NHL playoff watch: Are the Penguins and Islanders destined for a first-round matchup?

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ESPN staffMar 30, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

There have been a number of permutations of Eastern Conference playoff teams in the past few weeks beyond the Buffalo Sabres, Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes, who appear pretty stable in their positions atop the Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions, respectively.

Two of the teams that have been riding the teacups are the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders.

The ship probably has sailed on either club catching the Canes for the No. 1 seed in the division, but both are squarely in the mix for the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds; and if the pair do wind up in those slots, they'd square off in the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Monday is the final regular-season matchup between the clubs (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network), and they've split the season series to this point. So this final game will have a major impact on the standings.

Heading into Monday's game, the Isles will be in the No. 2 position, with 89 points and 28 regulation wins through 74 games; the Penguins are No. 3, with 88 points and 29 regulation wins through 73 games. What are the chances they wind up matched up in Round 1?

According to Stathletes projections, there is a 27.03% chance of Penguins-Islanders being one of the first matchups in the 2026 bracket. But there's a greater chance that the third Metro team in the mix -- the Columbus Blue Jackets -- takes the Isles' place; Stathletes projects a Penguins-Blue Jackets first-round series occurring in 33.34% of simulations.

Given the small margins, expect this race to come right down to the final days of the regular season.

Every team has no more than 11 games remaining before the regular season concludes April 16, and we'll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch every day. As we traverse the final stretch, we'll provide details on all the playoff races -- along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today's schedule
Last night's scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
A2 Buffalo Sabres vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
M2 New York Islanders vs. M3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Vegas Golden Knights

Today's games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, 8:30 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks, 10 p.m.

Last night's scoreboard

New York Rangers 3, Florida Panthers 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Nashville Predators 2
Montreal Canadiens 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Boston Bruins 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
New Jersey Devils 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Dallas Stars 1 (OT)

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Tampa Bay Lightning

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: vs. MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 6
Tragic number: N/A

Buffalo Sabres

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 108.6
Next game: vs. NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 6
Tragic number: N/A

Montreal Canadiens

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98.1%
Magic number: 10
Tragic number: N/A

Boston Bruins

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 102.0
Next game: vs. DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 81.2%
Magic number: 12
Tragic number: N/A

Ottawa Senators

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 96.6
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 69.3%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 17

Detroit Red Wings

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 96.6
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 24.9%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 17

Toronto Maple Leafs

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ ANA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 4

Florida Panthers

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 4

Metro Division

Carolina Hurricanes

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: @ CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 6
Tragic number: N/A

New York Islanders

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 98.6
Next game: vs. PIT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 62.4%
Magic number: 15
Tragic number: N/A

Pittsburgh Penguins

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 98.9
Next game: @ NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 73.1%
Magic number: 16
Tragic number: N/A

Columbus Blue Jackets

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 97.5
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 68.3%
Magic number: 16
Tragic number: N/A

Philadelphia Flyers

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 96.6
Next game: @ WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 16.4%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 16

Washington Capitals

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 92.0
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.3%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 11

New Jersey Devils

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 87.6
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 8

e - New York Rangers

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: OUT

Central Division

x - Colorado Avalanche

Points: 106
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 120.7
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Magic number: IN
Tragic number: N/A

Minnesota Wild

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 104.2
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 1
Tragic number: N/A

Utah Mammoth

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 90.9
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98.5%
Magic number: 13
Tragic number: N/A

Nashville Predators

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: @ LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 17.3%
Magic number: 18
Tragic number: N/A

Winnipeg Jets

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 15

St. Louis Blues

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ SJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 14%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 16

Chicago Blackhawks

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 74.2
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 6

Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 96.6
Next game: vs. TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Magic number: 9
Tragic number: N/A

Edmonton Oilers

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 92.0
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 96.8%
Magic number: 12
Tragic number: N/A

Vegas Golden Knights

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 88.7
Next game: vs. VAN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 96.7%
Magic number: 15
Tragic number: N/A

Los Angeles Kings

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: vs. STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 24.7%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 17

Seattle Kraken

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 9.3%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 18

San Jose Sharks

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 84.3
Next game: vs. STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 40.4%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 18

Calgary Flames

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 78.6
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: 11

e - Vancouver Canucks

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 56.9
Next game: @ VGK (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Magic number: N/A
Tragic number: OUT

Note: An "x" with a team's name means the club has clinched a playoff spot. An "e" means that the club has been mathematically eliminated.

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Atop draft boards for this summer is Gavin McKenna, a forward for Penn State.