When will Cole return? Is Dominguez a trade candidate? What to expect from six make-or-break Yankees

Did the New York Yankees make a mistake by running it back? That question has been asked often this spring after a relatively quiet winter in the Bronx.

Last month, general manager Brian Cashman, summarizing the Yankees' offseason roster moves, said he did not enter the winter with the goal of reuniting last year's team. He explained that each individual transaction was made within the context of the free agent and trade markets. Timing, sequencing and pricing impacted each decision. It just so happened that almost every decision led to retaining a player.

"You start measuring that versus the alternatives and weighing that, and you try to make those informed decisions, and that's how it's played out," Cashman said.

As a result, 24 of the 26 players on a roster that was thrashed by the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series last October remain. The only two not with the club -- relievers Devin Williams and Luke Weaver -- signed free agent contracts with the New York Mets.

But team officials do not view the 2026 Yankees as the same as the 2025 Yankees. They point to the flurry of trade deadline deals that revamped the roster at midseason. Closer David Bednar, reliever Camilo Doval, third baseman Ryan McMahon, and utility players Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario were Yankees for less than three months. And officials believe that final iteration was a World Series contender that will be bolstered by ace Gerrit Cole's return during the season.

The run-it-back winter means there will be plenty of familiarity to start the season, but the Yankees' fate will depend in large part on a group of players unlikely to be in the lineup on Opening Day.

In addition to Cole, two prominent contributors are slated to return from injury before the All-Star break and another soon thereafter. Two young outfielders are unlikely to break camp with the team, leaving them as overqualified organizational depth -- and possible trade candidates for improvements in other areas.

With Opening Day a little more than two weeks away, here's a look at those six players and their current projections for the season ahead.

Gerrit Cole

Status: Recovering from Tommy John surgery

Projected return: Early June

Cole's progress has turned heads in spring training. First, manager Aaron Boone revealed Cole could pitch in a Grapefruit League game. Then Cole, unveiling a new windup, touched 97 mph the first time he faced hitters in batting practice at Steinbrenner Field.

But Cole has maintained he remains on his original timetable for return: 14 to 18 months after Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed the procedure on his right elbow last March. That means mid-May is the earliest he could rejoin the rotation. Barring a setback, June is the likelier result to ensure he's not rushed.

"It really hasn't changed," Cole said. "That's what the research says. That's what the comps that we've looked back at say, and that's where it's always been."

Time will tell whether Cole will return to his Cy Young form before the end of his age-35 season. If he can, the Yankees will add an ace to one of the stronger rotations in the majors.

Carlos Rodon

Status: Recovering from elbow surgery

Projected return: Early May

Rodón avoided Tommy John surgery, but elbow procedures are never minor for pitchers. The left-hander had loose bodies removed and a bone spur shaved down in October after dealing with pain for most of last season. Rodón said he couldn't lift his arm or even button his shirt when he posted a 3.09 ERA in 195⅓ innings across a league-leading 33 starts.

Now Rodón has his full range of motion back. He has thrown several bullpens, though not using any breaking pitches, since his procedure. The Yankees are targeting a late April or early May return. More time only helps, and the Yankees should not feel rushed to have him back on the mound, so May is the safe projection.

"Honestly, I can't be definitive with you and say, 'Hey, this is when I'm going to be ready,'" Rodón said last month. "There's a lot of ups and downs in any rehab process. The progression's a lot quicker than the normal elbow surgeries you hear about, which is Tommy John, a reconstructive surgery. I wish I could give you a definitive answer, [but] I'd probably be wrong if I did. I might be early, I might be late. And that's just how it is."

Anthony Volpe

Status: Recovering from shoulder surgery

Projected return: Mid-May

Volpe played through a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder for most of 2025 and underwent surgery shortly after the season. He has declined to blame the injury for his lack of production, but it surely didn't help.

Volpe, who turns 25 in April, recorded the worst of his three major league seasons last year. Defensively, he regressed significantly from a plus defender at shortstop. Offensively, he was well below average again, a discouraging sign for an organization that has been waiting for the former top prospect to take the next step.

He has not ruled out an April return, but Cashman has signaled that May is more likely. In the meantime, José Caballero will begin the season as the every-day shortstop. Cashman and Boone have expressed their continued faith in Volpe, but Cashman in December opened the door for Caballero to remain the starting shortstop if he plays well during Volpe's absence.

Another possibility -- though the least likely -- is the Yankees keep Volpe in Triple-A after his rehab stint. He has minor league options remaining. The Yankees could decide to let Volpe find his rhythm in a less pressurized setting. Chances are, however, that he rejoins the team when ready.

Clarke Schmidt

Status: Recovering from Tommy John surgery

Projected return: Mid-August

Schmidt was having another strong season -- 3.32 ERA across 14 starts -- when he was sidelined and had Tommy John surgery in July. It wasn't a complete reconstruction, so his recovery timeline is shorter, and he hopes to return soon after the All-Star break.

Things have a way of sorting themselves out in baseball, but it's conceivable that Schmidt could return as a reliever considering the Yankees' rotation will roll as deep as any if healthy. That would also allow for a lighter workload coming off the surgery late in the season.

Jasson Dominguez

Status: Outside looking in

Projection for Opening Day: Triple-A

Let's do the math here. Last month, Cashman acknowledged amassing every-day reps is in Dominguez's "best interest" while pointing out that Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham will be the Yankees' every-day outfielders. Add that Giancarlo Stanton is healthy and expected to start the season as the designated hitter and the Yankees recently invited veteran Randal Grichuk -- the right-handed-hitting outfielder they were seeking -- to camp, and Dominguez appears headed to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to start the season.

"We'll just have to wait and see how this spring shakes out, who's standing," Cashman said. "And then we'll make the appropriate decisions when we have our meetings close through the end of camp. So we'll see where it takes us. Obviously, there's flexibility with the roster with a lot of players that we can do a lot of different things with. Whether they're going to work with us or going to Triple-A, we'll have to wait and see."

Dominguez's candidacy for a roster spot is hurt by two limitations. The Yankees do not see him as a major league center fielder, which limits him to left field or designated hitter. And he was ineffective batting right-handed against left-handed pitching last season, slashing .204/.279/.290 with one home run in 104 plate appearances.

While becoming an adequate center fielder is unlikely, improvement as a right-handed hitter could lead to opportunity. Dominguez just turned 23 years old last month. He boasts elite speed. He has shown flashes hitting from the left side. But there probably isn't any room for him on the roster right now.

Spencer Jones

Status: Outside looking in

Projection for Opening Day: Triple-A

Jones is next on the organizational depth chart behind Dominguez. He turns 25 in May, has yet to make his major league debut, and is a virtual lock to begin the season in Triple-A.

While he's a true center fielder with some of the biggest pop in the minors -- he slugged 35 home runs last season -- Jones hasn't debuted because he whiffs too much. He compiled 179 strikeouts last season after 200 in 2024. His 35.4% strikeout rate last season would've ranked highest in the majors.

The glaring shortcoming, combined with his age, resulted in him falling off recent top 100 prospect lists and his trade value sinking. But he should receive the call in 2026 -- whether with the Yankees or another club -- if he remains healthy.

"Obviously, [he's] someone who really conquered a lot of things last year and pushed himself on the map, probably would be taking an everyday spot, trying to establish himself at the big league level maybe in some other organizations," Cashman said. "He's currently blocked with us."