NHL playoff watch: Capitals in a must-win game against the Maple Leafs?

A year ago, the Washington Capitals were on their way to finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference and a first-round matchup against the Montreal Canadiens, which they won 4-1. Alex Ovechkin also finished off his historic chase of Wayne Gretzky's career goal-scoring record.

Ovechkin has added 31 goals to his ledger this season, but the Capitals' playoff status is nowhere near as secure as it was at the tail end of the 2024-25 campaign.

As the games begin Wednesday, the Caps are five points behind the Ottawa Senators for the second wild-card spot and two regulation wins behind. They are also five points behind the Philadelphia Flyers for the No. 3 seed in the Metro Division, with eight more regulation wins than the Flyers.

Unfortunately, there are three other teams between Washington and Ottawa (the Red Wings, Islanders and Blue Jackets) and two between the Capitals and Philly (New York and Columbus). So there's a path to the postseason for the Caps, but they will need some help.

The next step in the process is Wednesday's game against the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). This is not technically a must-win game, but there is not much wiggle room left. After Toronto, the Caps visit the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday (3 p.m. ET, ABC), then host the Pens in Washington, D.C., on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, TNT). Washington's final game of the season is Tuesday at the Blue Jackets (7 p.m., ESPN).

The projections are not buying a miraculous run here for the Capitals, with Stathletes giving them just a 4.0% chance of making the playoffs. But that's not zero, and Washington will certainly be battling to the bitter end.

Every team has six or fewer games remaining before the regular season concludes April 16, and we'll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we'll provide details on all the playoff races -- along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2026 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today's schedule
Last night's scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC1 Boston Bruins
A2 Buffalo Sabres vs. A3 Montreal Canadiens

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Ottawa Senators
M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild

P1 Edmonton Oilers vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
P2 Anaheim Ducks vs. P3 Vegas Golden Knights

Today's games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, 7 p.m. (TNT)
Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks, 10 p.m. (TNT)

Last night's scoreboard

Montreal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Ottawa Senators 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New Jersey Devils 1
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Boston Bruins 5 (OT)
Colorado Avalanche 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Utah Mammoth 6, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Vancouver Canucks 1
Nashville Predators 5, Anaheim Ducks 0

Expanded standings

Note: An "x" with a team's name means the club has clinched a playoff spot; a "y" means that they have clinched the division; a "z" indicates that they have clinched the best record in the conference. An "e" means that the club has been mathematically eliminated. Teams clinch a playoff spot when their magic number reaches zero and are mathematically eliminated when their tragic number reaches zero.

Atlantic Division

Metro Division

Central Division

Pacific Division

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Atop draft boards for this summer is Gavin McKenna, a forward for Penn State.

*Note: The Maple Leafs' pick belongs to the Bruins, unless it lands in the top five.