Biggest questions, projections and more: Storylines to watch ahead of NBA playoffs

4 hours ago 4

Mar 18, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

The NBA is less than a month away from turning the page on the 2025-26 regular season to the playoffs. Competition across the league is intensifying as Eastern and Western conference teams are working to secure their spots in the postseason -- or turning their attention to the offseason.

Some teams are fine-tuning and evaluating their play as the postseason landscape remains in flux. Others are grappling with how different their squads could look next season. Regardless of the standings, the last month of the regular season is hectic for all 30 teams, especially those positioning for seeding in the playoffs -- or play-in tournament.

Our ESPN insiders answer the biggest questions facing the East and West title contenders and discuss what each is focusing on in their remaining regular-season games.

Jump to a topic:
East: BOS | CLE | DET | NYK | MIL
West: GSW | HOU | LAL | MIN | OKC | SAS
Leaguewide questions

Biggest questions facing East teams

What's been the source of the Detroit Pistons' late-season struggles and how can they adjust in the postseason?

The Pistons' defense has taken a dip since the All-Star break, and it's contributed to losses that have brought about doubts. In their 40-13 start, their defense was second in the league at 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Since going 9-6 after the break, Detroit's defense is still top 10, but at 112.1 points per 100 possessions. Their superpower is making sure teams can't play their best.

Their shot creation will come up in the postseason, and there's only so much they can do around Cade Cunningham in the meantime. But they can control defensive intensity, and rediscovering that will go a long way toward success this season. -- Vincent Goodwill

How will the Boston Celtics handle Jayson Tatum's minutes over the next month?

In a similar fashion to how they have the first week: gradually ramping up his minutes to prepare him for what Boston hopes is a deep playoff run. In his first three games, Tatum played 27 minutes before increasing to 32 minutes in his fourth and fifth games. The Celtics have another month to build him up to a playoff workload and expect them to take full advantage of that. -- Tim Bontemps

Are the New York Knicks better off one year after firing Tom Thibodeau?

The numbers say New York is a game better than last year's pace, but it doesn't feel like it. The Knicks have improved with a top-five offense and a top-10 defense, both better than last season. That's largely attributed to the narrative around Thibs teams being historically great defensively, the Knicks' up-and-down nature this season and the enormous, often suffocating expectations. The starters' minutes are down as Mike Brown has a deeper rotation.

The vibes don't feel great right now -- but the vibes weren't great last year, either. The true test will come in May and possibly June. The passage of time seems to color last year in ways that aren't necessarily true. There's an opportunity in front of the Knicks, and it's time they recognize that. -- Goodwill

How has James Harden given the Cleveland Cavaliers the confidence that he can help push the team past the Pistons, Celtics and Knicks?

The Cavs have gone 12-6 since making the trade for Harden, including going 11-4 in games with him in the lineup, and are looking much more like the team that began the season as one of the favorites in the conference. Cleveland has the second-best offensive rating in the NBA since the deadline as Harden's passing has elevated the team on that side of the ball: He's relieved an overtaxed Donovan Mitchell, unlocked Jarrett Allen in the pick-and-roll and delivered easy passes and wide-open looks for the shooters around him.

Most importantly for the Cavs, Harden has been available, a key reason why they wanted an upgrade for Darius Garland and why coach Kenny Atkinson told ESPN Harden's arrival has given his team a "renewed confidence." -- Jamal Collier

How will the next month impact Giannis Antetokounmpo's and Doc Rivers' futures in Milwaukee?

Not much. Time has been the Bucks' fallback plan throughout their yearlong staredown with Antetokounmpo. The team has insisted throughout its disappointing campaign that there was still enough time either for an in-season turnaround, to rebuild as a contender or to convince Antetokounmpo to sign another extension to remain in Milwaukee.

Yet, the reality of the standings (trailing the No. 10 seed by 5½ games) and the chasm between Milwaukee and true contenders is evident. No matter how the final month of the season ends, the Bucks will have to face that reality this summer. -- Collier

Projected end-of-season East standings

What's the one East game you have circled on your calendar?

I'm going to cheat and pick two because the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat meet on April 7 and April 9 in Toronto. As of Tuesday afternoon, Toronto leads Miami by a half-game, so the outcome of that two-game series could determine which team receives an automatic playoff berth and which team must navigate a tricky play-in field. -- Zach Kram

Other important games for the playoff race:

Biggest questions facing West teams

How concerning is the Oklahoma City Thunder's injury issues one month from the playoffs?

Jalen Williams' hamstring is the Thunder's one significant injury concern at this point. Oklahoma City will have to proceed with caution after he aggravated the strain in his second game after returning just before the All-Star break. The hope is that Williams, who missed the first 19 games while recovering from offseason wrist surgery and has been sidelined almost all of the past two months, will be able to play his way into a rhythm by the time the playoffs begin.

