Week 18 betting guide: Back Lawrence, Cowboys-Giants to play lights-out

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet.

With that, let's dive in to Week 18.

Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Note: Defensive prop bets will be added as they become available.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -2.5 (-117)

Bowen: I expect a heavy run approach from Ben Johnson's team here versus a Detroit defense that is surrendering 5.9 YPC over its past four games. And the Bears are playing to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. Let's take Chicago to cover at home.

Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 (-108) vs. Cleveland Browns

Solak: The quietest storyline of December is the improvement of the Bengals' defense. Since Week 10, the Bengals' defense is 11th in success rate and 16th in EPA per play -- totally average! It is still surrendering a preposterous number of explosive plays, which is the only way the Browns' offense can succeed. But without rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr., who is unlikely to go with the groin injury he reaggravated in Week 17, it will be difficult for the Browns to find those explosives.

The Browns' defense had a great game against the toothless Pittsburgh Steelers offense, but it doesn't travel well, and its games previous to the Steelers matchup weren't to the standard of the early-season production (23 points allowed to the Buffalo Bills, 31 to the Browns, 31 to the Titans, 26 to the San Francisco 49ers). The Bengals are playing hard even after having been eliminated from the playoffs and should finish the season strong.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: Over 50.5 (-115)

Bowen: A late-season throwaway matchup with two defenses giving up over 26 points a game. And Dak Prescott is playing. The over hits here.

Los Angeles Rams -7.5 (-105) vs. Arizona Cardinals (-105)

Solak: Sean McVay is clearly upset with his offense, emphatically saying after the loss to the Atlanta Falcons that the Rams would play their starters in Week 18 against the Cardinals. Should the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday, a Rams win would secure the No. 5 seed, which is a big deal, as playing the NFC South champion is much different than playing the potential 3-seed Philadelphia Eagles. But if the 49ers win, this game is meaningless for seeding.

I still like the Rams pregame, and if the line moves following a 49ers win Saturday, I'll likely hit it again. McVay clearly wants a confidence win, which spells a big scoreboard before he considers pulling his starters. Even if Matthew Stafford gets the early hook, Jimmy Garoppolo is a backup capable of scoring points. And we haven't even considered how terribly uninterested in competing the Cardinals have looked over the past few weeks.

Seth Walder's defensive props

Chiefs D/ST to score anytime touchdown (+500)

Even with Patrick Mahomes out for the year, the Chiefs are still 5.5-point road favorites over the Las Vegas Raiders, who will likely stumble their way to the No. 1 pick. The Raiders will likely be behind in this game, having Kenny Pickett and/or Aidan O'Connell in at quarterback in clear passing situations. That's when the strip sacks come, that's when the interceptions come, and the Chiefs' defense should absolutely be able to get the best of the Raiders' offense and have an opportunity for a score.

Offensive player props

Riley Leonard over 18.5 completions (-101)

Solak: Leonard will get the final start for the eliminated Indianapolis Colts, as they shelve Philip Rivers after his three-game encore performance. Banking on a rookie who is making his first career start to accumulate completions against the ferocious Houston Texans defense feels foolish, but when Leonard got dropped into the game against the Jaguars following Daniel Jones' injury, he completed 18 of 29 passes (62%) and looked far more comfortable than you might expect.

The Texans are playing their starters, hoping that a win (and a Jaguars loss to the Titans) hands them the division. As such, I expect a big first-half lead from Houston's leading group, which creates garbage time opportunities for Leonard to dink and dunk his way down the field. I'll be looking to take this live at halftime if the Colts are getting creamed.

Riley Leonard under 169.5 yards passing

Bowen: The Texans' defense is allowing just 5.7 YPA this season, third fewest in the league. That's a tough spot for a rookie quarterback making his first pro start. I'm taking the under.

Trevor Lawrence 34-plus pass attempts (+160)

Walder: That the Jacksonville Jaguars are 13.5-point favorites over Tennessee is the reason this prop is what it is. And while it's true that there's blowout potential that could lead to Jacksonville running heavily in the second half to wind out the clock, there's another factor that causes my model to lean toward the over more than the market: the Tennessee defense. The Titans' defense ranks first in pass rate over expectation allowed, meaning that -- after factoring in-game situations -- opponents pass on Tennessee more often than any other team.

To make things better, the Jaguars' defense ranks second in this category, so this game could feature a lot more throwing than otherwise expected, as long as the Jags don't pull away too far too early. Fortunately, the Jaguars play in the early window Sunday, ahead of the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, the teams the Jaguars are battling for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. So, they won't be able to scoreboard watch, and, therefore, will want to play to win until the end.

Trevor Lawrence over 246.5 passing yards

Bowen: Lawrence has thrown for at least 263 yards in three straight games. And he's delivering the ball to multiple levels of the field. Take the over here against a Titans defense allowing 261.3 passing yards per game over their past four.

Kyle Monangai anytime TD (+115)

Bowen: Monangai hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 13, but he has had a rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line in three straight games. Monangai is at his best when he can play downhill. Keep the pads square and get in the end zone.

Kirk Cousins under 216.5 passing yards (-112)

Solak: The New Orleans Saints are one of the heavier run-funnel defenses in football. Opposing offenses run the ball 45% of the time against them, which is second only to the Minnesota Vikings' defense. Even adjusting for game script, the Saints are still eighth in run rate over expectation seen from opposing offenses. This is structural; it's how defensive coordinator Brandon Staley plays. With Cousins under center, the Atlanta Falcons skew enormously run-heavy in general (9.5% run rate over expectation), as Cousins regularly checks into runs at the line of scrimmage when he likes the defensive look. With Drake London still clearly less than 100 percent, it's hard to buy into this Falcons passing attack, even if they do need to drop back. Feels like an under spot.

Caleb Williams over 0.5 interceptions (+145)

Walder: Williams has done a good job avoiding interceptions this season, throwing just six all year. That's why we're getting such solid plus money on his over. But one factor my model considers that pushes us toward the over: dropped interceptions. It's a category that Williams actually is tied for the league lead in, with four. He has been fortunate to have so many of his interceptable passes dropped. Had a couple more of those been caught, I suspect this line would be more favorable to the over. My model makes the fair price here +110.