NBA season went over the total, and overs were 23-10 entering Sunday's games. At 69.7%, that's the highest percentage of overs to start a season in the past 35 years. (ESPN's NBA odds database goes back through the 1990-91 season.)

• MLB: The Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday were listed as -185 favorites over the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 3 of the World Series. That's the biggest favorite for a Game 3 of the World Series since 2019, when the Houston Astros were -225 over the Washington Nationals.