The Thunder can afford to be patient as they are 36-8 without Williams in the lineup this season and have an three-game cushion over the Spurs at the top of the West standings. But Oklahoma City knows how critical Williams is to its hopes of defending a title. His 40-point outing in Game 5 of last season's NBA Finals might have been the most important individual performance in franchise history. -- Tim MacMahon

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs haven't yet made the playoffs. How high is their confidence level heading into the regular season's final stretch?

It's soaring, especially after San Antonio racked up a 5-1 record in a six-game homestand that featured impressive victories over expected postseason participants Detroit, the LA Clippers, Rockets, Celtics and Hornets. The Spurs entered the homestand welcoming the diversity of playing styles, personnel and potential on-court situations they would encounter as they looked to sharpen up for the stretch run and their first playoff berth since 2019.

Wembanyama missed one game during the homestand due to an ankle injury, but he returned to produce his fifth straight game with 25 points on 50% shooting or better from the field to tie LaMarcus Aldridge (2018) for the third-longest streak of such games by a Spur in the past 25 seasons. -- Michael C. Wright

After back-to-back trips to the West finals, what can the Minnesota Timberwolves do in the next month to show that the team is ready for another deep playoff run?

It would be ideal if the Timberwolves could establish some consistency. Minnesota's roller-coaster act can be maddening, but the past couple of seasons featured plenty of ups and downs and ended with conference finals runs. The Wolves have slipped significantly on the defensive end this season, ranking ninth in efficiency, down from sixth last season and first in 2023-24.

They've been especially bad since the All-Star break, allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 21st during that span. That is a trend that must end for Minnesota to make another run. Wolves phenom Anthony Edwards is also dealing with right knee soreness, and he will be reevaluated in one to two weeks. -- MacMahon

Can the Houston Rockets play in the Western Conference playoffs without a true point guard?

Absolutely. But it's unlikely they'll play long if they can't shore up some of the other issues -- such as turnovers and closing games -- that have affected this team all season. Without a true point guard, Houston believes it can scheme around deficiencies at the position, according to an assistant, who said the Rockets could draw up plays that make Amen Thompson more effective offensively, while manipulating schemes to protect defensive liability Reed Sheppard on the other end.

Houston also needs center Alperen Sengun to shake off his recent defensive struggles, while sharpening his acumen as a hub on offense. -- Wright

How are the Los Angeles Lakers mitigating the fact that, by the numbers, they're a less effective team with their three stars (Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves) on the floor together?

Whether his answer was fueled by experience, patience, or just blind faith, Lakers coach JJ Redick presented a clear vision when asked about his team's chances in the final stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs.

"I'm confident we're going to find it," Redick said last week. "How we're going to find it, that's where it's ... you got to figure it out on a daily basis sometimes."

While their big three's net rating is a positive (plus-3.2 in 20 games played with one another), their individual pairings are not all alike. James and Doncic have a net rating of minus-2.1, James and Reaves are plus-1.2 -- Reaves and Doncic are plus-8.0. Redick has attempted to smooth the fit two ways: by staggering the minutes they play together, allowing James to play more on ball with the second unit, and by asking James to embrace being more complementary than featured when on the floor with those two.

"I know he wants to win, and he wants to do everything possible to help this team win," Redick said of James. -- Dave McMenamin

Will Stephen Curry's return be enough to buoy the Golden State Warriors?

Into any level of fringe contention? Nope. Jimmy Butler III's ACL tear unofficially ended those dreams. But there's still a competitive team within the leftover roster, as long as Kristaps Porzingis is available and Curry is back and revved up for the play-in bracket. It's becoming increasingly clear the Warriors will have to play out of the nine against 10 slot.

That means they will need to beat the Portland Trail Blazers in an elimination game and then beat the loser of a matchup that would currently be between the Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers. If they pull that off -- needing Curry -- they will be rewarded with the West's top seed, likely the Oklahoma City Thunder, in the first round. The path back to relevancy this season is daunting. -- Anthony Slater

Projected end-of-season West standings

What's the one West game you have circled on your calendar?

The Denver Nuggets should remain a top-six team in the West, thanks to a fairly easy schedule down the stretch. (Two of the Nuggets' hardest remaining games are against the Thunder and Spurs to close the regular season, but those teams could be locked into their seeds and resting for the playoffs at that point.)

But if the Nuggets lose to the Suns on March 24, things could get interesting. Denver would surely prefer to avoid the play-in tournament and a potential first-round matchup with either San Antonio or Oklahoma City. -- Kram

Other important games for the playoff race: