An advanced analytics look at Panthers-Bucs, Seahawks-49ers, Ravens-Steelers

Week 18 is primed to be a weekend to remember. Saturday features potential division-clinching matchups, and Sunday night will conclude the regular season with one of the league's best rivalries.

There are two remaining playoff spots up for grabs, along with four divisions that have yet to be decided: the AFC North, AFC South, NFC West and NFC South.

The AFC North is down to the Baltimore Ravens (8-8) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) in a win-or-go-home matchup. It's similar to the Carolina Panthers (8-8) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) for the NFC South crown.

The only caveat is the Panthers can still make the playoffs if they lose and the favored Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers, Panthers and Falcons would have a three-way tie at 8-9, but the Panthers would hold the tiebreaker because they have the best head-to-head record among the three (3-1).

The AFC South comes down to whether the Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) can beat the Tennessee Titans. If they lose, the Houston Texans (11-5) would also have to beat the Indianapolis Colts to overtake the Jaguars to claim their third straight divisional title. The tiebreaker would go to Houston because it would have a 5-1 divisional record, while Jacksonville would have finished 4-2.

The NFC West is a flashback to 2019 when the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers battled in the last week of the season for the division title. That time, the 49ers won and clinched the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC en route to a Super Bowl berth. Similarly, this time the winner clinches the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.

Here are some Next Gen Stats breaking down each game.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

DraftKings line: Bucs favored by 2.5

The Panthers don't blitz often, but it might help them to turn up the volume as Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has recorded the second-lowest completion percentage (50.7%) and the fewest yards per attempt (5.2) against the blitz this season.

The Panthers give up a passer rating of 74.2, fifth lowest, when a quarterback holds the ball for at least 2.5 seconds. Mayfield has a passer rating of 80.7 when holding the ball for at least 2.5 seconds while only completing 54% of his throws.

So, making Mayfield hold the ball by utilizing their disguised coverages -- the Panthers rank 12th in using disguised coverages (23.3%) -- would seem to be Carolina's best strategy.

The two best rookie receivers go head-to-head in this game in the Buccaneers' Emeka Egbuka (930 receiving yards) and the Panthers' Tetairoa McMillan (929). They're the only two rookie WRs with at least 900 receiving yards heading into Week 18.

Egbuka and McMillan are tied for second among all players with four touchdown receptions on deep passes (20-plus air yards). No other rookie has more than two.

Egbuka started hot on the deep shots and currently ranks eighth in deep receiving yards (307). But he has only one deep reception in the past 11 games (40 yards). Through Week 5, he had 267 deep receiving yards, first in the NFL.

McMillan has become a more of a deep threat since Week 12. He's tied for the league lead with three deep touchdowns.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

DraftKings line: Seahawks favored by 1.5

San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh loves Cover 4. The 49ers have played Cover 4 at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season (25.5%) but have given up 9 yards per target (sixth most) in Cover 4.

Seattle star wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has shredded the coverage. He totaled a league-high 33 receptions for 546 yards against Cover 4, almost 200 yards more than any other player since at least 2018. Smith-Njigba has a 44.6% target rate against that coverage with 5.4 yards per route, both the highest marks of any player since 2018 (minimum 50 routes).

Christian McCaffrey has 61 receptions matched up against linebackers this season, 18 more than any other player league-wide.#SFvsIND | #FTTBpic.twitter.com/Sxa0Y1mX2z

On downfield throws of 10 or more air yards, Smith-Njigba has league best of 1,196 yards and eight touchdowns. No other player has 1,000 yards on those throws.

For San Francisco, quarterback Brock Purdy holding onto the ball leads to good results. Purdy is one of only two quarterbacks to average a time to throw of 3 or more seconds this season -- his 3.19-second mark is quicker than that of only Caleb Williams (3.21 seconds).

In the past three games, Purdy has the league's highest passer rating (136.9) by almost 20 points on throws that took longer than 2.5 seconds to release, throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions.

But the Seahawks give up a passer rating of 72 when quarterbacks hold the ball for at least 2.5 seconds.

There's little doubt Purdy will be facing significant pressure. The Seahawks' defense has generated the fourth-highest pressure rate this season (39.1%) despite blitzing at the eighth-lowest rate (22.9%).

Seattle is doing it with pressure from defensive tackles Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams. They've combined for 88 pressures this season, the most by a DT duo. And they're not alone. In fact, there are five Seahawks with 40 or more pressures. No other team has more than three.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

DraftKings line: Ravens favored by 3.5

This could be quarterback Aaron Rodgers' final NFL game, and the stakes are huge. The 42-year old leans heavily on quick passing as he has averaged a time to throw of 2.61 seconds this season, the quickest in the NFL and the quickest in any season since at least 2016. When getting the ball out quick (under 2.5 seconds), Rodgers has thrown for the second-most yards (1,623) and is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns (13).

In the previous Steelers-Ravens matchup in Week 14 -- a 27-22 Steelers win -- Rodgers did attack down the field. He completed all three of his deep passes, a season high, for 121 yards. And all of the targets went to Pro Bowl wide receiver DK Metcalf. But for the season, Rodgers has completed 11 of 37 passes over 20 yards (29.7%), the eighth lowest in the NFL. This could be a tough task with Metcalf suspended for Sunday's game.

Both teams in this matchup love the "I got that cat" coverage.

The Steelers' defense has played man coverage on 36.8% of opposing dropbacks this season, the fifth-highest rate. But, when Pittsburgh is in man coverage, it has given up the eighth-most yards per attempt (6.9) and are tied for fourth in touchdowns (19) allowed.

Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. hasn't been an issue in man coverage though. He has played 1,444 consecutive coverage snaps without giving up a touchdown, the longest active streak among cornerbacks. His last touchdown allowed was in Week 8 of his rookie season in 2023. Porter has made a play on the ball on 21.5% of his targets this season, the fifth-highest rate among cornerbacks with at least 50 targets, helping him to a 53.8% completion percentage (15th lowest).

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who appears ready to go after sitting out last week's game at Green Bay because of a back bruise, has a passer rating of 101.8 against man with 11 touchdowns to two interceptions. But his total EPA ranks near the bottom at No. 25.

Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers has excelled against man -- netting 27 receptions, tied for the fourth most in the NFL, and 394 yards, fifth most. Against the Steelers' man coverage in Week 14, Flowers had a career-high 79 yards.

The Ravens have utilized man coverage on 33.6% of dropbacks this season, the seventh highest, but they given up a passer rating of 77.2, ninth lowest.

Rodgers has recorded the fifth-lowest completion rate (50.8%) and 12th-fewest yards per attempt (6) against man. He was successful against the Ravens' man coverage in Week 14 though, completing 8 of 14 passes for a season-high 165 yards and a touchdown.